Just so you know this is like finding a needle in a haystack, this may mean nothing, but I think this original trade was a short, and this donkey just covered a lot higher, if it was long, we would have seen the sell order in and around the $42-44 mark.
After this print silver rallied today.
Again, just my quick eye I'm passing on. Just so you know, entities like the Morgue are there own clearinghouses, they see who places bets, and where, and can really push the limits if they want to skin large investors.
Click here to see the first trade on this...
Funny things going on SGS. I've tried to post this like 6 times.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.panamericansilver.com/news/documents/NCIB-NR-Aug-26-11.pdf
Read paragraph 4. Is there a revolt brewing among the miners?
This goes to all of us (which is most) that cannot persuade people we care about or like to invest in PHYZZ. I have a very well off Uncle that calls PHYZZ relics. I sent him some predictions (back in Oct 2008), and one of them was to buy gold, but esp. silver. So, I went back to Oct. 2008. Even with a premium could have gotten some at about $14 an oz, this should have been his story...(NOTE: my uncle is a very, very conservative investor. As a matter of fact, he could be worth triple+ if he would have taken some more chances). He could have easily invested 150K back then, but I asked him, no, begged him, to invest "just" $50,000. So, let us fast forward to todays close of SIU11. 50K at $14 would have gotten him 3,571 oz. 150K would have gotten him 10,714 oz. We are currently at 40.885. His 50K would be worth $146,000 and his 150K would be worth $438,042.
ReplyDeleteHe emailed me my prediction and, believe it or not, ACTUALLY said he "wished" he would have invested in silver.
Moral of the story: just try, even just one more time. Don't get heated, but just try.
At first glance, look like the metals still need to go down further. GCZ currently at 1791.6 and SIZ11 at 40.601
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder,
ReplyDeletehow many more days down? After all heres the monthly schedule.
Stolen from Truds blog!
Sept. the Tooth: August Jobs Report (Expected to be Lousy)
Sept. 6th Through Sept. 13th: Announcement of the Manchild Plan Speech and MSM Hype. Rally in Gold and Silver
Sept. 9th-Sept 12th Peak in Rally (Maybe a Another Margin Requirement Hike, most likely on Sept. 9th)
Sept 13th (Tuesday Night) Long winded Speech outlining Enormous Spending
Sept. 14th-Sept 18th(And Probably into Sept. 20th) Silver and Gold Beat-Down
Sept. 20-21st The Ben Bernank Hinting at QE3
Starting Sept. 21st. Rally in Gold and Silver
@malcolm: just don't know, bro. My targets (or at least alot) goes on the day to day stuff. Even though Blythe, et. al. "control" this market, TA can still give some good paths. I guess that is why I'm this annoying fly that won't give up on TA, as I know (and I think proven) works. So many people want to buy & sell at the exact bottoms & tops, and I respond: "are you kidding me"? If Turd wants to do longer out predictions, hey, that is great. That is not me. My posts have almost no responses to them, so, to be quite honest with you, I am wondering why do I bother. I realize this blog is mostly about buying the PHYZZ, but, if you see the ebbs & flows of the market, you might be able to get that PHYZZ cheaper. I don't know, man, I just don't want people to come to SGS's site, see my handle and roll their eyes. On a personal note: closed the pool yesterday, as fall (well, late summer) is telling us it is time to pack it in. 50 degree overnights are now the norm.
ReplyDeleteLed, I agree with your statements. I simply scale in/scale out and follow the trend.
ReplyDeleteas a follow up, when i first started I used the LIFFE contract for silver as it gave me the ability to scale at a smaller exposure. With intraday volatility in Silver you can really not get crushed to badly if you buy support, sell resistance and scale each way
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder,
ReplyDeleteOur summers average around 80%, lol we had 6 days of 80 degrees, yesterdays low was 55, after Labor day its all over.
Back to trading, I pay attention to yous TA but unfortunately I usually jump in to early, though you play the futures more that I do. So, do you trade your established positions daily or strictly long term?
@Lebetter, I read all of your posts. The reason I don't respond is because I am not an investor, and have no clue what the fuck you are talking about, nevermind adding anything remotely intelligent. I am trying to learn what you post, but it is way over my head. So anyway, just because I don't respond does not mean I do not read or appreciate. If I can ever grasp the "Led Gap Theory", I will be sure to let you know. TH
ReplyDelete@Tom H: except for PHYZZ and food, I am not investor either.
ReplyDeleteTom H.
ReplyDeleteLook up technical analysis of stocks & commodities and fibonacci
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis8.asp#axzz1WSUvGBvp
Ledbetter and SGS-
ReplyDeleteI will not bother linking the address on etrade since it is a million miles long, but there was an insane spike in volume on the Sprott silver fund today just immediately after it hit its low for the day. Otherwise there was hardly any action in volume other than the first hour of trading on PSLV. Is this a sign of manipulation aka the JPM insiders just happening to buy big volume at the perfect time?
@malcolm: rarely do I day trade. I mostly swing trade. I consider swing trades 2-??? I don't know 8 or 12 days. Truly, it all depends on what I see, so there is no "right" answer. Since options are so stacked against the buyer, I try to limit, although, I am completely human & sometimes cannot resist some stink trades that have exploded 1,000+%, but that is rare. If you want to swing trade, grains are the way I would go. Great liquidity.
ReplyDelete@Thorfinnr: SGS will have to take this one as I really don't have a good filter on how to interpret volume. I will say this, today's bar is an ugly one. If I were to make a forecast right now, I say more downside.
ReplyDeleteguys stop calling him ledbetter its LedbeDDer, he already went over this with the dog story :P
ReplyDeletehttp://www.send2web.com/files/Gold%2008-27-2011.pdf
ReplyDeleteI've done well with options not to say I havent had some losers :(. Actually, my biggest one was CORN calls, arrrr, that fucker set me back about 1500 bucks, you live and learn!
ReplyDeleteI'll look it to swing trades. Though I try to hold options for less than a week or two. This market changes way fast and there is "NO LOGIC"!
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@MikeS: read his stuff while he was,err, away..what are your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteSorry for the misspelling LedbeDDer.
ReplyDeletePSLV price @ 2:21 PM- 18.82 (day's low in US trade) @ volume around 16K.
PSLV price @ 2:27 PM- 18.90 @ volume around 195K.
According to xe.com- silver price per oz
@ 2:20 PM- 40.38 (day's low in US trade).
silver price per oz @ 40.42 around 2:30 PM.
Boy somebody or bodies sure guessed well.
@Tom H & everyone else: Don't sell yourself short. If you want to learn this, you can. But, you also must have the passion. I LOVE this stuff. Can you do okay if you don't love it? yes, you can...but I am so passionate about it because of what it can accomplish. I guess until you have that passion, you won't quite understand.
ReplyDeletethorn: I havent looked at it, was it a rouge print? Sometimes, like today in SLV dark pool trades are printed and causes a spike in volume.
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder,
ReplyDeleteWhat charting software do you use?
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ReplyDelete@malcolm: gonna blow your mind...
ReplyDelete@A: thank you
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder: ha, deleted it after reading your post re selling one's self short - but yes, definitely appreciated, and paid attention to.
ReplyDeleteHey guys, i dont post often but have been reading the comments for months now. Same as Tom H, i dont know what the fuck your saying, but im trying to learn. im a blue collar looking to learn this, and hopefully transition to trading. where can i start? where did you guys learn this stuff? how much cash does one need to get into the game?
ReplyDeleteSGS, I was just looking at the volume graphic from etrade, displayed in bar graph form, not like what you show numerically in this post. The bar was green @ 2:27 but there were 4 smaller yet longer than usual red bars preceding it. Not a knowledgeable stock person but common sense tells me there was some planned red (downward) action preceding this BIG green spike in the middle of the afternoon where volume was otherwise non-existent. Although the general trend had been downward all day, this spike in volume just so happened to correlate with the lowest silver price of the day. Seems fishy.
ReplyDelete@malcolm: just use Optionsxpress and TFC charts. Again, I keep it simple. I have no reason to subscribe to anything.
ReplyDelete@Leadbedder,
ReplyDeleteI'm on Optionsxpress, I have to check out TFC.
@TMZ,
Just buy PHYZZ, its safer! I wouldnt recommend trading in stocks, options of futures until you had some practice.
In the end I only trade to add to my PHZZ and pay bills. But, having said that there are trading companies that offer tutorials and "virtual" practice accounts.
@TZM: this is my opinion, and my opinion only. You should get at least 6 months of long storable food. That is for each person that lives in your household. Also, either get a very good water purifying system or buy bottled water. Don't know where you live. Get a "mountain" bike. Get some protection: whether it is guns & ammo (preferred), baseball bat or whatever you feel comfortable with. If you get all of that, then I say try to get $1500 (minimum) in U.S. dollars, preferably $1 $5 and $10 dollar bills. You get all of that...then buy 1 oz. silver as much as you can.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with Ledbedder!
ReplyDeleteFirst things first!
@MALCOLM: the only reason I use www.tfc-charts.w2d.com is that they have weekly & monthlies (continuous). Too bad optionsxpress is too damn lazy
ReplyDeletei live in vancouver suburbs, i have about a months worth of food and water, thousands of rounds of ammo, and 4 rifles/shotgun. im always adding a little when i go grocery shopping. i make a very decent wage. but i hate my job. there is something very appealing making money with money from home. im trying to maximize my situation, if trading from home, playing markets could be a new hobby im interested in pursuing it.
ReplyDelete@malcolm thanks for the heads up, ill look into practice accounts for commods. i opened one in dec 08 for stocks, did well, but never pulled the trigger with my own cash as i was just in my 3rd year apprenticeship training, not working so i was poor.
@TZM: if you want a hobby, collect stamps.
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder,
ReplyDeleteYes that is one disappointment about there service! and the slow popup options chain widow!
Ledbedder, BTW can you have a look at this guys charting/analysis and tell me what you think?
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2011/08/slv-silver-tower-.html
Thanks in advance!
LOL!
ReplyDelete@malcolm: This is why I don't make long term predictions (much), but here is my humble opinion: NO WAY. 33.509 is the most extreme, and I do mean extreme I think it would go down to by 12/31/11. In all fairness, he said $28 is a possibility, but I find it foolish. I have never taken 2 seconds to study Elliot Wave, so the only opinion I know is the few times I have glanced at it, I don't agree. There is a guy that blends some sort of wave with seasonals that seems to have a good track record, but, again, I mostly want to do my own work.
ReplyDeleteTrading is NOT a hobby it's WAR. Its a ZERO sum game. You will lose 10's of thousands before you make a nickel. Don't kid yourself into thinking this is easy, it is NOT! Paper trade for months and have a plan. Master your skill before you risk real money. You MUST have a system or you WILL fail!
ReplyDeleteProfessional Traders get rich at the expense of Novices...remember that before you place a trade.
ReplyDeleteOne last piece of advice...Sell up spikes and buy Down spikes. You brain will tell you to chase the move but that's the wrong thing to do.
Do NOT quit your day job!
Led, Armstrong is a very smart guy and I read his dispatches with regularity. Jim Sinclair is my guiding light and has been for years. Nobody is better than JS when it comes to gold! Nobody!
ReplyDelete@Mike S: ditto, but then again, I am preaching to the choir
ReplyDelete@ Mike S: Yes, I know Armstrong is a very smart guy, that is why I continued to read him as he was serving time. Jim is am true beacon for the long term.
ReplyDelete@TZM I agree with MikeS. I'm not a day trader because I know myself too well. I wait for 2 more ticks to get in and they never come. I'm not disciplined enough to buy when I have determined a fair price. I was waiting last Wednesday for the pullback from $44 to buy a box of Maples. It hovered around $39.80 for like a day, and I thought, "Maybe the margin increase will push it lower." It went below $38 while I was sleeping, and I woke up Thursday to find I had missed the boat. Bottom line - I FINALLY pulled the trigger today at $40.60, but it cost me $500 more than if I had just done it last week not waiting for the last $.10. Trading is HARD mentally.
ReplyDeleteDon, You beat me by .14, I bought 2 monsters today at 40.74 +premium. At $100/oz that will be a rounding error:)
ReplyDeleteLedbedder said...
ReplyDeleteAt first glance, look like the metals still need to go down further. GCZ currently at 1791.6 and SIZ11 at 40.601
August 29, 2011 5:34 PM
SIZ11 currently at 40.975. so there has been a nice rally. Looks like silver will go near 40.25 and as low as 40.05 +/- GCZ currently at 1802.5. Currently no up or down target
I'm the same as Tom H, not a trader, I'm an engineer and stick to what I know specially when my hard earned money is at stake. I love reading the posts however, don't stop. That futures trade with corn was the most entertaining so far. Ever since I found the phyzz I'm never venturing back into the markets. Once the ratio to real estate gets in line, I'll get back in that.
ReplyDelete@Ledbedder - Nope... that was the bottom this time. Were goin to the moon now. We'll be above $40 for the duration of the century from here on out.
ReplyDeleteI agree, highrise. I don't think they'll let it get under 40 again. I'm willing to bet this is a magic number for a lot of physical metal buyers and if they let it get below that, TPTB are afraid there would be an increased run on phyzz. They want to keep the more recent investors, like myself (bought in July at 36.70) convinced that anything above 40 is too risky a buy. Look back to April of this year. The month started at 38 per oz and then flew past 40 to crash after 48/49. They created a psychological barrier there. These power hungry demons want to keep the common man powerless and ripe for extermination.
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is...I'm buying MAD phyzzz right now... gold and silver. Im going to add a .30-06 to my collection very soon as well.
ReplyDeleteHa ha. I've got a .30-06. All I can say is get your ass some earplugs too. Your hearing will be shot for 5 minutes after you fire that thing!
ReplyDelete@DonS
ReplyDeleteGive Bullion Direct a try. They have an "auction", their Nucleo Exchange. You can put your "stink" bid in at night and go to sleep. See it get filled over night. Its not always hit and not always in the total you want, but the more popular coins get more action.
Their premiums are very competitive, better than all others I have seen for the under ~$5000 investor. Shipping costs are also low. However, perhaps the only drawback is the longer typical delivery time, which may be up to two week.
@highrise408: If this mornings actions hold true, And the bottom is in as you state, I will gladly accept that I am only 90% right.
ReplyDelete