Friday, August 12, 2011

Consolidating

Lets first look at Gold. Expect Gold to trade in between $1675 and $1800 Aug 26th, the Jackson Hole QE3 announcement from Shalom Bernanke. We are going to enter a phase of consolidative volatility, in which they try to shake the new weak longs out of their newly acquired rational exuberance.

Silver now looks like its will coil and bounce around in here for a while.

Rest assured, on the next leg higher going into the fall, silver should outpace gold on a percentage basis, and the moves should be fruitful.

I have liquidated 15% of my paper assets and put them into Silver phyzz.

I am long TK till it goes to $3-5 or $0, whichever comes first.

I am long APE.V

I have Jan 21 Calls of SVM (silvercorp) at $15

I have a smaller call position in SLV for Oct 22 at $41.

The new site is well underway, and I suspect it will be ready for September 1st.

Buy the dips, keep stacking, new years evening should be a blast.

P.S. I am getting the feeling as if I am in the summer of 2007. We have seen all the warnings, yet the media is pumping 'the worst is over' Its amazing how just a week ago people were screaming murder. Idiots.

12 comments:

  1. Watching CNBS and the euphoria in Cramer and the other talking heads is maddening. It's beyond me why these 'experts' continue their blustering.

    The errogency (sic) of mainstream media is sickening. I'm happy silver will bounce and troll at this level, just allows me to acquire more in small amounts.

    I'm reminded of the scriptures, "Pride comes before the fall."

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  3. Anyway, I took the advice of the good folks on here mixing American Silver Eagles and junk silver. I bought 100 ASEs and a roll of Walking Liberty halves yesterday. I don't think we're going to go much lower on silver but if it does I'll pick up a few more ounces of phyzz.

    I'm also going to purchase more Tinka. Can't wait for the fall.

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  4. Make sure you do NOT put your phyzz in a "Safe" Deposit

    This is happening in London. It's an excuse to steal your money and will be coming to the US.

    "Police have seized a potential £1 billion “treasure trove” of cash, drugs and guns in an unprecedented raid on concrete vaults holding 7,000 safety deposit boxes".

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  5. silver tracking higher today ...only TPTB's bs to get you in and then dump price so that you get beaten out of your love of money...they are lower then pond scum...

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  6. Couple of things.

    APE.V press release

    Aug. 3, 2011, 8:02 a.m. EDT
    New Metallurgical Tests by Apogee on Leachable Silver in the Oxide Layer Demonstrate Recoveries Up to 81%

    Apogee Intersects 4.0 Meters Grading 350.75 g/t Silver and 8.0 Meters Grading 242.38 g/t Silver at the Pulacayo Deposit

    Apogee Intersects 3.0 Meters Grading 659.00 g/t Silver.

    Donkey Dick= Big

    Second:
    This guy Serge Farra a chartists make a good case for GLD/GDX/Gold crash, most of his other predictions have been on. I did see a decline but not a deep as he predicts.

    http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/page/2/

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  7. Adam,

    Good move.

    Instead of medicine balls, I flip around peace and morgan dollars in my hand while I chill and surf the net.

    The shit won't dent, can take a beating, and are a great reminder to what happened to our fabulous fiat experiment.

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  8. Malcolm....indeed Apogee has hit some nice intercepts. Bolivia was one of the top producers of silver in the world from 1600-1800's. I took a look at Apogee's 43-101 to see what their bottom line was so far. Of course they are still drilling holes...so mineralization can change, but this is the deal so far:

    TOTAL INDICATED:

    SILVER = 53 g/t
    ZINC = 1.42%
    LEAD = 0.63%

    or

    SILVER = 11.9 million ounces
    ZINC = 219.9 million pounds
    LEAD = 97.2 million pounds
    -----------------------------------

    According to Geological Mineral Service of Bolivia between 1883-1956:

    The total production from the Pulacayo mine during this period as estimated by the National Geological and Mineral Service of Bolivia (SERGEOTECHMIN) is 678 million ounces of silver, 200,000 tons of zinc and 200,000 tons of lead

    We can see that Pulacayo produced at great deal of silver from its one mine. Apogee so far as a preliminary 6.5 mine life with an average of 2.3 million ounces of silver production a year. This is about what US Silver Corp is producing in Idaho which is currently trading at $0.61 a share.

    Of course the costs may be lower in Bolivia, but just like everything else, the ore grades have even fallen in Bolivia. I can't find exact data, but I imagine the Pulacayo mine started producing silver at 10-20 ounces of silver per ton in the beginning. An average ore grade of 53 g/t turns out to be 1.7 ounces per ton.

    Poor south America....has the same problems as everywhere else....and that's falling ore grades.

    Malcolm, I am not trying to rain on your parade, I just want to show that HIGH INTERCEPTS are nice in press releases, but the truth of the matter is FALLING ORE GRADES ARE A BITCH.

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  9. SRSrocco,

    Good point! As you have shown world wide there are falling ROI and proven reserves. But, having said that, what is the potential value of what is indicated? That is based on future valuation of Ag.

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  10. Malcolm....according to their preliminary assessment they have two different scenarios. The BASE SCENARIO is developing the mine and crushing mill. The ALTERNATIVE is developing the mine and sending the ore to Potosi for treatment. Potosi is know as the largest silver mine in the world.

    BASE ASSESSMENT = $109 million cash flow over life of mine

    ALTERNATIVE = $58.9 million cash flow over life of mine

    This is based on getting an average of $14.78 an ounce...and bascially little more than $1.00 pound for zinc and lead.

    If Apogee gets more an ounce for their silver, the cash flow will more than likely rise substancially. Again...this is the same as what US Silver Corp is producing and they are only trading at a lousy $0.61 a share.

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  11. summer of 07 is the analogy of the day

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  12. SGS, thanks for your dedication and hard work!

    trutro, a dynamic of pride is that it is hypnotic... makes it hard to snap family members out of their trance.

    Recent Ratigan and Santelli brilliance on You Tube clearly demonstrates the 2nd American Revolution has begun.

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