Thursday, September 29, 2011

Normalcy Bias


The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before.

Click here for more...


  1. So SGS are the mining shares at the bottom or do we wait till end on next week with the Asians all partying? Many of us simple fools work most of the day so are unable to play the daily trends. Your thoughts would be appreciated as my cherry has been popped for like the third time in this bull market,,,ouch. Thx

  2. Greece finally falls in October. Bank on it! That will trigger a collapse in the Dow. Big S&P Put position on - insiders know whats up. This will also have a big effect on the PMs - espec. Silver. This will be the last great takedown. Most of the shorts will be covered then off to the races...At min. $100 po Silver by 12/12

  3. Robert: Amen to that. Dunno about October but it makes total sense that JPM will cover tons of shorts in a potential collapse. Why wouldn't they?

  4. 'American Spring' has begun

    A Message From Occupied Wall Street (Day Eleven)

    Immortal Technique Occupy Wall Street 2am

  5. Agree with Robert, but what do you mean by At min. $100 po Silver by 12/12. Does that mean 2012, or December 12th this year? Silver won't explode until the USD crashes.

  6. My timeline says that by Dec of 2012 you should see that price. Also, general stock markets will be resupported by govt. intervention in Nov. 2011 after the Oct. implosion...

  7. @ Robert
    Greece finally falls in October.

    Wishful thinking? Inside knowledge? I'm already as long as possible (Except for €1000 cash leftover from my last vacation) in PM's so why October? I reckon it'll drag out til next year.

  8. Well, the puts on the S&P are out there and the position is at an extreme. 2) The silver shorts got to be out by the 10/18/11 meeting on pos. limits with the CFTC. Hopefully, that is when they will have it this time! The CFTC can't delay this forever and Sen. Carl Levin has already taken action by dragging Gensler before Congress for these delays (See Harvey Organs Blog)3) We are due for a major Oct. crash, we haven't had one in at least a few years. Everything is lining up for a spectacular month ahead.

  9. How does this figure in if true?

    WARNING: When this news breaks, the euro could crash
    Insider reports Germany is about to re-introduce the Deutschmark...

  10. @Anyone

    Harvey states: "The 6th increase in margin requirements has delivered the silver comex as a physical market as leverage is basically gone."

    6:1 leverage is "basically gone?"
    I'm not a trader. Is this in comparison to Christian's testimony of leverage at 100:1? Anyone know where leverage was before the hikes?


  11. Dollar- lets not get too excited about placard wavers wasting time on deciding on which flag they should pick for "liberated" areas ....................
    the troika of left umbrage has appeared already (Chomsky, West, Moore) YAWN. Russell Simmons is on the scene, definitely not promoting his new book................

  12. @mossmoon,

    Did you watch the movie Inception? The dream goes deep.

    I may be wrong, but this leverage is the compounded leverage ON TOP OF the 100:1 leverage. In addition the contracts are settled in US Dollars which is itself leveraged.

    Which level of this dream (nightmare) are we on right now? I honestly don't know, but I keep a MEMENTO in my pocket at all times to remind me if I am dreaming or asleep. My MEMENTO is round, shiny, and was made when God created this earth.

    Our time of waking is nearly at hand. Already the sky is becoming light and the stars are nowhere to be seen. DAWN IS BREAKING!

  13. @Mossmoon, Christian wasn't talking leverage for which you can put a percentage down and make claim to the asset. He was saying that persons claiming ownership to the asset (silver) is in the multiples of hundred to 1.