Friday, June 24, 2011

WARNING: No delivery notices in silver, again.

Just in from an insider. Something fishy smells this way in comex silver.

Not to be captain obvious, but when this gentlemen calls me personally and tells me, its something to listen to.

Get your Phyzz on.


  1. Im just a dope corn spreader who knows nothing. I just buy phyzz with corn spread.

  2. I think they'll be able to keep this going at least until the end of the year.

  3. this draw down in phyzz in killing them very very slowly...

  4. Everything is going exactly as planned.

    I mean that literally. There could not be a better set of events going on right now for those who stack silver. OI is up. Inventories dropping like a brick. Spot price falling on high volatility. These are all signs of an impending COMEX implosion. No need for insiders to tell you that. It is obvious to anyone who really thinks about it.

    50% chance the COMEX goes bust by the end of July. The chance of survival decreases by 20% every delivery month thereafter, until some rabbit is pulled out of some hat. And even that will do nothing but give us more time to stack.

    So keep stacking. It's really that simple.

  5. There are no notices because theres nothing to deliver! I tried to tell you that 3 months ago.

  6. Just can't let it go, can you Mike?

  7. Thomas M: like you were reading my mind. I was about to ask if someone watches OI. Personally, I am too lazy too do so, but from the little bit I studied, I believe there is something to it.

  8. SGS and friends,

    This is my first time posting. I only started investing about a year ago, found SLV and rode my way up (pretty much tripling my money with options). SLV eventually led me to you and Turd, among others (already being a fan of Max Keiser, Celente and Shiff), and you guys really helped key me on to the SLV scam and in general a much greater sense of out macroeconomic fucktarded situation. Thanks for that (more donations coming!). I've been stacking away ever since and am pretty much all out of the stock market except for some miners, SPXU and one real earth that makes me want to kill myself.

    My question is this: I'm still pretty much playing chicken with some Jan 2012 SLV calls for $25 bought months ago, my only pony left in the paper game. And this IS straight up chicken - if SLV gets back up over $50 I am making something like 10 grand on a $2,000 investment, and exponentially more as it gets higher and higher (obv). What should my strategy be with these? Hold until mid-July? Try to stick it out? Candid advice appreciated...

  9. Mike, in all seriousness. You say (claim) you're a fundamental trader/speculator, yes? Well, how about we do this (if SGS will allow). You post important fundamental news, hopefully I will see it. At that point, I will take over on the technical and give you points to look for. Sound ok? Don't hate you, bro. You just pushed the wrong buttons, and I pushed back. I want us BOTH to make money. Deal?

  10. A Friday gift for you Led...Barclays Ag Fund.

  11. don't know what that means since I don't listen to fuckdemental news

  12. ALI GATOR: corn is going down. Silver: who knows, except that I hope up.

  13. You can do what you wish with the info I post. I figured after a few accurate tid bits, those who wish to follow will, those that have no interest will not.

    I shared an experience with SGS via private email a few months ago regarding a comex delivery. The near future will prove that my information was 100% accurate. I invest at my own risk as should everyone. I have no axe to grind just trying to pass along timely information. I don't own or trade equities and therefore my info is not pump and dump.

  14. sounds stupid but i'm just confused what a comex default will do to prices...

  15. i would presume a comex default would result in short term dislocation. It may (no guarantee) provide a bargain opportunity. There are other exchanges so there will be decent price discovery. Frankly, I have my doubts on a default as the exchange would declare force majeur and settle in cash, as they have been doing at a premium for months. Big Ben will have to really crank up the presses on this one.

  16. This will be my last corn post for a while. Corn supplies are at critically low levels. The situation is dire. The government (USDA) is doing everything they can to talk down prices by inflating crop reports. Producers know this is bullshit as does smart money. The corn trade could be an opportunity to make the trade of one's career but you need patience and deep pockets. Scale in and book profits on a percentage of your position as price spikes. Buy weakness especially next Thursday after the crop report if they slam it.

    Good luck

  17. MikeS: You talking ticker: DBA?

  18. @mikeS: Sorry for stupid ?'s I live in Idaho and there is certainly something going on in corn. I do phyzz and options only, anyway I could get in on corn in your opinion other than futures? Thanks.

  19. Hi MikeS,

    Just back from vacation, interested in corn traing. I would appreciate you post whatever you feel like. A corn post might fuel an interesting discussion that can educate readers.

    I'd also appreciate the courtesy of the participants so as to avoid arguments and respect this blog which is SGS's. Anybody is invited to provide insights (silver, corn...).

  20. You jokers claiming COMEX will go bust in July are the same ones that were supposed to take out JPM in 11Q1, and then 11Q2, and now suddenly stop talking about JPM and are foolishly obsessed with the COMEX.

    Ill be the one asking you guys in July what your next target is. Probably, nothing.

  21. COMEX not busting this year. Look for gold to be at $1750 and silver to be at $45 by the end of the year. I do think the COMEX will go bust next year, but that should happen when all the cards in the house of cards fall. I'd stack the phyz and get food and other preps ready. Maybe even invest in wheelbarrows, cuz you'll need those to buy anything.

  22. MIkeS. I'm with you, corn supplies are VERY low.

  23. MikeS, corn is down 2.67% today. For future commodity trading, isn't the leverage 20 times ? So, if someone bought corn yesterday, he would have lost 50% of his investment. Am I right ?

  24. cocnut..,

    you only lose when you sell down or your options expire worthless!

    I have Dec11 futures options on corn with a strike of 790, corn is going to be fine!

    It's obvious that the EE is targeting commodities, especially oil and corn because they are in everything!

    Just make sure you go long!

  25. As we all know from watching paper silver, the futures don't always represent whats going on in the real cash market. FYI, cash corn was trading .68 above July futures this morning. Just like theres no silver at the comex, theres no corn in the silos.

    Just look at the 650 Dec calls today. They were bid well in the face of the Dec contract being slammed for 270 bps. I have both Dec futures and Dec Calls long and will add heavy below 600 if we see it. December is a long way off and I will stick to my 8 handle call.

  26. @ Everyone

    What are your thoughts on...

    1) Gold getting smacked down as soon as it approached it's all time high.

    2) The 60mb oil dump by the IEA.

    3) Silver below $35??? WTF?

    4) How long all this BS is gonna last?? When are metals finally gonna go?

  27. $33 - $37 range till Sep, then up 25% by Dec, boring, yawn, but that looks like the future!

  28. MikeS,

    What a good entry point for corn? I'm expecting a summer general commodity pull back on QE immediate absence.

    Anybody commenting on corn silos? As per my (limited) understanding, the COT reveals the commercials are happy with the current price, am I wrong? if the smart money who got in last year unwinds, I'd say the hell breaks loose in corn (targeting 500 maybe). This all is from trading perspective, not fundamental.

  29. MikeS- how can you say with such authority the comex has no silver? i have read harvey's past blogs and it seems like for years he has been warning of a comex default?? i really have no idea if one is imminent, just like to be objective...thx..

  30. Also, what about today's (friday) late session crude action? couldn't really send it down $90.

  31. Head:

    I suggest you refrain from talking out of your ass. We were talking about defaults, which have already happened, and have happened every month since December.

    We know well enough that JPM won't be taken down by this. They are a zombie bank, and the only way to take out a zombie bank is to remove the head, or destroy the brain. This is a solid chest shot. But killing JPM isn't the point. The point is increasing your purchasing power.

    That said, here is what happens when the COMEX goes bust, total default, force majeur, or shuts down. Currently, the COMEX is the ONLY silver futures exchange. This means that ANYONE wanting to hedge future production has to do so through them. It also means ANYONE wanting an assured price on silver to be delivered in the future must do so through them. When they shut down/can't make with the silver deliveries, those who wanted the silver will see that. They will be forced to buy off of the physical market, and keep it themselves.

    Do you see where this is going? The buyers want an assured price. That means they will buy NOW. The sellers want to hedge, but they can't. They also can't sell future production. Oh shit. That means all of that demand that is normally shifted off to the future hits the physical market NOW.

    This is called an industrial panic. The users will start by buying now to lock in prices, and take delivery, which will result in higher prices, causing those who need it in the future, but were waiting until they needed it to also buy now, driving prices up, and so it will go, higher and higher, either until an inelastic commodity becomes inelastic, or until the silver mines catch up (unlikely to be soon as they are barely able to keep pace now).

    Remember, this is in an environment of extremely low inventories. There is less silver on the surface of the Earth than there has been since records started being kept by the ANCIENT EGYPTIANS.

    So yeah, BTFSYFI (buy the fucking silver you fucking idiot).

  32. Crap, the second use of the word "inelastic" should have read "elastic".

  33. Haha, im laughing all the way to the bank with my July SLV puts but ya, i have no problem selling actual silver to you at overpriced levels as well.

    Notice i said nothing about being a bear on a longer term - im just a realist in the shorter term. That, and working 20yrs in commodities at a BB in nyc/london gave me a *bit* of an insight into comm trading, but ya no issues, hard to argue here really when the mood is so biased.

    Point is, im not here to spread disinformation. Look at some earlier points were i totally suggested to short as silver was GOING UP but only from around $42 level, until the current bust that we all know happened.

    I will gladly flip long when QE3 is announced. If you want a safe bet, stick to gold. The big traders can't do as much there to flip out the little guy cause the market is much deeper.
    YOu know how much money was roughly needed for the drop around Easter weekend? Probably only $5-10MM considering how thin liquidity was.
    You know how much capital desks have, and im talking even forget the leverage? Upwards of $50MM, and thats 50MM to each individual desk (i.e. not all FICC and forget equities), depending on the performance of the traders.

    But ya do your btfsyfi as you give me and the big banks all the money in the world.

  34. Malcolm, told you what 2-3 weeks ago NOT to go long corn? Keep sucking Mike's d!ck. My puts have made a great deal of fiat. How have you been doin'?

  35. SLV isn't silver, moron. You "old time" traders still haven't learned that. Hilarious.

    If you understood the difference between paper any physical, you would know that owning SLV puts is GOOD, being short COMEX silver against physical silver is GOOD, but that owning any type of options on COMEX silver is BAD. You think that shit is all the same. And yet you can't understand why the price between all these silver products is different.

    The concept of "risk premium" never occurred to you, apparently. That's right, it ain't just for bonds. It applies to the prices of all things that carry risk, and in this environment, counterparty risk towers above all others.

    But a bullshit trader probably wouldn't understand that. You just charge headlong into oblivion, with no idea what is going on in the world around you. So sad :(

  36. Well, M, I already know how your calls/longs are doing. Sorry for you.

  37. HEAD....I put a post a week ago or so showing that according to the COT REPORT during the time when silver went from $39 to $46 the commercials actually liquidated 11,300 short contracts. This proves it was not the SPEC LONGS that were pushing the price higher...but SHORT COVERING by commercials.

    When silver fell the following week from a high of $49 to $41 the commericals only liquidated a lousy 5,000 contracts.

    Head...if you think the US DOLLAR FIAT EXPERIMENT will go on for much longer....good luck trading PAPER. I realize traders will trade paper until the day the Devil comes and rips their heart out when the dollar collapses. That's the nature of traders and brokers who drink and do lines of coke to make it through the next day.

    So go ahead and BRAG about shorting silver at $42 as most of the braindead analysts were pushing the same thing.


    1913 GOLD = $20.64
    2011 GOLD HIGH = $1563.20

    $20.64 / $1563.20 = -98.7% LOSS IN DOLLAR PURCHASING POWER

    1913 SILVER = $0.58
    2011 SILVER HIGH = $48.42

    $0.58 / $48.42 = -98.8% LOSS IN DOLLAR PURCHASING POWER

    SO you can see....SILVER was really not OVERPRICED in APRIL 2011 when we consider it is a MONETARY METAL. But, traders who look at silly short term charts that are painted by the big bullion banks believe that silver as OVERPRICE due to technicals. Technicals are worthless today as the whole market is manipulated.

    Good grief

  38. Head: "You jokers claiming COMEX will go bust in July are the same ones that were supposed to take out JPM in 11Q1, and then 11Q2, and now suddenly stop talking about JPM and are foolishly obsessed with the COMEX.

    Ill be the one asking you guys in July what your next target is. Probably, nothing."

    Why dont you put your fat fucking ass on the line and tell us what you think, step by step, what will happen WITH target prices if you are so fucking clever? Go nuts, I'll right it down and save it for a special day.

  39. Dan,

    As Robby Noel would say, and most vets would agree, just use the "patience is a virtue" homily and don't die with every fluctuation.

    I am 80% in with gold (20% silver) and it went down $50 the last two days and I honestly wanted the Mavericks to win the NBA more than
    -50 bugged me, and I'm not even that big of a Dallas fan.

    It's the turtle in the race that will win, faint of heart, panicky types hyperventilate & sell at the change of wind.

    FWIW, gold was "smacked down" much worse two months ago than this last 48-hour drop from Wednesday.

    Shit happens, roll with it and relax--try not even checking the metal prices for a week and see if you life changes. It won't.

    GL :)

  40. @ Colin

    Thanks. Good perspective. Just keeping getting pushed into margin calls due to my leverage. Lesson learned. What works in Jan, Feb, March and April may not work in May, June and July.

  41. Hey, Ledbedder

    No worries man, my other puts are making money.

    Not to be nasty, or arrogant or even self-righteous but the long term trend is up for corn.

    It's only a bad trade if you lose money, I havent lost anything :).

    But I appreciate the warning but the not the attitude :).


  42. I'll take a stab at the week ending August 5th with a low print of $1440.69. Unless the wheels come off again. Silver is just too damn hard to predict. Best to just follow gold's lead.

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  44. @Malcolm: agree with you AND Mike, long term corn is UP! Sorry about the attitude. Knew corn was going down weeks ago. Tried to help, brother, but I don't blame you, you don't know me from the next stranger. Would have taken me with a grain of salt too. Do you know about 38.2,50 and 61.8?

  45. Led, honestly I no idea. But please extrapolate?

  46. Yes Ledbedder, please explain. I'm interested.

  47. @malcolm and @paidingold. Those numbers are Fibonacci retracements. Gonna keep this short as possible, because my post could get too long. OK. Let's look at Dec. Corn (CZ11). The 52 week low is 382.5 the 52 week high is 722.75 Because of other technicals I use, I believe 722.75 is the high for now. So, how much will corn pullback? This is where the retracements come in. So, you subtract the low from the high (722.75-382.5=340.25). Now, using the 3 percentages. You would multiply 340.25 x .382 (38.2%) which is 129.98. Since 722.75 is the high, you'd subtract 129.98 from 722.75, which is 592.77 That is the first target I expect Dec. corn to pull back to. Now, 50% will blow your mind. That is level most markets go to. (whether it is up or down). So, when Dec. corn hits 552.63 (or damn close), Mike and I will finally be on the same page and I will be looking for other technicals to go long. This is a very short explanation. And maybe I didn't explain it clearly (hope I did). Both of you do this, so you start to believe in this. Find charts that have obviously either pulled back or rallied. Use the 52 week (1 year) high and low and calculate these levels. Look at how many charts gravitate to that 50% level. Remember, we don't need to call the tops or bottoms, just take a nice chunk out of the middle. This works for futures or stocks. I'll find a chart for you to look at and break it down.

  48. Stock example: pull up CDE. Again, using other technicals, on around 4/13/11, CDE was showing signs of breaking down. So, the 52 week high was 37.59 and the 52 week low was 14.02. Take 37.59-14.02=23.57. 23.57 x .382=9 23.57 x .5=11.79 23.57 x .618=14.57

    Here are/were the targets=
    50%= 25.81
    61.8 23.02

    Now, so far, CDE has had an intraday low of 22.41!! Good enough for me!! Actually when anything hits the 50%, I put in fairly tight stops to protect profits.

  49. So, you 2 are probably saying: "if this is common knowledge, then how does it work?" Just does. All I can tell you is do this to many, many charts and you will start to believe. Good luck.

  50. When I find the book (very short), that breaks this down very simply, I'll post it. Everyone should buy it. I'll look for a chart to show you the long side of these retracements.

  51. Dan, you said, "4) How long all this BS is gonna last?? When are metals finally gonna go?"

    It's going to stop when you people realize that you need to clean out all the damn coin shops, all 6,000 of them of their gold and silver. Make it to where coin shops are demanding over 70% of ANNUAL MINING PRODUCTION for minting of retail bars.

    So, please quit bitching and get after it. I've done as much as I can afford in the last 6 years, and I'm waiting to see what happens after QEII ends. The past week proves to me at this time that there is no "flight to safety." It is STILL flight to liquidity, not safety. Who do these pundits think they are to say that the investing public has finally woken up and learned the centuries-old lessons of Indian gold buyers and Chinese silver buyers? What the Indians and Chinese know is completely not part of modern American culture. It took me over 20 years of fucking up to figure it out. How would they learn it overnight?


  52. FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I have heard that mentioned before but it wasn't described in detail!

    So, Led how do you target a stock or future?


  53. Malcolm: I am a futures guy. Only have to watch 30 things +/-. Too many stocks.

  54. Malcolm: found the book that will change your life. it is called The Trading Rule That Can Make you Rich by Edward D. Dobson It is 62 (not a typo) pages long. Let me know when you finished reading it.

  55. Led, you have redeemed yourself! :)

    Much thanks

    Currently I subscribe to Roger Weigan Trader Tracks. I have much more interest in commodities and future as opposed to stocks.

    The funny thing is that Bob Chapman mentioned the 9 and 6 technique. Yesterday on discount hold and silver trading.

  56. Ledbedder,

    Thank you for that explanation, you've taught me something very valuable as I've just started "trading" in May.

    I have plenty of homework, working what you wrote up there, on the companies I've had my eye on and own at the moment.

    I will also pick up that book, although, if you would let me borrow yours, I'd be more than happy to compensate you! (It's $25 on Amazon! WTF!)

    AND JUST TO ALL THE SILVER PHYZZ HEADS OUT THERE!!! junk silver is .19 over spot. I've had successful 10k+ orders with them and I've had no problems.

    I regret buying bars with them when they had that junk in the open at such a great price already!

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