Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Its on like Donkey Kong


Okay lets explain this theory step by step:

The days leading up to the FOMC 2 day announcement will be intense. Now ANYTHING can happen in between these days, although some like to think I'm Nostradamus, I'm not. Fortunately though, I think I know where they will get everyone out. It's a break of the trend line where the circle is. Its usually the day before the major run in the opposite direction after shaking all the longs, and getting all those dumb motherfuckers short-its the perfect storm for rallies like you've never seen. Usually they are on bottoms similar to MS (Morgan Stanley) candle yesterday where they penetrate the support briefly, set off some stops, gather some new moronic momos positions short, and then reverse it, turn on the buy algo's and go fuck hookers.

I have a feeling this may happen this time around. I cant possible see a scenario where we sell off again into the 30's. I just cant. We are entering the buying season for the physical, we are entering the November Comex Contract for silver, and the best month in December for Gold. Add in the fact that the world's financial systems are ready to print into oblivion to keep this ponzi going, add in the enormous commercial shorts, add in the position limits that may be changed, add in just about every black swan event, and we have whats called a TRADE ON!

I will be using any weakness that comes into the trend line to buy the physical. I am slowly distancing myself form the paper game and turning profits (and losses) into phyzz.

After seeing the metals reports I suspect a strong day for the PM's tomorrow as no leaves were shook, and the shorts will need to start covering going into this fuck job of a weekend.
Posted by at

49 comments:

  1. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 9:42 PM

    What are some ultra leveraged silver plays? I am stacked in AGQ, but wanted to know if there are others that I can play for a couple months to make the most out of this most obvious price surge in the coming weeks/months.

    And by the way, this is my casino money I am playing with - I already have my stacks of real metal.

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  2. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 9:53 PM

    Anybody try: HZU?

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  3. Adam ChalmersSeptember 13, 2011 at 9:57 PM

    I knew I should have sold my MS puts in the early afternoon on Monday!!! Guess I'll sell tomorrow and take a small hit. At least they didn't expire worthless.

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  4. zepsterSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:02 PM

    @reef - you could margin that AGQ.


    Well, PMs looking strong after hours so I'm thinking we're gonna see a good run here although back and fill wouldn't be the worst thing in the world...

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  5. MarkSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:07 PM

    @SGS:

    A few times during the last couple months you've said something to the effect that you're distancing yourself from the paper game and turning profits into phyzz.

    Does this mean that you soon plan to leave the paper game completely?...is it becoming that much more difficult to snatch cash off the table?

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  6. silvergoldsilverSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:14 PM

    "is it becoming that much more difficult to snatch cash off the table? "

    No. But as the intensity builds in this trade moving forward, its so much easier to have metal sit there and not have to baby sit it. lol. In this paper environment, its full time babysitting right now. The volatility is great, if you are on the desk from 9:30-4!

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  7. nitsujSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:30 PM

    Margining AGQ is like playing Russian roulette with 5 in the cylinder. Fuck that

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  8. Garry LindsaySeptember 13, 2011 at 10:33 PM

    A real sheep trough!

    http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/europe-s-largest-mall-opens-for-london-2012-26602776.html

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  9. Fast MoverSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:37 PM

    @SGS

    Would you mind commenting on AG low vol and OI? What can we expect with less small specs in the silver market?

    thx
    fm

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  10. highrise408September 13, 2011 at 10:39 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. highrise408September 13, 2011 at 10:41 PM

    First look at an actual 2012 Silver Dragon... looks nice...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrjKnisBs7I

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  12. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:43 PM

    zepster,

    Thanks for the tip on margining... but I will play it safe and loose only what I have. :)

    I am still long SVM @ 8.11, but if we rebound in the next day or two I'll sell and buy something else. Perhaps SIL miners index.

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  13. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:48 PM

    Garry, that's too funny. I'd be there on opening day, just to get all the freebies.... then I wouldn't be back again. Ghost mall in 3...2...1... [** KABOOM **]

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  14. Kaptain AmerikaSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:19 PM

    Loving eBay for my phyzz pick ups, every now and then you can find someone who doesn't know how to properly list an item and steal it.

    ReplyDelete
  15. bflowers1September 13, 2011 at 11:23 PM

    highrise408

    So on the Lunar series 1oz's Dragons, which is the bigger play, the standard or Proofs ? And what about the three coin set ? I picked up some half and two ounce Dragons..

    ReplyDelete
  16. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:25 PM

    @reefman,

    I have SIL since Aug, up 16%, was up 20% until the most recent beat down! When it comes to stocks I just hold.

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  17. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:26 PM

    I've seen the proofs for around a Bill, and the uncircs. for 200-300 is that helps!

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  18. Garry LindsaySeptember 13, 2011 at 11:34 PM

    So why is SSRI performing so badly oevr the last few years?

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:SSRI

    ReplyDelete
  19. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:37 PM

    Thanks malcolm. I had SIL for a while but it did nothing. We have been in a looooong slump for about 4 months. I'm thinking of getting back in again with SIL.

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  20. gipsytreeSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:39 PM

    @highrise408

    Do you happen to know if APMEX will have limit per customer on the lunars?

    ReplyDelete
  21. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:41 PM

    I guess because I can make up my mind with all the miners I just buy the indexs, SIL, GDXJ and a few specs, GLP,TINKA and pretnium!

    This time last year I had like 20 fucking minesr and was trading in and out, fuck, the broker fees alone, I think one week I had like 150 trades, lol.

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  22. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:42 PM

    Garry, SSO/SSRI is one of my holdings. Yeah, crappy mining stocks. Most of mine have gone nowhere since Jan 1. In fact none of them have, except SLW which is up 2%.

    This depression I feel makes me want to buy more because the up-swing is going to be tremendous.

    My two worst performers have been Great Panther and Wildcat. Better load up on those. They really sucked since I bought them - which means they most likely will rebound big time soon.


    Also take a look at RVS.V, it has really sucked since I bought it - which means it most likely will do very well in the next half year.

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  23. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:42 PM

    NP!

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  24. flauntSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:44 PM

    SGS - The only thing I see standing in the way is the dollar. We need to get this god damn greek default shit out of the way so the dollar can skyrocket and euro plummet, shortly before everyone realizes that getting the greeks out makes the euro more valuable and the whole thing can reverse. In the meantime it's going to be hard for the PMs to rally with the god damn DXY bounding upward a half a percent to one percent a day.

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  25. reefmanSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:44 PM

    Some stocks I follow:

    ATC.V
    AVL.TO
    AXR.TO
    COW.TO
    PME.TO
    RPM.V
    RVS.V
    SLW.TO
    SQI.V
    SSO.TO
    TLG.V
    SGR.V
    EAS.V
    OGC.TO
    CEF-A.TO
    SLW.TO
    CDE
    UXG
    CPG.TO
    TLG.V
    YRI.TO
    POT
    RBI.TO
    TRP.TO
    G.TO
    KTX.V
    MCP
    NTR.V
    GPR.TO
    RVS.V
    SLW.TO
    SSO.TO
    TK.V
    WS.TO

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  26. bflowers1September 13, 2011 at 11:45 PM

    malcolm

    I really haven't followed them,,, Thanks ! Outside of collecting mostly Silver Eagles, I collect kids, and grand kids ! So far nine of each ! lol

    ReplyDelete
  27. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:48 PM

    bflowers1,

    Sounds like a "real" life, congrats! :)

    We keep putting it off, kids that is, I like eagle too..

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  28. Funky TapeSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:50 PM

    It would be nice if we could see the prices on the vertical axis of the chart. I'm guessing the circle area is around $41?

    Good call SGS, I tend to agree...but why not drop it down to support in the $37's to really crush the longs again? If they're going to break us out of 4 months of hard work, why not let us stack at sweet discount. Guess I'm only dreaming again.....

    ReplyDelete
  29. Garry LindsaySeptember 13, 2011 at 11:51 PM

    Maloney has done alot of chart research that states bullion out performs miners in the long long run. But he also sells bullion and not stocks.

    But if you look at the prices of some of the silver miners in 2007/2008 when AG was $10-20, they were in a bubble then or they are super cheap now

    ReplyDelete
  30. malcolmSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:57 PM

    Chappy says,

    Go 70% miners 30% phyzz, last year I asked him he said 30% miners, 70% phyzz. What has changed, he thinks the miners are ready to blast. I much prefer to have 80% phyzz, at least that cant take the shit way with out a fight!

    Historically, in the 30's miners when up 500% because there was no phyzz, in the 70-80% something like 50x, and since 2001 GG was like 5 bucks today is 55 or whatever.

    Thats all off of memory, so dont quote me, please!

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  31. EriksvenSeptember 13, 2011 at 11:59 PM

    @Reefman... Sunward Resources (SWD) is another one that has been going strong lately. Good to buy dips, it will rather predictably go up. Few others are FR (duh), EXK (duh), EGO, and XG. Also, I agree with the AGQ = roulette analogy; I prefer HZU now, although in reality I guess they're quite similar.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Garry LindsaySeptember 14, 2011 at 12:26 AM

    What happened to HZU at the beginning of MAY?

    http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1315974359376&chddm=69989&cmpto=NYSE:AGQ;TSE:HZU&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:AGQ,TSE:HZU&ntsp=0

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  33. malcolmSeptember 14, 2011 at 12:30 AM

    @Eriksven,

    HZU, is new to me, is that double of SI? No options available on it:(

    ReplyDelete
  34. highrise408September 14, 2011 at 12:34 AM

    @GipsyTree - NO... APMEX said they are NOT limiting coins per customer. First come, first served.

    ReplyDelete
  35. malcolmSeptember 14, 2011 at 12:52 AM

    We have a sell off in progress

    ReplyDelete
  36. gipsytreeSeptember 14, 2011 at 12:59 AM

    @highrise408
    Thanks! got a pocket full of federal reserve note trash im trying to dump looking to buy 100 oz of the lunar sweetness. Ill be checking APMEX obsessively this week!!

    ReplyDelete
  37. reefmanSeptember 14, 2011 at 1:37 AM

    Jean Claude Trichet - don't know if you realize that his last name is French for "Cheater".... sutible for his character.

    ReplyDelete
  38. reefmanSeptember 14, 2011 at 1:43 AM

    Gary, it did exactly what it was supposed to.

    That would have been the best time to buy HZD. Check it out. Double your gains in less than two weeks:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HZD.TO+Interactive#chart2:symbol=hzd.to;range=20110426,20110913;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

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  39. reefmanSeptember 14, 2011 at 1:44 AM

    And by the way, James Dines called the top in April/May by twenty cents!

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  40. reefmanSeptember 14, 2011 at 1:49 AM

    James Dines:
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/7_James_Dines.html

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  41. Green TrivialSeptember 14, 2011 at 2:20 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  42. Green TrivialSeptember 14, 2011 at 2:22 AM

    @reefman " What are some ultra leveraged silver plays? I am stacked in AGQ, but wanted to know if there are others that I can play for a couple months to make the most out of this most obvious price surge "

    AGQ is 2x leveraged. Commerzbank has in Sweden a 4x leveraged ETF called BULL SILVER X4 C, https://www.avanza.se/aza/aktieroptioner/etf/etfguide.jsp?orderbookId=234154

    If you have international broker, they may be able to get it for you. You can also open up a brokerage account in Sweden. I was actually contemplating the latter.

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  43. John HSeptember 14, 2011 at 2:57 AM

    Just saw Canada beat Tonga in Rugby World Cup prelim's. Great game, great streaker too. I will celebrate with a 2 kilo (75oz) silver purchase in the morning. If anyone wants any Gold kiwis or Silver Ferns, let me know, hell of a premium on them though. www.nzmint.com to view.

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  44. felixSeptember 14, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    splain to me something please. Ricks Picks suggest a climb for Dec future Silver today. Wait for peak $41.500 and possible pull-back before jumping in.

    How does this information relate to current spot price of silver?

    ... what the hell am I doing up at 4am Pacific? ...

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  45. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2011 at 7:40 AM

    Gold mine to open in California 1,800 oz per month

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/09/13/california-gold-rush-set-for-revival/

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  46. silvergoldsilverSeptember 14, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    Fast mover: The volume will pick up after the FOMC meeting as we penetrate the upper (hopefully) band of the trend line. At this point the shorts will need to cover on the way to $50.

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  47. highrise408September 14, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Looks like another buying day for the phyzzz...I'm game... thanks Blythe!

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  48. highrise408September 14, 2011 at 9:44 AM

    What recession?

    "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The prices of U.S. goods at the wholesale level were unchanged in August as another decline in fuel costs offset an increase in food, the government reported Wednesday. The more closely followed core producer price index edged up 0.1% last month to mark the ninth straight increase, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted no increase in overall producer prices and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Energy prices fell for the third straight month, down 1.0%. Yet the cost of food jumped 1.1% in August. Intermediate prices fell 0.5% and crude goods rose 0.2%, the government said. Overall, producer prices are up 6.5% compared to one year ago, while the core rate has risen a slower 2.5% during that span."

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-prices-flat-in-august-2011-09-14

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  49. Adam ChalmersSeptember 14, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    @Garry Lindsay

    I wonder how many of those sheep own precious metals. I'm going to assume less than 1% of them, maybe even none of them!

    ReplyDelete

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