Monday, October 3, 2011

Margin Mondays!

I have been away all day. I was promised promises. None came through. My programmer is missing (in a hospital I hear?), and the new site lays in limbo. So I will do my commentary on here, extremely bummed until I get that phone call. So to those that were hoping for a site today, sorry. I will know more later tonight. I apologize that I have cried wolf on this like 20 times, but I am at the mercy of the computer literate right now that, so I have been told, one month longer on ANY website deadline should be added as a rule of thumb. So any day now I guess. Fuck sakes.

Again, if I do not comment throughout the day I keep very busy on the twitter account located at the left of this screen.

Where to start.

I would like to start with the physical demand of both the metals, which is NOWHERE even CLOSE to being represented in the paper metals. Below I have taken this clip from Jesse's Cafe Americain...:

"Tightening the Noose: France Bans Cash Sales of Gold/Silver over $600
By Mac Slavo
September 23rd, 2011

"...It looks like this trend of restricting the peoples’ ability to acquire assets of real monetary value is expanding. If a recent report from France is accurate, and based on the French governments official web site it looks like it is, then as of September 1, 2011, anyone attempting to sell or purchase ferrous or non-ferrous metals, which includes gold and silver, will be required to pay for their purchase via a credit card or bank wire transfer if it exceeds 450€ (~ $600 USD)..." click here to see entire article...

I now want to reiterate what I have been telling my loyalists for about 2 months now. Morgan Stanley will be the next to go. I will now call it Margin Stanley from here on out. If anyone listened to the Bears 7 video about Bank of America, you are now much richer from shorting it BAC.

So all you really have to do is look at that yellow trend line and until we see a trend reversal, its a sell. I am NOT a buyer of ANY bank stocks. NONE. Will they bounce hard and squeeze johnney late commer shorts, sure they will and it will be accompanied by rumors of Greek saviors or Fed printing that will be short lived unless QE4 arrives out of the blue.

Here let take a look now at something that we may want to start looking at. For example, the Canadian banks. Let take TD's weekly chart (see below):

We never did re test those 2009 lows did we? Well, you guessed it, if you think we are goign to have another serious credit crunch, we will test those lows. Place your bets accordingly, we did not have the Ben Bernanke PUT back then.

As of right now, in which I wish I had more time to implement these trades into the VIP section of the new site (which will not be functional yet), I own the $70 PUT on XOM. I have had this since Thursday. Most would have sold the candle when it pierced the $74 and through the MA(aka the fuckjob candle), but I held as the market was rolling over and I saw the bots triggered short stop losses as per usual on the MA play. Keep trading simple guys look at this chart. Channel trading is very confusing to most people as they try to buy and short the breaks instead of the opposite. Its actually a free money gift given to you by the algos.

Clearly you see the trend right? The top end is easy to exit and re short as the bottom on this one. Most of the 'wicks' through the trendline and the FJC (Fuck job candles). You need to understand the fuckjob candle before daytrading. It may the most valuable tool you can learn.

This is the stuff I want to develop in the VIP section of the trading section, as I hope the beginners can see value to it.

I have not yet received that phone call for the new site, so I'm off to smash some skulls and figure out WTF is going on.

Trade safely, and always read my disclosure when trading. I am a clown. Do not read these charts and expect to make money from clowns.


  1. Meh... Morgan is *way* too connected to fail, but may go down a bit from here.

  2. Just like a politician. Constantly making promises and never delivering. Excuses excuses! Why don't you stop giving countdowns and just announce when the site is open instead of wasting more of our precious time?! ;)
    BTW...thanks for all your hard work!!

  3. Ijustbentover: Agree 100%. You have no idea how bad I feel. This never happens to me. Ever.

  4. Waiting for this site to come online is not near as bad as waiting in line at the US post office. I swear to fucking god they crawl to desk half asleep and the other half is in a daze dreaming about their massive pension.

  5. I've been an engineer for a long time.

    I almost always miss my schedule. Things always seem like their almost done.

    Don't sweat it.

    The complainers ain't going anywhere.

  6. @sgs I been jibing you here and there about your "delivery date" for a while. All in good fun. Those of us in the SW world understand. It'll be done when it gets done. So chill out and let it happen. We're not going anywhere.

  7. The way Wall St suicide bomber banks make sure they will be rescued is carrying a derivative book big enough to cause not just an explosion but a supernova should they crash, and Morgan Stanley certain has one with 50T God knows what junk (probably loads of IRS) on their book. That's like a suicide bomber with 50 million-ton TNT on its belt.

    MS will be rescued (along with BAC and Citi), just a matter of in what form (merge, bailout, TARP2 or whatnot).

  8. oh, and here's another little tidbit. It'll never be "done". Ever.

  9. BTW if you wanna check the size of Wall St bank derivative books then go to this URL (b4 it becomes too embarrassing to publish).

  10. SGS... man your tinka trade is looking real nice! in fact all your jr recommendations are looking real nice (fire river, Hinterland, and Wildcat!)

    your best call yet though is silver to $75 an oz by news years day! let me ask you a question... if silver is manipulated then why is it selling at $1.50 over spot @ Gainsville or Apmex? If it was truly manipulated, wouldn't we see spot prices well over $6, $7 dollars?

  11. 2Pac: I guess you missed the AMZN PUT at $250 that has netted me 10x what I'll make in TK. The entire market sold off-this includes ALL juniors. Take profits when you can. Is it New years day yet? What does manipulation have anything to do with Apmex pricing?

    P.S. Long TInka at .15, still up over 110% ;) loser.

  12. I enjoy following your news SGS, and Don't sweat the small Stuff! We know you have good intentions.. I know you sit a computer watching the market like a Hawk! But my job doesn't allow me to do that, So I just stack! You called BOA and a whole host of shit! Half the time I don't know what you Traders are talking But I'm slowly learning.. It takes awhile to pick up your Jargon.. I have to admit, I won't miss trolls..

  13. Y'all notice S&P500 closed at new lows for the year.
    Even lower than that intra-day spike down on Aug 9.
    Closed right on the low of the day.

  14. Don't sweat the hater pigs, SGS. There are plenty of us here, I think, that truly enjoy and benefit from your analysis (cryptic though it can be at times).

    Good on ya for spreading the word.

  15. Rule for all software engineering projects:

    The first 90% of the project takes the first 90% of the time.

    That last 10% of the project takes the next 90% of the time.

  16. Hey I sent you some money, WTF!? But but, I want it now!.....
    It will happen we have your back. Looking forward to it! Some techies need time. Good things come to those who wait....cliche cliche. Beer up and chill, Hang in there.
    aka mendosaman.

  17. looking forward to the new site. have patience with the web guy. if you're just 1 month behind there's still 5 to go. hehe.