Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Morning Update

Okay I have a busy day ahead of me so lets keep it in bullet form again:

1. Every time I am away from my desk there is a big move, so expect something today.

2. I will be tweeting, you can follow on the left hand side

3. The new site is 99% ready. We had issues tieing in the Open ID, so we are leaving that out for the launch. SO you will just have to register as a user for now, and wait a week for the open ID to kick in.

4. Again, if you think this is the bottom, or just want to park some fiat and buy bullion and forget about it, you can use my discount: sgb-sgs www.silvergoldbull.com
If you are yankee, change the currency Flag at the top to USA baby!

5. From here on out we will be faced with an uphill paper price battle of volatility. I put my mind at ease every week and allocate more and more of my portfolio % in bullion.

Be back soon.

95 comments:

  1. This is big news for the USA. The mainstream media won't cover this:
    Ron Paul and Jesse Ventura

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  2. Wow, never saw the silver trend meter on total "E" before. Wonder how that reading is generated.

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  3. There is no need to click his link because there is no news to cover. I didn't link over to his site. I got the info right from the source. Jesse was on the Alex Jones show kicking around "what-if" ideas. Ron never asked him to run and Jesse didn't say he would run until he talks to his wife.

    When is the new site going online? This guy blows up and attacks people than wants the same people to read his crap.

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  4. For what it is worth, I think we have a retest of 1584/28 coming in the paper prices. A couple of "risk off" days should do the trick since the trend is already favoring downside for now...

    Then I think gold/silver may catch the safe-haven bid as stock market tanks. Just some thoughts.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/61574#comment-61574

    And as for Ron Paul:
    He is a noble man and a great vehicle for truth (I used to be blindly optimistic that he could fix things for us), but no man bound by the title of politician can fix the situation by himself, as we have a systemic problem...one in which will not go away without a greater understanding from many more people.

    It is better to adhere to his ideologies of freedom and liberty than to adhere to him as a politician that can enact change in meaningful ways. Anything he can accomplish is a bonus.

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  5. forget "openid" sgs... just have users register on your site alone.

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  6. SGS-

    I have a QUESTION re: your stateement... "From here on out we will be faced with an uphill paper price battle of volatility"

    If CRIMEX takes paper silver to the teens what will this mean for those of us holding physical??

    This is the 'same' group that once made it illegal to buy silver and all you could do is liquidate positions. They are certainly mobsters.

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  7. Alright so I have a confession to mae, and SGS, please don't kick me out, but I went to Weather Units blog last night because I happen to like Jesse Ventura and Conspiracy theory. And last night, , when Weather Unit also posted the same link, I decided I wanted to see what kind of people were commenting on his blog. Well let me tell you what kind: Fucking None!

    So, I come here this morning and see that he has spammed again, so I decide to see if he has any comments yet. As of 11:33 AM EST, still None.

    You would think his marketing method of annoying the living shit out of people at other blogs that are actually good, hoping they will come to his shitty blog and post comments would have hit him like a brick that it is not fucking working.

    Figures don't lie and liars don't figure. There are exactly zero comments at your stupid fucking blog. Is that telling you anything Weather Unit? Anything at all? Anyone? Buehler?

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  8. @ Sam Johnson

    If paper silver goes to the teens, what will it mean for those holding physical?

    That if you are stupid enough to sell at those prices, you didn't understand why you bought it in the first place.

    And if you are looking to buy it at these prices (good luck), it won't be around.

    So many people focused on comex paper is pretty funny. The fear wreaks on the gold/silver community boards.... a buy signal on the next dip.

    Buy fear, sell greed.... enough said.
    -
    P.S. Open ID sucks ass.... Google gets to follow every one of these comments, not that it really matters, but the principle should stand ;)

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  9. Heads Up

    The Royal Canadian Mint just issued another $20 commemorative pure silver coin for $20. The last one sold out in less than a month. Get em while you can.

    http://www.mint.ca/store/buy/silver_coins-cat120006

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  10. the coin is .796 an ounce and costs $12 shipping, so its about spot, I bought 3 (the limit per house) ... thanks for heads up, Don.

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  11. Fuck me running-2012 1oz. AG Dragon proof is $800!!!

    http://www.apmex.com/Product/64207/2012_Year_of_the_Dragon___1_oz_Proof_Silver_Coin_Series_2.aspx

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  12. there are 3 types of shipping offered, I think you paid for the most expensive one. I chose the less expensive at a little over $2. Here's a trick if you want more than 3 coins, just order 3 more but use a different email address. Do this as many times as you want.

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  13. $800 Dragon Coin

    You can still buy these on Ebay for around $350. I prefer the Canadian 1 oz Dragon Coin, same low mintage, less expensive. I noticed that the new Canadian $20 coin is being offered outside of Canada. Should be sold out in a week. The first coin was only available in Canada.

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  14. honestly, just look at gold and silver..some serious shit is about to happen to the markets..gold and silver get beat down before the shit hits the fan and will get beat down even more when the shit hits the fan..make sure you have some funds to buy on the cheap in the coming month!!

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  15. Now that the gap has closed, if you want to look for possible target points, draw the traj. lines I posted yesterday.

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  16. What is the point of buying a 7 gram silver coin for $20? + shipping? there is 28 grams in an ounce, so to get an ounce I'm paying $80? At the end of the day silver is silver and gold is gold, unless I'm missing something? Someone please advise, as it's a genuine question.

    Thanks
    FT

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  17. That coin is 7.96 grams not .796 ounces... big difference

    Spot $30.15

    7.96 grams= $7.71 silver

    .796 troy ounce= $23.99 silver

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  18. AGQ about to go into double figures!
    I would say a screaming CALL/BUY, but logic has become a useless commodity, pardon the pun!

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  19. Dollar filling gap on rise. Dollar strength=deflation signature.
    ie 2008.
    Another wave down for metals, and then they should separate from the other markets which will continue lower. More people will realize where the real problem lies.

    Sgs,
    Was that tweet another margin increase?

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  20. troy oz is 10% more than Gonja oz. 31.1 gmail in a troy oz

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  21. Not trying to stir the controversial pot ... or .. maybe I am.... but, it just occured to me. What if Goldman Sucks threw that $2500 gold figure out there to lure more from the sidelines before this flush? ...

    ... certainly, if they're sticking to their prediction, then silver is going be on fire here shortly...

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  22. Ledbedder said...
    When I draw traj. lines, I always start with the widest angles (at the base). I use them like a check off list. How do I pick the points? Just experience. I have no hard and fast rules. So, here are 4 I already have on my chart.

    (1) connected low on 7/1 to low on 9/26
    (2) " 7/12 "
    (3) " 8/9 "
    (4) " 8/25 "

    Sorry, can't give you price levels due to the fact it depends on how quickly it goes down.
    September 27, 2011 8:40 AM

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  23. oh and Weather Unit was misspelled ...it should read Weather Eunuch :)

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  24. Good Read
    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/anatomy-of-silver-manipulation-how-low-can-it-go/

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  25. My traj. lines are currently saying we will see below $25. SIZ11 currently at $29.98

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  26. Great charts

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/66293935/Market-Commentary-25SEP11

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  27. @Mike S: Are you still in contact with your grain source? If so, what is he saying? Thanks.

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  28. @Malcolm: Did you read his comments on the silver chart (last chart)? Calling for mid 20's. Just look at that post from 4:13 PM! ;) How was your birthday?

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  29. Yes!

    Taking a position in ZSL!

    Its was excellent, the old lady took me out to dinner, had fillet mignon with crawfish sauce, fried pork cheeks bruschetta, crab salad and Johnny Walker Black, some live gypsy banjo music and an hour romp :)

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  30. "One complication of waiting for lower SILVER PRICES is what happened in 2008. While the paper price dropped to 880c, the price for physicals never dropped below 1200c. Shortages emerged, and people just asked higher and higher premiums for whatever silver they had."

    - Franklin Sanders

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2011/09/from-whatever-low-silver-and-gold.html

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  31. "Here we go again." -Brown Bear

    Here come the deflationists. The money supply is going vertical and this guy is calling for deflation. They are oiling the printers as we speak.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/prominent-deflationist-schilling-sees-deflation-china-hard-landing-and-800-sp

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=AMBNS

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  32. While I am very over-weight in gold, silver and PM stocks, there is a MUCH better investment... Canadian farmland, particularly saskatchewan. This is a special situation which will far outshine the metals.

    People will be shocked at what the price of Pork and Beef will be next year and after. Two billion more middle class Asian consumers coming up who are moving from grain/veggie diets to meat diets.

    Pork and Beef will keep rising even in terms of gold & silver.

    And when the Cdn government opens Cdn farmland to Chinese investment, it will soar many times more than gold or silver. The CIC already recently set up an office in Toronto, ready to go as soon the Conservative majority gov't changes the rules (then it will be too late to buy-in).

    Of course, no guarantees. Things could change, haha

    So bottom line... diversify your savings into a variety of tangible real assets. Like Jimmy Rogers. Do not put all your eggs into any one basket no matter how sure.

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  33. @mossmoon,

    I saw that and thought the same thing. Unfortunately, we will exist with the worst of both worlds, an inflationary depression. Were real assets (Pm's, food, productive land, ect..) will be valued exponentially, due to the increased money supply. But other unnecessary goods and services due to the lack of income and interest will depreciate!

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  34. @J,

    That's was, is my plan. 4 or 5 acres heirloom organic produce and herb and medicines!

    I'm here in the PNW, great area to farm, year round!

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  35. Those of you still counting on QE3 *soon* could continue to be disappointed.

    Even market "bears" David Rosenberg and metals bull Eric Sprott have been saying Fed QE inevitable eventually but NO fed QE until at least after June when OT ends. Google it, for example...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rosenberg-presents-three-ways-bernanke-disappointed-market-and-why-it-dumping

    Be patient! No get-rich-quick.

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  36. @malcolm Great business if you can pull it off. Everything else here pales in comparison.

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  37. SILVER EAGLE SALES BLOWS THRU 400,000 MORE IN LESS THAN 24 hours

    Yesterday I stated that the US MINT had increased its silver eagle sales from FRI-TUES a million to 3.3 million.

    Today they just updated it again at 3.75 million or an addition of 400,000 in less than 24 hours. Silver is still running off the shelves.

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  38. OT, will be ineffective and in any event who will buy treasuries?

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  39. OT is worse than ineffective for the banks, since it flattens the yield curve they need to make money.

    As for treasuries, obviously nobody here is a potential buyer (I think it is a bubble) but a LOT of scared money flows there. Look at the flows and the treasury yield. The US needs this to continue to fund their annual budget deficit. This is the current phase of the crisis. Gary Shilling's latest book was correct, at least for now (I was wrong to ridicule him earlier this year). In time it shall pass, but for now it is what it is. I trade with it and I have been doing well this month shorting the markets. Still not too late as there is another leg to drop still, I think.

    I am sure you already know this, but maybe it will give pause to someone else.

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  40. ^
    Copper broke below key tech support today.

    That means more ugly numbers coming to the S&P for sure and probably silver too. Treasuries will probably keep their bid meanwhile, lol (but sometime eventually treasuries will be a great short)

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  41. Im short the S&P till around 1000, it may go lower but I think the PPT comes in around then, not with standing the collapse of the Euro.

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  42. @ Malcom...

    Are you serious? Those charts I was impressed with to a certain degree until I read this commment alongside his gold analysis....

    "Everyone holding gold as a safehaven got a doused with a bucket of icewater. It's NOT a safehaven of any kind and never has been. "Safehavens" don't experience these kinds of moves."

    **Clonk**
    Sorry I just hit myself in the head.

    For crying out loud....

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  43. ^
    I should add, for anyone worried about any continuing collapse in comex paper silver...

    "One complication of waiting for lower SILVER PRICES is what happened in 2008. While the paper price dropped to 880c, the price for physicals never dropped below 1200c. Shortages emerged, and people just asked higher and higher premiums for whatever silver they had."

    - Franklin Sanders

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2011/09/from-whatever-low-silver-and-gold.html

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  44. ScottJ said,

    I read that! I agree with the charts just not some of the comments. You will find that sentiment in a lot, I mean a lot of traders and TA. I guess when the dollar is worth a nickle and the Down is at 5k and the bond market blows up, they will learn then!

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  45. S&P tech levels to watch on the downside from here:

    1150, 1133, 1119, **1101**, **1020**, 950

    Upside watch for 1202-1226

    I doubt the Fed will print in response to falling stock markets again, unless maybe S&P crashed to 666 again... Thing is, QE proved to benefit only a minority of wealthier people while hurting the middle and lower classes with severe food and fuel inflation. The FOMC has many faults but it is not as clueless and reckless as some here portray.

    Fed will print when forced to monetize debt and/or keep rates down... but that wont happen as long as scared money flows into perceived "safety" of US from EU etc.

    Just my opinion, i could be wrong...

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  46. @Malcom
    Great Article. Unbelievable amount of corruption going on! Empire must be on it's last legs. About the PNW i hear you on that. Don't know if you've seen a documentary called "ingredient's" (available on NFLX) it's about organic farming and the need for people that get off the processed food train. Many of the farmers that highlight are from the PNW! People forget about the importance of developing a relationship with the person(s) who grow your food. But then again we live in zombieland. ANyways I go to the PNW a couple times a year. I live in socal and i really want to get the hell out of here! Plus rain is a good thing.!

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  47. @ScottJ ... I think he is referring to the volatility. In that context, it is not an invalid statement and does not negate his other good work.

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  48. @mossmoon M2 has soared but the missing ingredient for hyperinflation is money velocity. Fed wants more money velocity, but perhaps should be careful what it wishes for.

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  49. gipsytree,

    The rain washes away your sins, lol! Nocal is cool though!

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  50. @J: did you notice the possible H&S top in USZ11?

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  51. "Germany slams 'stupid' U.S. plans to boost EU rescue fund"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8793010/Germany-slams-stupid-US-plans-to-boost-EU-rescue-fund.html

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  52. Just throwing out another thought.. We Lease some land in a Flood plain area, from the county.. We have fifteen acres with a pond and river flows on the edge of it as well.. We can do about anything on except built a permanent structures. Hunt, fish, plant.. And it cost a little less than two hundred a year for the lease, and about seventy dollars for insurance.. People pay us a pretty handsome amount, just to go hunt it..

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  53. http://www.marketskeptics.com/2011/06/the-esf-and-its-history.html

    *****What I have been afraid to blog about: THE ESF AND ITS HISTORY (Part 1-5)*****

    Must see

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  54. Brother John Silver Update: Occupy Silver

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGNhFekSKBc

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  55. @Malcolm: just watched part 1, and I am already PISSED! Moving on to part 2.

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  56. LOL!! Don't anyone get pissed, I'm just having a little fun. This is what "Ledbedder" hears after telling about gaps being filled and the traj. lines (4 of them BTW) pointing to a silver move to the mid 20's:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQFEY9RIRJA&feature=related

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  57. I should have added: with a few notable exceptions :)

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  58. If you want to trade the market, I believe silver tomorrow morning is going to be a buy at 27.50 It can trade up to the top of a range at 35, but at 35 it is a sell, cause we are going lower based on the technicals. So I'm saving my cash during the next few weeks to buy phyzz when we break lower.

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  59. Holy hell Commodityworldnews, that is a HUGE range. Can you back it up with something more?

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  60. Night folks, I hope you watch the video I posted at 7:29. Made me :) posting it

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  61. just history. look at the chart every time it has had a 26% drop in the past ten years, a range develops, it tests the lows, but stays rangebound for a few weeks, then the drop resumes to complete itself. It has been uncanny how comparable all the silver cycles have been the past ten years, but at a higher and higher price EACH time. The dollar also hasn't gained enough relative to silver's drop today to be a significant. deflation has to be the top driver for pm's and the dollar hasn't had a crazy day like when it catalyzed the last drop. Although if we close lower than the recent low of 26 in london tomorrow, then we can go lower sooner.

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  63. @Commodityworldnews: my post above (4:13 PM) is starting at around $25, and POSSIBLY as low as $22 +/-. Time will tell, and I don't think it will take long, do you?

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  64. Has anyone noticed the pathetic selection at gainesville coin on generic silver bullion? Either they are holding back their stock or they are truly running low, I wish I knew for sure. We can wait for silver to back to the $25ish range but will there be any supply left? Then again I've heard numerous time around here that if silver ever fell to $30 the supply of silver would be gone by morning.

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  65. i think we are in for a huge drop to resistance at 21, holding there for a month or two, and then breaking below. This will coincide with a total breakdown of international banks and settlements. A seizure of money market funds and debt payments by governments. crazy shit like that. and silver will repeat 2008's performance, but 9 won't be the magic number, it will be 14-18. And anyone who is shorting any asset class now, or at least has a lot of cash now, will get one more once in a lifetime opportunity to buy physical. the drop has to coincide with complete restrictions by huge banks on all trading, and a huge rise in the dollar index, and total blind fear.

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  66. people have to realize, the US government will do everything in its power to destroy other country's currencies before they let ours die. if we sanction and threaten war against other weaker dependent countries unless they print cash and price control and wage freeze, then our dollar seems like the safe haven and those economies go back to cash USD markets for a time. we have done this forever to other countries to solve our problems and create demand for USD. Serbia, Argentina (many times, always US influenced) Japan.... so once we start doing that as the deflation trade ends with silver at 14-18$ , silver will start its climb back, and top out at 100 instead of 50. This will all happen in the next 24 months, so don't get fleeced by the manipulated market and sell your silver.

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  67. Listen to Bob Chapman tell people that there is a $9.00 premium on American Silver Eagles. The News UNIT

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  68. i got this information from the book Gold: the once and future money and from chartologists on silver I found online. Justin had a great post showing the last pattern of silver's cycle on monday. You can find in the ten year LOG chart for silver we have only this sunday night fallen back INTO the upward trendline beginning in february 2003

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  69. I found a picture of SGS on the web:
    The News UNIT

    Can someone tell me who's selling ASE's for $9.00 over spot?

    I can't stop laughing at all of this!!!! HA HA HA....HO HO HO....

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  72. @J: Gotta love dis/misinformation.

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  75. @Led - With the recent events worldwide, I cannot disconnect. I thrive on information. Yea, ok, you might say...ohhh this dude was frontin, he aint leaving blah blah blah, but its my choice, and if I stay, I stay. You obviously know now, that I vent sometimes on here, and thanks to you and many others, you have all kept me calm and cool. The reason for that? Because you bring forth intelligence to the discussion table. I might not be posting as often as usual, but I'll be watching, waiting, and willing to strike when needed. Me and you almost wernt cool a while back. You posted a comment to PaidInGold to remove WU information, and I had written a comment similar to what I just wrote to WU... but I erased it immediately because I knew you were just doin the right thing and stepping in by sayin that. Im taking your last comment with a bit of patronization based on the way it was written, but in the longrun, you aint shit to me one way or another. So if you wanna "quote" me and call me out on shit I said, fine, I could do the same with your silver diagnostics but I would rather, like everything else in this world, take it with a grain of salt and do my own thing.

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  77. @HR408: I wanted to get a rise out of you!! That's because I don't want you to leave. Hey, man, Paid InGold is PaidInGold. I didn't like what he did to WU, but I am also not WU's big brother. Dude, always know, I do appreciate your posts.

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  80. I hate the DHS, and THAT is literally

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  82. Shouldn't this title read: "The American Government tried to pull off a false flag but a patriot blew the whistle"? Sons-a-bitches

    http://news.yahoo.com/feds-us-man-planned-blow-pentagon-210116487.html

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  83. @Led - You of all people know not to piss me off. I can get your info padded up on this thread at any time. I know my own genius, and I hate wasting it on petty battles, but this thing with WU, is between me and him, so step aside if you dont mind. Im glad you like my posts... whoopty doo... Im not here for you. Im here to provide information otherwise unknown or lightly scanned to others without the bullshit comments involved. I dont want to be here starting internet wars with people I dont know. I want to unify our cause with people I dont know in hopes that one day I actually get to sit down and share a pitcher of Double Daddy with a few of them and make progress against this tyranny ridden system. You are a good guy Led, lets not compare apples to oranges and stay the course. Let us never quarrel again, and stay focused on the prize. All for one and one for all!

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  84. I could do the same with your silver diagnostics

    Here is the thing: Told in advance of the decline. Gave levels, line, Fib, etc. Once they got smashed, I put my balls only the chopping block for everyone one to take a flick (called being a man). Since NO MOTHERFUCKER IS CORRECT 100% of the time..hhhmmm, This chart looks like what you had to eat for supper, I'll stand by my post that we'll see sub 25. Already got the gap correct (yet another post I did), but you most likely missed it, eh, bro?

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  85. @HR408: Will be the last "quarrel", promise you that

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  88. @WU - Cool. Just know that it was indeed metaphorical.

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  89. @WU - I am a nobody. The threat was empty and irrelevant. I write what I feel rather than acting upon my emotions. I write short stories as a hobby. Its just something Im good at.

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