I agree with Peter (as usual) and I think he's right that the line of support is somewhere around $40 for silver. Remember, it tends to overshoot, so $39.50 is nothing to panic about. I think this will be our last chance to buy a significant dip before June-July.
This is just my opinion, but the reason I say June-July is because the Ben Bernanke isn't going to immediately pursue QE3 on July 1, 2011 (QE2 expires June 30, 2011). That being said, I think we'll see the markets tank and people sell everything like in 2008. However, I don't think silver and gold are going to take the hit they did in 2008 because this time around the U.S. dollar is even in worse shape than it was 3 years ago. So any good trader should turn to the precious metals very shortly after SHTF.
@SGS... I saw that and was rather satisfied. I think with what SPROTT is doing is helping these JR's... Man, let's just get through this hell hole and hang out
Exactly! Dollar wont die, it just MULTIPLIES! hahaha.
Regarding miners, gold and silver are priced at what they were two weeks ago, which was their 30 year highs. Q1 financials for miners are going to be mega-awesome. Miners are going to presumably keep producing at these $1500+ and $39+ levels. Miners PEs are going to be miniscule. Miners remain THE MOST undervalued asset class going.
What would you trade instead? GLD and SLV farces? COMEX futures and options on their corrupt exchange? APPL and Netflix?
Get miners and if it so happens they dont double it a month, well, you'll just have to suck it up, and wait a quarter.
Could someone explain to me what the long's options are on a future's contract when margin goes up and they can't meet the increase in the margin? How long do they have to meet margin? Can they sell their long to someone else who can meet margin? If they can't meet margin is contract cancelled and previously ponied up margin refunded? I'm not in futures, just trying to understand the process and why margin hikes kill the price.
That’s what happens in markets that fluctuate $10,000-$15,000+ in one day’s trading. Oil, cotton and wheat don’t come close to that kind of volatility. It makes sense…companies and the exchange just want the money in the customer’s account. They shouldn’t be trading if they can’t meet full margin requirements. Leverage works both ways, and when markets are as volatile as silver has been of late, you never know what’s going to happen.
"If you see gold going up, chances are Bernanke is giving a speech somewhere!"
The COMEX enforces margin requirements in specific dollar amounts per contract, not by percentage of price. This means that they have to manually adjust their margin requirements whenever contract prices jump significantly. If you can't immediately meet the new margin requirements, the Comex will sell your position at the "current" market rate, which, depending on the volume, will force silver future prices down, because you instantly introduce a large group of "sellers" that will sell at any price.
This is the way I understand it. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
SGS, I find your blog to be invaluable. As for the detractors, the fact that they come here and post only verifies that you're the real deal and a threat to their agenda. Their presence here is nothing more than a compliment to you!
Of course, if the Comex raises their margins, you may choose to let them liquidate your contracts even if you can (easily) afford to cover the new margins, since you are almost guranteed to lose money on your position.
Thanks TL, just trying to understand how this margin thing works. What happens when they liquidate your position? Do you get part of your original margin you posted back?
@OC, I would think so. It's still your account, and you may even be "up" a few thousand bucks. You just may not have the available cadh to cover the new margins.
I imagine it would be like your mortgage company asking you for more collateral if your home value fell suddenly. I'm not sure if that has ever happened, but I wouldn't be suprised if the housing market loses all support from Freddie and Fannie.
Holy shit, they raised margins yet again hugely, for fuck's sake this is destroying already depressed miners. People are being ruined here than never even saw a silver contract. Bastards. Where's the fucking guillotines?
Well, this is what happens when no one knows how the financial system works. These retards do whatever the hell they want and we just get acclimatised to getting raped.
I ask the question again, if you can write the rules of the game then why wouldn't you skew them in your favor? The system is doing exactly what it is supposed to. Give it's owners absolute power.
"Well, this is what happens when no one knows how the financial system works. These retards do whatever the hell they want and we just get acclimatised to getting raped."
I have to agree. I run into many that don't know and don't care because they don't think it really affects them (until gas breaks $4/gallon).
Ok i know sfa on economics. Watching Schiffs vid....China is forced to take US paper, rather than prioritising internal consumption, as all trade is in dollars. They can't buy any of the resources they need other than through the dollar. When the Yuan, or poss Asian EURO, becomes a reserve currency their internal consumption would no doubt spike. This would spell serious inflation for us in the West and an even greater material down grade in our standard of living. yes? no?
All three events are more evidence that the world is moving away from the U.S. dollar standard. Mexico is one of several large Central Banks buying significant amounts of gold with their dollar reserves and, I believe, is the first western CB to do so. This is very bad news for anyone out there who does not understand the risks of holding their wealth in U.S. dollars. One day many millionaires in this country will wake up to find that their millions sitting in banks and brokerages will be of no value to anyone except as fuel for heat
just got back from local coin shop in seattle... dealer is honest and fair, told me MANY people selling, few buying ... he has eagles +4, rounds +1.50 ... a week ago in frenzy he could not keep eagles in and sold +7, and like I said he is very fair guy but could not find them and was paying +4 over
Weather Unit....You are a piece of TRASH. You remind me of George SOROS, the JEW who turned in his own fellow JEWS to the NAZIS during WW2 to get ahead.
You belong in that group of people.
SGS...looks like the number 4 & 5 Margin hikes are due to the fact that the open interest is not declining as the CME wishes.
MAY 3 Open Interest = 130,567 MAY 4 Open Interest = 131,907
Thats an addition of 1,300+ contracts. Kind of think the CME GROUP might be in PANIC mode as Tyler states at ZH.
Blocking: It won't let me post the Html code, is there another email for you?
or
Everyone can go here at this link and log him as spamming, harassing, hate or violence and they will shut that person down: http://www.google.com/support/blogger/bin/request.py?hl=en&contact_type=main_tos&blog_ID=3458662032196157528&blog_URL=http%3A%2F%2Fsilvergoldsilver.blogspot.com%2F&rd=1
pirst
ReplyDelete@jojo...damn you! hahaha
ReplyDelete@everybody else...LET'S GO RED WINGS!!!
The "titanic example" is one of the best jokes I have heard in my fucking live. He is just so right. God bless him.
ReplyDeletethe dollar just wont die will it
ReplyDeleteI agree with Peter (as usual) and I think he's right that the line of support is somewhere around $40 for silver. Remember, it tends to overshoot, so $39.50 is nothing to panic about. I think this will be our last chance to buy a significant dip before June-July.
ReplyDeleteThis is just my opinion, but the reason I say June-July is because the Ben Bernanke isn't going to immediately pursue QE3 on July 1, 2011 (QE2 expires June 30, 2011). That being said, I think we'll see the markets tank and people sell everything like in 2008. However, I don't think silver and gold are going to take the hit they did in 2008 because this time around the U.S. dollar is even in worse shape than it was 3 years ago. So any good trader should turn to the precious metals very shortly after SHTF.
Thoughts? Am I way off here?
not to gloat, but Tinka, Hinterland and Fire River are ALL green today...feels good they didnt get swept away with this paper sell off...
ReplyDeleteThink the dollar needs to roll, which may not be quite yet. I'm better once more bounced before we break 72, and a downdraft in silver.
ReplyDelete@SGS... I saw that and was rather satisfied. I think with what SPROTT is doing is helping these JR's... Man, let's just get through this hell hole and hang out
ReplyDeletebig report out this friday so hopefully we can recoup some of our losses this week and get through May without too much pain
ReplyDeleteExactly! Dollar wont die, it just MULTIPLIES! hahaha.
ReplyDeleteRegarding miners, gold and silver are priced at what they were two weeks ago, which was their 30 year highs.
Q1 financials for miners are going to be mega-awesome.
Miners are going to presumably keep producing at these $1500+ and $39+ levels.
Miners PEs are going to be miniscule.
Miners remain THE MOST undervalued asset class going.
What would you trade instead?
GLD and SLV farces?
COMEX futures and options on their corrupt exchange?
APPL and Netflix?
Get miners and if it so happens they dont double it a month, well, you'll just have to suck it up, and wait a quarter.
Today was epic. Watching the performance of the miners and listening to the nervous wrecks on this blog was just epic.
ReplyDeleteIt was like a thriller, drama and tragedy hybrid.
I love the Titanic thing, it worked well with the RT chick!
Could someone explain to me what the long's options are on a future's contract when margin goes up and they can't meet the increase in the margin? How long do they have to meet margin? Can they sell their long to someone else who can meet margin? If they can't meet margin is contract cancelled and previously ponied up margin refunded? I'm not in futures, just trying to understand the process and why margin hikes kill the price.
ReplyDeletehere is what my broker explained to me....
ReplyDeleteThat’s what happens in markets that fluctuate $10,000-$15,000+ in one day’s trading. Oil, cotton and wheat don’t come close to that kind of volatility. It makes sense…companies and the exchange just want the money in the customer’s account. They shouldn’t be trading if they can’t meet full margin requirements. Leverage works both ways, and when markets are as volatile as silver has been of late, you never know what’s going to happen.
"If you see gold going up, chances are Bernanke is giving a speech somewhere!"
ReplyDeleteThe COMEX enforces margin requirements in specific dollar amounts per contract, not by percentage of price. This means that they have to manually adjust their margin requirements whenever contract prices jump significantly. If you can't immediately meet the new margin requirements, the Comex will sell your position at the "current" market rate, which, depending on the volume, will force silver future prices down, because you instantly introduce a large group of "sellers" that will sell at any price.
This is the way I understand it. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
I think the News Unit's Eternal Soul was offended. Poor guy.
ReplyDeleteLighten up Newsquibble we're all in this together!
Just picked up another 500 oz @ $42.
ReplyDeleteSGS, I find your blog to be invaluable. As for the detractors, the fact that they come here and post only verifies that you're the real deal and a threat to their agenda. Their presence here is nothing more than a compliment to you!
Keep it up.
Of course, if the Comex raises their margins, you may choose to let them liquidate your contracts even if you can (easily) afford to cover the new margins, since you are almost guranteed to lose money on your position.
ReplyDeleteThoughts?
Thanks TL, just trying to understand how this margin thing works. What happens when they liquidate your position? Do you get part of your original margin you posted back?
ReplyDeleteThis video isn't great, but at least the guy explains what buying on a margin is:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es_w67eJ-qA
@OC, I would think so. It's still your account, and you may even be "up" a few thousand bucks. You just may not have the available cadh to cover the new margins.
ReplyDeleteI imagine it would be like your mortgage company asking you for more collateral if your home value fell suddenly. I'm not sure if that has ever happened, but I wouldn't be suprised if the housing market loses all support from Freddie and Fannie.
How about we flood the CFTC with their fraud and manipulation statements until they get SICK of reading them?!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cftc.gov/ConsumerProtection/RedressReparations/InformationReportingForm/index.htm
Still stabilizing around $39? What's the consensus?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-hikes-silver-margins-17-4th-hike-8-trading-days
Yep, should go back to 50 later this Summer.
ReplyDeleteok..this is going to 30.. note the zerohedge article from above and also this http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904523
ReplyDeleteHoly shit, they raised margins yet again hugely, for fuck's sake this is destroying already depressed miners. People are being ruined here than never even saw a silver contract. Bastards. Where's the fucking guillotines?
ReplyDeleteWell, this is what happens when no one knows how the financial system works. These retards do whatever the hell they want and we just get acclimatised to getting raped.
ReplyDeleteI ask the question again, if you can write the rules of the game then why wouldn't you skew them in your favor? The system is doing exactly what it is supposed to. Give it's owners absolute power.
Still no conspiracy?
"Well, this is what happens when no one knows how the financial system works. These retards do whatever the hell they want and we just get acclimatised to getting raped."
ReplyDeleteI have to agree. I run into many that don't know and don't care because they don't think it really affects them (until gas breaks $4/gallon).
Ok i know sfa on economics. Watching Schiffs vid....China is forced to take US paper, rather than prioritising internal consumption, as all trade is in dollars. They can't buy any of the resources they need other than through the dollar. When the Yuan, or poss Asian EURO, becomes a reserve currency their internal consumption would no doubt spike. This would spell serious inflation for us in the West and an even greater material down grade in our standard of living. yes? no?
ReplyDeletei keep a sock on each of my cocks so its a fairly simple manoeuvre for me
ReplyDeleteAll three events are more evidence that the world is moving away from the U.S. dollar standard. Mexico is one of several large Central Banks buying significant amounts of gold with their dollar reserves and, I believe, is the first western CB to do so. This is very bad news for anyone out there who does not understand the risks of holding their wealth in U.S. dollars. One day many millionaires in this country will wake up to find that their millions sitting in banks and brokerages will be of no value to anyone except as fuel for heat
ReplyDeletejust got back from local coin shop in seattle... dealer is honest and fair, told me MANY people selling, few buying ... he has eagles +4, rounds +1.50 ... a week ago in frenzy he could not keep eagles in and sold +7, and like I said he is very fair guy but could not find them and was paying +4 over
ReplyDeleteThere were 2 margin hikes today! One scheduled effective 4 May 2011 and the second 9 May 2011.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-parabolic-rise-cme-silver-margin-hikes
CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes
Hey SGS, people, what do you think about GDXJ?
ReplyDeleteIt is looking very possible that the CRIMEX is dry.
ReplyDeleteIf you have a faint hear or weak bowels, you should have sold ages ago. For those of you still standing ... INCOMING.
Like @SGS said, the default has probably already happened.
I'm off to get a beer.
Night all!
What a day, some serious pissed off comments on ZERO HEDGE today.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Weather Unit...I am beginning to wonder if you are a total sociopath....SGS...I thought he was banned.
I dare any of you FIGHT CLUB fuckers to look me up for a visit. I dare you!
ReplyDeleteWeather Unit: Why are you posting here? You had my name beside a guillotine.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know how to ban usernames on blogger?
If so shoot me the direction, this guy just doesnt get it.
Weather Unit....You are a piece of TRASH. You remind me of George SOROS, the JEW who turned in his own fellow JEWS to the NAZIS during WW2 to get ahead.
ReplyDeleteYou belong in that group of people.
SGS...looks like the number 4 & 5 Margin hikes are due to the fact that the open interest is not declining as the CME wishes.
MAY 3 Open Interest = 130,567
MAY 4 Open Interest = 131,907
Thats an addition of 1,300+ contracts. Kind of think the CME GROUP might be in PANIC mode as Tyler states at ZH.
WEATHER BALLOON,
ReplyDeletesorry to be off topic, but for a self proclaimed god squader you are biggest hypocrite I have ever seen, and this from an atheist.
Damn... what a fucking douche that guy above me is...
ReplyDeleteAnyways....thats not why im posting here...
SGS- Congrats to the 40,000 YouTube views in one day for "Part 6: The Paper Silver Manipulation Game at all time Highs".
Blocking: It won't let me post the Html code, is there another email for you?
ReplyDeleteor
Everyone can go here at this link and log him as spamming, harassing, hate or violence and they will shut that person down: http://www.google.com/support/blogger/bin/request.py?hl=en&contact_type=main_tos&blog_ID=3458662032196157528&blog_URL=http%3A%2F%2Fsilvergoldsilver.blogspot.com%2F&rd=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtNEDkURnBE
ReplyDeletechapman from today on ONE RADIO NETWORK
I will make it simple: Copy this weather unit blog here:
ReplyDeleteClick this link: http://theweatherunit.blogspot.com/
Now click this Click Here and check the box that applies and click continue:
Then it will ask for url: right click and paste and then submit.
Schiff/Paul 2012.
ReplyDeleteI'd vote for this ticket.
@IslandStyle
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see that ticket! I'd also love to see Schiff smoke Biden in a debate!