Thursday, August 18, 2011

Nothing much to say really

I will be hedging tomorrow big time if I like what I see. I would like to see if the big banks roll over and die tomorrow that would give a false flag short, or it may be the real deal for another 10-20% shit kicking. My guess is we get a +500 DOW tomorrow to keep things consistent with the Fed's mandate and the CME's "orderly" market conduct. (add sarc)

Wouldn't mind a little rally here in the bank stocks so I can pick up more PUTS at lower premiums, especially on MS, C, AIG, and BAC. In the last 10 minutes of trading I saw some buying coming in on the SPY's, not sure if those were shorts covered for major profits or if new longs were initiated.

Nothing has changed since 2008. Those same tickers above are the same tickers I hammered short until my account was maxed out everyday (with the exception of Lehman and Bear which went to zero). And I'm sure shortly we will be at it again.

I had some wild dream number that Morgan Stanley will be $9 soon, not too sure where it hit me, but it might be a sign of whats to some.

It will be up to Europe tonight to see where we go tomorrow. If more rumors of banks being insolvent, this will get bad for longs (especially the fucktwits who bought the 'bottom' last week).

Those thinking that silver wont be tested with a swift, quick, and painless pillage are mistaken. Received a text today about an 11:00 am raid tomorrow. Keep your eyes open and shit in order and especially the Friday before Comex expiry is usually a doosy.

Lastly, if anyone can possibly fucking explain how SVM can be down over 5% today, please enlighten me with your magical economical and theoretical diarrhea. I feel like being fucking amused tonight.

57 comments:

  1. There might be an attempted raid but its gonna be from a higher level.

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  2. My GC target is 1893 and 44.51 for Silver.

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  3. Because SVM has to hit its third target, which is below 7.74. Just draw a straight line. Connect the intraday low of 8.07 on 6/17 to the intraday low of 7.74 on 8/9 and wait until it hits the line on...?? then you will know you'll have at least a bounce. Don't dismiss it.

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  4. @Mike S. Congrats, your corn spreads have done very well. Decided not to chase, so even though I was correct back in early July, could have made some good fiat on this leg up. Haven't figured the gold upleg lately, but here was my post about silver a little while ago..we agree!!

    Ledbedder said...
    With today's current price of 39.72 in SIU11, it broke out of a small wedge. If it manages to hold gains through the night sessions, then that move should take us to 40.40 then up to challenge 42.295. Then up to 44-45. Time frame is currently unknown.
    August 15, 2011 4:08 PM

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  5. @SGS: you got a gap at 9.43, so not to worry.

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  6. Anyone riding the FAZ roller coaster?

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  7. Led, if we agree I am VERY scared!

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  8. @MikeS: LOL!! Nah, bro, told you I was long term bullish on corn & other grains. You rode the train & I didn't. Doesn't mean we don't get to the same point, yes?

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  9. I have been a friend and student of Rick Ackerman (rickackerman.com) for over 12 years. Rick's hidden pivot method is one of the best technical analysis tools around. I highly recommend his site and if you're inclined take his course.

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  10. @Mike S: I get his free daily. Yes, he seems like he is very, very good. Just never pulled the trigger. I am always willing to learn new stuff.

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  11. Led, our styles are not dissimilar but I combine my T/A with insight from those "in the know." It took me a long time but I finally understand the rigged casino. Without inner circle access every trade is a gamble. The technicians have been getting run over by the metals, I just hold on for the ride and forget about stops. This bull hasn't even left the pen yet and I love the fact that the talking heads are all about "bubbles!" I've said it a million times, when Joe Sixpack is buying gold instead of running to the We Buy Gold Store with his 14K gold chains so he can pay his electric bill, we have a problem. Until the Hindu Gas Station Attendants in NJ can quote the spot price we have nothing to fear.

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  12. Led, Did I see somewhere you are in Pennsylvania?

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  13. Quick question...if metals are rising, how come mining stocks aren't catching up?

    I decided to do some simulated trading just for the hell of it. I know is Eric Sprott's PM ETFs did well, but the mining stock didn't. Why?

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  14. Just drew some traj. lines...looks like $1900+ before 12/31/11 Currently GCV11 is at 1835.2

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  15. @MikeS..yep, about 85 miles east of Pittsburgh.

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  16. Does anybody else find it interesting that the two banks that have been shorting silver the most have been "pumping" gold the most.

    First, the Morgue release an estimate of $2500, followed by HSBC revising their estimate and increasing it by 10% to $1590.

    Something doesn't feel right about this.

    I understand that FRN is losing value, fast. I can't understand why the two banks above are pushing gold.

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  17. Thats a safe distance I'm in Philly...

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  18. An observation, the GC:SI ratio arbs are putting a bid under Silver. If you've noticed, the slams have been muted for the past week. DaBoyz have lost their firepower.

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  19. @MikeS: agreed, we are not even close to a bubble. Even though I care deeply about my friends, the 2nd person (not the first, because it could be swayed by emotion) that asks me about investing in silver, I'm going to look to unload a hefty part of my PHYZZ. I wish someone could really, really tell me why so many people are zombies. I get the whole: kids, TV, work, tired, hate my spouse excuse, but for crying out loud, don't they wonder what in the hell is causing their food bill to go so high?

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  20. “We’ve put a notice in that we are going to sell two million shares of the Sprott Physical Trust, which would generate something like $32 million of proceeds, and it’s my intention to move that into (physical) silver. As you know I have opined very often that I think silver should trade at a 16/1 ratio to gold. That would imply a price today of something like $110 or $120, (and today) it’s $40.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/18_Eric_Sprott_-_The_Price_of_Silver_Should_be_$110_to_$120_Today.html

    The availability in dollar terms of gold is 100 times that of silver, so you can’t keep buying at a one to one ratio without something giving here. As long as people keep buying it you know the price has to go up, there is very limited supply. I think Comex has something like 27 million ounces (available for purchase), which is all of one billion dollars. What is one billion dollars these days? I mean there’s probably 500 different organizations that could clean them out.”

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  21. @MikeS: the city of brotherly...thump!! Unless you live in the right places, of course!

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  22. We’ve put a notice in that we are going to sell two million shares of the Sprott Physical Trust, which would generate something like $32 million of proceeds, and it’s my intention to move that into (physical) silver. As you know I have opined very often that I think silver should trade at a 16/1 ratio to gold. That would imply a price today of something like $110 or $120, (and today) it’s $40.


    ...The availability in dollar terms of gold is 100 times that of silver, so you can’t keep buying at a one to one ratio without something giving here. As long as people keep buying it you know the price has to go up, there is very limited supply. I think Comex has something like 27 million ounces (available for purchase), which is all of one billion dollars. What is one billion dollars these days? I mean there’s probably 500 different organizations that could clean them out.”

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/18_Eric_Sprott_-_The_Price_of_Silver_Should_be_$110_to_$120_Today.html

    Please do!

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  23. @Malcolm: once again, you bring a good quote.

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  24. @MikeS 14-0. But it is only pre-season. Haven't watched a play tonight. Time to go & watch a few snaps.

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  25. Burbs but close enough to have plenty of ammo and firepower.

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  26. Great audio!

    I have heard this theory before, that there is a 40yr cycle based upon ppl having kids, spending patterns and retirement.

    I coincides with all of the recession and booms, good stuff, though George Nori isn't that financially knowledgeable.

    PA meet KY! My sis when to school in Philly, I've hunted up SE of Pitt!

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  27. http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2011/08/great-depression-ahead-with-harry-dent.html

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  28. SGS
    How far in the future are your put options on the banks for, next month next week tomorrow? and where are you going to put options on slv going to be ?
    Thankx

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  29. My safe = sock drawer, but I have two full time armed guards: https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-xBYM3ge55IQ/Tb3aZNpUH1I/AAAAAAAAE40/-ZEzS6-4nD0/s512/goldsilver%252521.jpg

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  30. SVM? - good question, especially since management initiated that major share buyback program in June... You would think that they would want to put a floor under this deterioration.... Possibly they (we)are the victim(s) of that famous "long metal, short miner" hedge....some shorts are rakin it in...if I wasn't riding the VXX train along with the miners I would be totally choked

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  31. The United Sates of Pussies need to watch this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95zI8zrmxIQ

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  32. @Treez (and everyone else, into the future forever & ever): SGS, unless he is licensed, CANNOT give you specific advice. He can only say what HE is doing. So, these questions that pop up now & again asking for specifics, he cannot, by law, give them. Isn't AmeriKa great? Thank a scumbag LAWyer.

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  33. @10:16 post..meant STATES, but I think most of you understood.

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  34. @Treez: even though SGS is in Canada, those blood sucking mf'er would try anything to fine/arrest/hassle someone without a "license"

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  35. Looking forward to the raid. I've stacked a shitload already this week, I'm simply adding to the stack if there's a raid. I don't really care what the spot price is anymore. I'm buying as much as I can along with jacketed lead projectiles and their related delivery devices.

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. This is a rigged casino.I did the opposite of whatever the msn would say. I bought put options otm on those stupid MOMO stocks like lulu and gmcr, both had some epic face falling today. just want to use the profit and make a bet. I just wanna watch house horny welfare sheep get their world turned upside down soon.I live in Vancouver BC the most fucked up place on earth.

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  38. @RedTailGreyParrot: why do you think there will be a raid?

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  39. BEN DAVIS on KWN WORD HAS BEEN GOOD AS GOLD

    Ben Davis who has been interviewed on KWN has had a great forecasting record on gold and silver. He was one of the few saying that silver was going to explode in the late summer of 2010. He also called the short term top in silver a week before it corrected at the end of April. 10 days ago he said gold would head to $2000-$2200 by the end of the year.

    This is what he is saying about Silver now:

    Gold to hit $2,100 by year-end but silver is better trade, Davies tells KWN

    Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London, today tells King World News it's "obvious to me that someone is trying to hold the price of silver down." Davies thinks silver is a better trade than gold now but still expects gold to reach $2,100 by the end of the year.

    If Davis says SILVER is a better trade than gold...we can take that to the bank. If he is correct, we will see $65-$75 silver by the end of the year.

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  40. New Fukushima problems. Black Friday beginning overseas: The News UNIT Blogspot

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  41. @Treez: with all due respect: San Francisco, CA, USA is THE most F'd up place on earth. Bored? Just do a detailed search. Most Americans hope that a very localized earthquake happens.

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  42. I'm thinking Dec. 2011 puts on C at the $15 strike or AIG puts for Nov. 2011 at the $18 or $20 strike.

    Thoughts...

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  43. Gold is now 1844 as I type. I won't be surprised to see 1900 tomorrow morning. I wonder when will be the next margin hike? Friday afternoon ?!

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  44. @Ledbedder...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGlJZiaT6kA

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  45. chalmers why are u betting on diluted shares? Everyone is already playing there anyways, pick a financial that has at least a 5billion plus market cap but has low option volume. If the stock has low option volume then that means proprietary algorithms are pricing their option asks based on historic volatility, not on actual trading demand. and if you find a troubled financial that actually has relatively low volatility in the past 3 years, you will get good option prices, preparing for the sharks to pursue that financial

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  46. ntrs or trv. ntrs looks cheaper probably cause the share price is lower, but look at the month to month volatility compared to most other financials since 09, its tame for both ntrs and trv

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  47. @ledbedder:
    I dont live in San Fran so i have no clue.

    I just know when something happens sheep panic follow off the cliff. Basically I go with my gut, and read what ppl have written in the yahoo message board its useful to see how emotionally attached ppl get to investments. I sit here all day reading zero hedge, this site, and see what the MSM is spewing, so I can try to figure out what the sheep will do. They are emo investors, so its the only way i can figure out which way momo's go. I basically only buy options that expire in a week or less. Hopefully i can figure this shit out as well as the rest of you.

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  48. @Commodity World News...

    I don't have an options screener for that. I wonder if TD Ameritrade has one. I'll have to check. If you have any suggestions on low option volume financials with a $5B+ market cap, feel free to email me. You can go through my web site (which hasn't been updated in months)

    http://www.adamworksforus.com/p/contact.html

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  49. SRS, I wonder what changed since his previous interview on August 4 where he sounded almost bearish... Expecting silver to just sort of chop around for awhile and go nowhere? Maybe it was this: "It feels as though silver is throwing off its industrial shackles and is performing as a monetary asset."

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  50. flaunt...I know what you mean. I listened to that interview myself. He wasn't bearish, but he did favor gold on this round and said silver would more than likely take out its previous highs.

    I gather he has changed is views as silver has not at least kept up with gold in a parallel move. Gold is now only $250 away from $2,000, but silver is still only $40 an ounce. If it was supposed to keep up with gold it should be at $45 by now or a tad higher.

    As Davis now see manipulation, it is only a matter of time before big money and hedge funds come in and sniff out a easy target.

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  51. Glad MikeS & Ledbedder found common ground.

    I'm all out of fiat. Every check in fiat I get will go to cold steel. Get yours.

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  52. What time zone 11am? If it happens or not. Stacking...just want to know if I should wait a little more. I am EST; thank you.

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  53. scott: they tried to attack at 10:30 am est, was sucessful for about 5 minutes. I sold my puts on a handsome profit. The buyers are back for now.

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