Lets first post up the COT report, I have copied it straight over from Harveys Blog (click here for more):
There are a few things that are not lining up for me. You know me, I could sit here and cheerlead this to death right now, but thats not my place. Do I think silver will get to $500? Yes. By next week? No. So dont shoot the blog that calls it the way we see it when we talk a negative piece.
Whats strikingly weird is Fridays PM trades. Gold was okay late into the bell, but silver was not. The weird part is that the big boys most certainly get the COT report before its printed. Dont think for one second they dont. This is the scary part. Such a 'bullish' COT report for both metals, some would argue the best COT report to memory. So why the weak Friday close? Equities bring the PM's down with them late in the day? If you go back and do some research, after such bullish COT reports we usually catch a major bid. This is my disconnect.
My second disconnect was the amount of contracts covered by the Morgue et al. And in order for this amount to be covered, you need and equal amount to be sold (captain obvious).
This takes me back to 2008. On boring days on the desk, we would pick on an illiquid stock, a few people would short it while we bought it, then we would switch rolls. Washing was common, the regulators didnt give a shit because we gave the ECN's so many liquidity credits and no one was getting hurt. When the warnings would come in, no one cared...seriously they had bigger problems as these were the days leading up to the 2008 clusterfuck.
Que todays COT report. I have a suspicion that, although it looks like the Morgue et al. is covering that massive pile of shorts, its their own selling they are covering. Most of the paper selling happened in illiquid markets. Not sure if this many contracts could be filled they way they were.
Mark my word: if Gold and silver correct down from here, the COT report from here on out is null and void.
If we go up here and never look back, you can call this a call a complete miss.
Somethings not right with this duck.
Good call SGS, Friday ended very weak, and I as well think silver, maybe not gold, will be taking another dive off the big boy board.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing that the COT data is good.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers are basically the best since the Fall 2008 silver crash below $10. Same basic scenario: speculators sold in "deflation" panic while the commercials cleaned up a good part of their shorts.
If the COT gets much better, we'll have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a more bullish COT report. (Actually, the commercial-long to OI ratio has not been this good since before 2000!)
Price could drop more or take several months to start back up. But prices cannot drop too much more. Even Tulving is sold out of junk silver and 100 oz JM bars. They have monster boxes of Maples for spot +$1.99, but I don't think that will last long if we drop to $25.
In 2008, silver hung out around $10 for two months.
I guess that we could very well hang out between $24 and $30 for two months or so. Or maybe we don't dip below $29. Or maybe we move up soon.
Bottom line is that we are AT or NEAR a fantastic long term buy point -- comparable to the $9 opportunity in 2008.
How much use is the report? It's from 9-20 to 9-27 or three days old. I have to admit I have no fkn clue whats going on or what tomorrow will bring anymore. I just have that feeling were about to get hit and hard. War, terror, bk I don't know but I don't like it one bit. Stack and bullets is my plan.
ReplyDeleteAnimal mothers charge
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txGegkyZ5cs
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ReplyDeleteI hope the S/G ratio does go back up. That is my only trade, swap one specie for another when the timing gets right. I agree, I have a very uneasy feeling and suspect will have issues keeping the groceries down over the next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePlunder the Rothschilds
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneyteachers.org/Plunder+the+Rothschilds.htm
hi is there anyone here who knows how to calculate the FMV of silver. I knw the generic formula from the net but where does one get the values to feed into it .thanks
ReplyDeleteSGS. I've asked this once before but I'll try again.
ReplyDeleteCan the Morgue keep the market where it wants for months on end by just playing with itself?
Dimon and Blythe playing with themselves .... endlessly.
If they are covering what they are selling, why OI are decresing then?
ReplyDeleteSeems the 30$/oz was broken a few times now. We ended below 30 threshold on Friday.
ReplyDeleteI`ll be short silver to around 20$ level. At that level I`ll be looking to buy. It might fall to 17$ or so but it should be good entry point nonetheless.
The Q3 dismal reports should put big pressure on market and Bernanke to print more by that time. When that happens, silver should spring back up. It might take 2-3 months if not more for this scenario to unfold.
Was reading some article the other day. Someone made the claim that silver is around 75% industrial and 25% storage(safe haven) while gold is 50% industrial and 50% storage(safe haven). Do you think these are the real numbers?
reminds me of a funny story
ReplyDeleteguy goes down a hall in a hotel, another guy has water glass against wall outside bridal suite
he motions first guy over, says "Here, listen." handing glass to first guy who listens with ear against glass against wall
"I don't hear nuthin."
"I know!". says the second guy, "it's been that way all day!"
My 2 cents:
ReplyDeleteFrom SGS: "I have a suspicion that, although it looks like the Morgue et al. is covering that massive pile of shorts, its their own selling they are covering."
Yes, they can drive the price down if the sell and buy from their own account. But: The did cover net, so it means they bought back more than they sold this week. This does not mean JPM cannot drive the price more down with selling and buying back and forth from their own accounts. I guess the key is the 18th of October. JPM wants to cover as much as they can on low prices, until the CFTC may stop them to rig the prices. They know this, so they cover now, before they are not allowed to supress the prices anymore.
Price actions seems clearly negative at this point. But this is a "feeling", as E.d.Groot writes (see link below under 2.)
We have currently some extremes we rarely had before, and those happened around important bottoms in the past:
1. MacD on the daily: Lowest readings ever, far away from the second lowest - on my chart at least
http://t.co/EWWaTBA
2. Extremes in the Silver Diffusion Index from Eric De Groot
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-setup-classic-rope-dope.html
3. And the extreme COT report
http://t.co/5NMVWj9
Yes, it could go down more from here, but there is no way I would short this market. This is just way to dangerous with some indicators on extremes. If this is really the end of the manipulation by JPM, I would not be surprised to see 100 by the end of this year. Btw. I expect 26 to hold.
You couldn't be more wrong if you tried:
ReplyDelete100 by the end of this year.
Led, Are you ready for some football? I say Bill B goes heavily to the running game today to expose Raiders shitty linebackers. Tou have a tough one there in the Texans. Good luck! I hope Ben watched his teenie porn last night so he can keep his mind on the game.
ReplyDeleteSimilar senitment on Friday I had:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1529078&postcount=4261
@Tom H: actually, no. Most likely, be putting a hash mark on the "L" side
ReplyDeleteAnyone a global warming idiot? IT SNOWED here this morning. Let me repeat IT SNOWED HERE THIS MORNING! Go suck Al Gore's.....whatever.
ReplyDeleteBTW, any global warming ass, thank you for the shitty lightbulbs. You fuck.
ReplyDeleteLed, wouldn't it be, "Thanks for the shitty lightbulbs that are made in China and put all of the American Light Bulb manufacturers out of business because our retarded environmental laws don't allow us to make the light bulbs we have to use."
ReplyDeleteHere's a totally unrelated post and video from a couple weeks ago .. thought it was a great video to share tho...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lms_A7xH8I&feature=player_embedded
@Tom H: yes, but when I am so fucking pissed, I can only string so many sentences together
ReplyDelete1980 - (at its height) one ounce of silver could buy approx. 42 gallons of gas.
ReplyDelete2011- once ounce of silver buys approx 8 gallons of gas (either gas price would have to decrease to .72 cents a gallon or silver would have to rise to approx. $160 an ounce to match the state of affairs in 1980). I doubt silver's rise has even approached exhaustion.
Let us watch this again, and enjoy some sports today. Noone can be metals 24/7:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FywT-txGuss
Led, And the Steelers draft: Pittsburgh Steelers: Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama
ReplyDeletehttp://bleacherreport.com/articles/865358-2012-nfl-mock-draft-predictions-for-all-32-1st-round-picks#/articles/865358-2012-nfl-mock-draft-predictions-for-all-32-1st-round-picks/page/27
"If they are covering what they are selling, why OI are decresing then?"
ReplyDeleteLike I said, lets see what happens in the next two weeks on the most bullish COT report. I hope I am wrong, b/c if I'm right, houston we have a problem.
What my Gut tells me is were getting ready to see where your Bears pointed out the Separation between the physical market and the "Paper market" ! The lower they drive it, the faster it will fly off the shelves, and a lot of places seem to be running quite low already.. I don't see this as 2008.. There are a lot more buyers today, than back then.. At a certain point these Bullion Banks will have to start raising their premiums as the paper goes lower.. I was a buyer this weekend, and I will be a buyer next.. Where else am I going to stack my FIAT!
ReplyDeleteI just can't see much silver left to buy up in the low twenties.. I believe those that wait will be buying on back order.. When the Shit hits the fan, I wouldn't be sleeping well, wondering if my silver was ever going to show up ! Who knows what countries will have Nationalized their mines.. Rules can Change ! I'm not willing to take that chance!
The lady supplies me with Seahawks tickets today!
ReplyDeleteRare Earth Element Formation In Afghanistan Could "Transform" Economy
ReplyDeletePosted by Claire Shefchik on October 1, 2011 2:26 PM
Gold jewelry in Afghan shop in Herat A gold maker holds a piece of gold at a jewelry shop on February 27, 2010 in Herat... Read More
A rare earth element deposit in southern Afghanistan may provide tremendous economic benefits for the country, the U.S Geological Survey announced Friday after a study.
USGS Director Marcia McNutt told UPI that the agency's work with the U.S. Defense Department has yielded "volumes of information" and may allay doubts about investing in the region. In 2010, department officials concluded the formations could have $1 trillion in precious metals.
The 24 mineral deposits contain gold, copper, iron ore and rare earth elements such as lanthanum, scandium and yttrium, which can be used in high-strength magnets and batteries. In 2007, a survey estimated that there could be 1.5 million metric tons of rare earths in the region.
"The mineral resources in Afghanistan have the potential to completely transform the nation's economy," said Regina Dubey, acting director of Defense Department's task force for business and stability operations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-29/afghanistan-has-world-class-mineral-resources-u-s-.html
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan’s ambassador to the U.S., Eklil Hakimi, said today the new survey data may help stimulate foreign investment and improve the country’s security.
Question:
Why the fuck would anyone in their right mind invest in a country that is occupied by a morally corrupt and bankrupt foreign invader with a rapidly failing bullshit paper ponzi scam for a "money" system?
"100 by the end of this year"
ReplyDeleteLed - is this based on a "feeling" or is there a pattern in the charts telling you this? If so, could you expand a little please?
I think most of you will be in great shock this month. The power of these criminal banks can not be underestimated. When Greece falls this month and the Dow tanks at least 1500 pts. the banks are going in for the last great take down of the pms. This must happen because they are still short obscene amounts of silver! At min. expect silver in the low 20s but look out for $10 to $15 po silver. It will be at these levels for a very brief time. This action must happen before the big CFTC mtg. I am a prof. silver trader and am shorting silver aggresively. Also am shorting the S&P...
ReplyDeleteA little humor for a sunday afternoon.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHjjUZugFCE
Robert: Do you think there will be any physical left at $10? I dont.
ReplyDeleteRobert.... I believe we can see that with the "paper silver" ! But I believe we will see the Premiums rise on the Physical.. And most buying Silver as an investment these days, know that were up against criminals... I'd love to buy some silver at ten bucks and ounce! And I have a couple of Credit cards I'd load up and use, to let these Criminals buy it for me! My question is where are they going to come up the the Physical to make these coins at those prices.. They can't Print it! I'm looking for answers here, I truly am.. But my logic tells me The physical will be Wiped out, and every one on the COMEX would be standing for Delivery..
ReplyDeleteSGS, there probably won't be but that is irrelevant (think Bix Weir). In fact, I expect buyers of size to step in at these insanely low levels to clean everything out. Be certain that they are on standby ready to pull the trigger...
ReplyDeleteDo the math on what it would take to reach $100 by 12/30/11. I'm not even going to waste my time. Close to +$1.50 every single day is my guess. That is starting with TONIGHT.
ReplyDeleteAnthemius said...
"100 by the end of this year"
Led - is this based on a "feeling" or is there a pattern in the charts telling you this? If so, could you expand a little please?
October 2, 2011 11:54 AM
Based on experience. We'll get there, just the year won't be this one.
Sorry Led, I thought from your post that you were saying that would happen ($100 by years end), which is why I asked. That makes more sense.
ReplyDeleteIn Ted Butler's weekly analysis (I think it's OK to publish a few #s from his report) he figured Morgue covered 6400 contracts but still holds 16000 net shorts.
ReplyDeleteIf I were the Morgue and went through hell to cover these shorts then I might as well just drive it down a little harder to cover more before the inevitable global QE comes up next. So I don't expect an immediate bull run back up. It's probably gonna be ranging around throughout October.
ot: those light bulbs are filled with mercury, no? break one and you have a local environmental hazard. i stocked up and continue to do so on the good ole incandescent bulbs. i love how the PEE-ons(know why we are considered peons?- cuz we contantly get urinated on)have to conserve while the corpos waste.
ReplyDeletethe rare earth news is older news, by about 5-6 months already, maybe. the rare earths in afghanistan is supposedly years from extraction, and refining. China has dibs on something like 95% of the rest of the worlds Rare Earths which im sure most of you know, DOESNT include gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.
Agree with most here, no phyzz available in mid to low 20s and lower.
according to the webbots reports we are supposed to see 5, and then 20 dollar movements..well, we shall see.
SGS..Ding!! its almost 3:00 EST- Do you know where your NEW forum is? just asking..
ReplyDeleteAlso, please drink some decaf before responding :)
recapture: Working hard here around the clock to launch this by tonight, fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteJPMorgan Chase recently donated an unprecedented $4.6 million to the New York City Police Foundation.
ReplyDeleteI really don't believe it will take to long to turn Ugly ! I had my own little protest this weekend.. Hit the bastards where it hurts, Buy Silver !
http://www.ericallenbell.org/group/occupy-wall-street/forum/topics/j-p-morgan-chase-donates-4-6-million-to-nypd