Thursday, September 29, 2011

TA on the paper silver chart

Although I feel I am wasting my time right now, I will try to help out the paper traders here with a TA look at the paper silver chart. This is the daily.

From the April Run up we had what calls irrational paper exuberance. Trust me, I think Silver should already be at $200, but on paper and using algorithms, that run was fast, and the charts clearly show it needed to retrace to the MA. That being said, without 5 margin hikes in 8 days I think we could have kept going to $100 and beyond, but then Blythe and JPM would be toast and thats the end of that story.

RSI: Shows a decline to the 30 from the top in about 6 trading days. This has never pierced the 70 line since, mainly because as the summer went on, so did the margin hikes, and that's the end of that story. What we have now is an oversold RSI under the 30 algo, which means we are do for a pop. Could it move lower? Yup, it could stay in that red under 30, just as long it stayed in the blue 80 in April.

MACD: Fully confirms the RSI. BUT, in May we had to come down from the 3 into the -2. Now we have gone from 1 to -2 and counting. This tells me their is ZERO speculation left in this trade. The specs were wiped out in May, never to return. The margins have killed this trade.

Price: Although the recent move down felt bigger, it wasnt. And take away the $26 overnight Blythe 3 am print, and its looks a lot better. The May session was worse.

Where do we go from here?

In a normal market, we would bounce and test the upper band of that MA between $36-39 and then retrace and test again. My heart tells me this is it and to buy here, which I did (physical not paper). The reason I have not purchased paper silver here is that it may go lower. But my GUT also tells me we may see more downside on an Asian Holiday attack and especially before the Oct 18th CFTC meeting.

If you are thinking to yourself, how does that make any sense, I'll tell you why it makes PERFECT sense:

I am now rotating paper profits (and losses) into physical. So I am cost averaging so to speak into the physical metal 90% silver 10% gold. The reason for my recent purchase was because of a 45% move down in 3 days. Thus, it was on sale 45%. If you are waiting for the 100% sale to $0, you must be in Disney land.

But but but some say its going lower! So. You think I have the time to sell my physical? D0 you think I'm stacking my phyzz to sell it now? I'm buying EOW (End Of World) Insurance. I will pay my premium (PUT options) and one day, get it all back. Now you know where I stand on this 'trade': I think Chairsatan Bernank will print more along with everyone of his central bank cronies. They must keep the ponzi inflation going-deflation is NOT an option, I hope everyone realizes this. Some say he is done printing. I say he is not. Thats not to say he might be done this year. This is a long term turtle race play. Get used to it. Its made this way to shake shake shake you.

So from here if we see $22-24, which we might, I will buy more. And then at that point I will not sell my physical either. I will sell my PUT options, and buy even more phyzz, thanking Blythe for her fantastic derivative insurance scam. But dont be so stupid not to buy some here, as this MIGHT be the bottom. And I dont want to hear ANY crying if it is, and then see the donkeys chase it up and start buying at $40-$50 again! Dont want to hear it, because on a weekly chart we are forming a very long doji which might encompass the bottom here.

I am past the point of buying phyzz for investment. I can buy paper silver option and juniors for investment. I buy the phyzz for security, wealth preservation, and survival.

Any questions let me know if you are confused as to what I am doing.

Site is 99% ready. I am assuming a Saturday/Sunday launch for good.


  1. @sgs

    since you are not paper trading..a question...

    if many traders were to not paper trade and volume dried up would this put a dent in the paper trade scam..thanks for this site and the info you share

  2. The site has been "almost ready" since Christ was in diapers, dude.

  3. So I just got shipping notice on my 10 blind, retarded Cougars. Can't wait to see them. I have two wolf coins coming.

    I will never trade my silver for Federal Reserve Debt Notes,unless, something crazy happens and I can sell 100 ounces and pay off my mortgage. I am more inclined to walk away from my house and mortgage when I can buy new land with my silver. The only way I would sell silver for FRN's other than that, is if I had to to feed my family, but I have lots of food. I am also one of those old fashioned types that actually knows how to put a seed in the dirt and water it. Plenty of deer in my neck of the woods, and plenty of ammo.

  4. "The site has been "almost ready" since Christ was in diapers, dude"

    Ya fuckin tell me about it. You dont have to tell me about this holy fuckin shit I'm pissed. One month late. I know. No need to put my face in a blender about it fully aware.


    It already has dried up. The Comex is a joke, most are avoiding it bc it is a paper game. With margin hikes comes the drying up of levereage and with that, people move their paper trading elswhere.

    The Silver trade is now a physical trade. Hence the inordinant amount phyzz bought this week.

  5. In related news ...our friends at BAC would like to have more money please.

  6. SRSRocco, did you see this?

    Maybe it's you, but I don't think this is you.

  7. Still waiting on a fill from a Tues. am order of ASE's @ $ 32.50. Pretty big online dealer too. They've already cashed my check. Something stinks.

  8. $1584 is support for gold's exponential increase.... if you take away the sunday night lows which did not stick or print in US trading hours, and then look at where the rebound bounced off of (1584 -- once again in afterhours), the paper price seems to have bottomed. Comex contracts settled for now, so price to go back up... they don't want to blow the charade b/c of physical dealers running to low.

    I think we see stock market crash next week and gold/silver rise on safehaven trade. I mentioned this before, as we will see more pumping into US Bonds (omg are you serious?).

    Who really knows... but paper gold,paper silver, and I think miners are all in for quite a rally. The exponential run will be continuing.

    Volatility in the paper game has been declared. The first strike was down... let us see the volatility when QEIII happens and Europe Implodes on itself.

    Time is ticking...

  9. Seriously thinking about some FEB 2012 40 Strike Puts on the VIX ...

  10. err .. meant Calls .. strike that ( no pun )

  11. I got a bunch of those 2011 Somalian elephants that were listed on apmex a few days ago. It was gratifying to see brotherjohnf say he'd bought them as well later that night. It was more gratifying to see they had sold out by early next morning. It was even more gratifying to get them in the mail today and see how pretty they really are. It was mostest gratifyingest to see how well the numismatic value of perth/similar coins are holding up despite the selloff in silver spot. Love those coins! Had to buy another safe. Shit won't fit!

  12. Tom H...Yes I have read it. I have spoken with the senior editor at FSN yesterday. My article will be coming out Mon-Tues. It will be posted here and several financial websites plus one possible surprise.

  13. ScottJ,

    Additional we have earning reports starting next week and it wont be nice! It is setting up for a perfect storm, CFTC meet on the 18th, Greece may default the same day, Dow running on vapors! Get your shorts on!

  14. SGS, da mining shares my brother! Phyzz is for getting across the border or trading for a pig and a dozen eggs. I'm phyzzed up but... Da shares will make us mucho rich mi friend. Are they going to 2008 levels or do they stand tall from here. In 2008 some 3 dinero stocks went down to 16 cents. Fk sakes that would destroy most of us share holders.

    Throw a dog a bone. Sell and run or stand tall whats the call.

  15. Jasper,

    Not if all the mines become nationalized, when we return to a PM back currencies.

    Plan To Return America To the Gold Standard Set To Be Offered at Washington
    Lehrman, One-Time Member of Reagan-Era Gold Commission, Foresees Five-Year Transition
    By SETH LIPSKY, Special to the Sun | September 26, 2011

    NEW YORK — The next big step in the gold standard debate is going to be taken next month at Washington, when one of the original members of the Reagan-era United States Gold Commission offers a five-step plan to return America to sound money.

    The architect of the plan, Lewis Lehrman, a businessman and scholar, will present his program in an address October 5 at a conference in Washington on the how to return to a stable dollar. He will outline a five-step program to return America to a gold-backed currency within five years.

  16. We know they have to get rid of as much of the paper Silver at some point.. How are they going to do it? Drive it to Zero ! We know that the Real Phyzzz will be Dried up well before that time..

    I'm not a trader, but here are some lame thoughts.. We know that the Phyzzz is in Strong hands, and every dip just dries the real up.. The Suckers are in the Paper Silver with all their Stops set.. We know that the COMEX is Bone dry at this Point and all those numbers they put out each day are nothing but Bullshit !

    I think when we see paper silver being Drove into the dirt, they will have added a couple of other Fast computers for the trading, and we will see Paper go to almost Zero, while covering their Short positions for pennies.. They are so in our face with how evil they are anyways !

  17. SGS, your chart commentaries are not a waste of your time, nor mine. Trust me on this.


  18. @sgs Your view on phyz is that it is primarily for security, wealth preservation, and survival... But is it not possible to also buy it secondarily as an investment to make some serious coin? (no pun intended) I know it's not the same degree of ROI as the paper, but probably a safer investment method, no?

    Ps. I'm a fellow Canuck - thanks for all your hard work keeping us informed on wtf is going on in the world of silver and gold on a daily basis!

  19. Time to go back to using payphones and pagers.

  20. @Dr. Nick.. The answer is sure but, like someone else said i'm not trading my silver for fake money EVA. Maybe NWO money :) (kidding).. but, really unless you are dealing in numis and are a serious numinista, buy and selling phyzz to make "serious cash" is not easy... The point of phyzz is security. If you think this way you have no heartburn. No stress. I never get worried about spot price. It's wonderful. Just knowing my silver/gold botty is safely tucked away brings a sense of peace.

  21. Silver lags copper and could go lower from here this autumn. Yes, physical.

    Deflation is far from over yet. The EFSF is a pimple. $400B is not enough to cause hyperinflation, nor a big enough to bailout the big debt defaults coming, which will be very deflationary.

    Yes hyperinflation is probable, but NOT until after a lengthy hard dose of deflation. It has always been that way for 4000 years in sovereign debt crises. This time is NOT different. Read Reinhart and Rogoff's wonderful book about the history of sovereign debt debacles.

    Good luck and thanks for this site.

  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

  23. Question, SilverGoldSilver

    If all of the "little players" leave the paper market. Will the Morgue be able to continue the price control by playing the market with itself?

    Just had a vision of Blythe playing with herself!!

  24. @Jasper

    As far as the mining shares are concerned...GO LONG and STAY LONG! Dollar cost average into the shares. Why sell now and take a loss when you can accumulate more shares and lower your average price? This is just one of the ways the rich get rich.

  25. NYSE:SVM just printed $8.00

    Still next to no volume covering those Oct 7 Puts.

    pretty pretty pretty good!

  26. @georgesilver Even though the small specs are not active in comex silver, The Morgue can still play with the large specs. The small specs have been scared off since the May take down.

    Some day when silver has an epic run, the small specs will probably flock back in big numbers again.

  27. ^
    Then again, the small specs may not be back because the margin requirements are so high. It might be a cash market by next year, haha.

  28. @Dr.NickRiviera

    Silver is the most undervalued commodity possibly in the history of the world.
    Do your research.
    Lookup Israel Friedman. He's peppered within Butler @ Investment Rareties.

    Price projections at this point to most will sound incredulous.

    @SGS "face in a blender" LOLOL