Thursday, May 5, 2011

Hedge Fund Manager Email to me...

"low $30 range should be fair value - if the historical gold to silver ratio of around 50x holds (and I think it should) $1500 gold implies $30 on silver so there could be another $6 on the downside to the commodity - silver stocks seem to be discounting around a $32 silver price already so hold off for a bit more"

Remember another margin hike on Monday 9th! Sweetness.

57 comments:

  1. This is going way down to 25 dollars or 20 euros. Damn me for not shorting early enough, I got hit. :/

    ReplyDelete
  2. ya I dont think $25. I'll take $32's. Physical wont be available at $25.

    ReplyDelete
  3. so the dollar remains the the reserve of the world! doesn't surprise me... the Empire rules all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That huge butterfly option play that is on that pays maximum at $36 may stabilize the market around here....whoever it is has made a boat load of fiat so far....starts to lose same fiat quickly below 36...

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm wondering if the sell of will continue in asia or if they will buy?
    Probably sell.
    A-Colin

    ReplyDelete
  6. Since the Monday margin hike is already known, it's probably already priced in, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Good chance the bottom is in, check some miners like AG which were moving up as silver was dropping below 36. GDX holding support at 200 day MA is also very bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  8. How does this Hedge fund manager's advice tie into the other PM big boys who were preparing to swoop in on Friday?

    Dunno how many bullion dealers will be around if it keeps dropping like this. I mean these guys bought the stuff in the high 40s and even though they are hedged, most of them can't deal with a huge spread like within such a short span of time. So the physical market will only get tighter because you won't have too many dealers left.

    ReplyDelete
  9. have held a miner stock for a while. usually 2500 ask and 2500 bid. Today 160,000 bid 2,500 ask
    Have never seen this with this stock.....kind of new but may this be a sign of plowing into miners

    ReplyDelete
  10. SGS,
    Did you see Eric Jansen's writeup on his 4/29 call to sell all silver? He's still holding gold, but says Ag going to ~20 usd and he's no weak hand. Opinion?

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/19184-Catch-a-falling-silver-knife-Notes-on-EJ-s-April-29-silver-sell-call?p=196366#post196366

    ReplyDelete
  11. @Shantanu B.
    It wouldn't surprise me if we see some of the small dealers "go on vacation" or otherwise shut their doors for a few days while they try to wait this out.

    ReplyDelete
  12. there is a good article by casey research on when Silver might stop going down

    http://seculartrends.blogspot.com/2011/05/when-will-silver-stop-going-down.html

    ReplyDelete
  13. @SGS personally, I don't think it's accurate to peg the price of silver to gold. Though 50:1 is a historical ration, I do not believe it is indicative of the value of silver.

    $32 maybe, $25 maybe. The reason no one can predict the bottom confidently is because the changes we are witnessing today are not due to market "fundamentals".

    It is very difficult to predict human behavior. Whoever is fixing the price has absolutely no clue what they are doing.

    ReplyDelete
  14. "rising prices are a narcotic" - Warren Buffett. he had that right, we got skinned because we assumed it was end game and underestimated the amount of speculative leverage in the game.

    looking back at ZH and Maloney, Maloney especially, he's a smart guy and been mostly dead on. here's how it will likely play out (I use the word likely because there are far too many x-factors in life). end of QE2 is a major deflationary force in the economy, the economy and market goes to shit, whereby QE3 is created out of necessity. rinse and repeat. so those of you with 401k's and IRA's, I'd buckle up your seatbelts, this flight could get bumpy.

    ReplyDelete
  15. @ yousif " The reason no one can predict the bottom confidently is because the changes we are witnessing today are not due to market "fundamentals".

    bingo! you are right... makes a small time investor like myself so frustrated, but i have time. what else am I going to do with my $? invest in learning how to farm? I was hoping for that to be my next move after silver got to $70-100! I got time though!

    ReplyDelete
  16. we are up 175%, and only down 25%, who cares. I'll be buying phyzz inbetween $30-35, take it to $20, and the world should stop rotating

    ReplyDelete
  17. @Jon: Eric Jansen is just one of the many analysts who have chimed in on this subject. We also have SGS, Jesse, Schiff, Tyler, SGT, Sinclair, Ben Davies, Sprott, Bix Weir, Turd, etc. who have all contributed on this subject. You need to arrive at an holistic conclusion after taking into account everyone's opinions and also evaluating the ground realities (that led to the rise in PMs in the first place). For e.g., the uncontrolled spending, deficit, debt ceiling hikes, etc. We are in a text-book case of an empire unraveling as described by Niall Ferguson.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Nice post by Minyanville on Silver Selloff

    http://seculartrends.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver-will-zig-zag-to-hundred.html

    ReplyDelete
  19. @Jon How can I reproduce Eric Jansen's line curve? Why didn't he produce one for gold so that we can compare. That would make sense since he used the silver to gold ratio to make the call.

    Has anyone read the reasons that compelled him to issue the sell order?

    No offense and absolutely no disrespect meant here but your link is a very weak argument for selling silver. In fact, I fail to see the significance of him not issuing a sell order for 10 years.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I know its just half way through but it looks like its stabilized.
    They'll fuckn kill it after hours again though.
    Yeah, I shit my fucking pants

    A-Colin

    ReplyDelete
  21. Funny how sentiment can change on a dime. Does anyone think this crash would have occurred had the various entities not jacked up margins rapidly and in a fashion designed to invoke fear and panic about "yet another margin hike?" I think not. It needed a sharp pullback or a decent consolidation through time but a crash? In a few short days people went from lining up all the myriad reasons silver should be trading at $150 to talking about how something has changed and it's going to $20. It's amazing to watch, though not very easy to profit from.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Well this zig has been more of a zig than I have seen before. 1/3 wiped out with out 1 zag?

    ReplyDelete
  23. For the three years that I have been buying silver, all the experts (Schiff, SGS, MK, Harvey, Turd, etc) have all said the historical silver/gold ratio is 16 to 1. Now all of a sudden, today, it is 50 to 1? WTF?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Guys, I am not sure if it will make you feel better to know that some people who long EURO could be wiped out today alone. Euro dropped 1.6% and 2% vs USD and YEN respectively. With 50:1 leverage, the lost can be 100%. The drop in silver is nothing in comparison.

    "Someone" is really trying to PUSH USD and YEN. Everyone else suffers regardless their fundamental is sound or not.

    Anyway, buy physical silver and gold.

    Signing off.....

    ReplyDelete
  25. Garry,
    I believe that was a zig.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Just noticed the May (YI) silver contract has a $1.70 premium to the July contract. It seems to me the big boys are stepping in here to take delivery at a discount

    ReplyDelete
  27. Wow. 4 days of carnage and everyone forgot silver was $50 on Saturday....we will surpass this level again soon enough, like I said before, it may bot be tomorow. I may start picking away at oct 22 calls, but its premature...rather wait for monday shit show #3.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hard bounce off $36.50. If we close above $36, I reload.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SILVER LEASE RATES UP AGAIN....BACKWARDATION now at $1.40

    The silver lease rates are heading up to their highs of the middle of FEB. Looks like physical tightening is going into FULL GEAR.

    I don't think we will have a continuation of a selloff on MONDAY. The 5th margin hike was announced yesterday so it is BAKED IN THE CAKE as the morons on CNBC say. I rather think it may actually stabilize monday.

    CNBC...says GOLD and SILVER BUBBLE POPPING TODAY...what a bunch of CLOWNS

    ReplyDelete
  30. Holy fudge everything is dropping like a rock!!

    ReplyDelete
  31. It's all about their time line, Silver shot past this line. There has always been that statement, If you can't beat em join em. Now I do not consider joining them, though working just a little with em may not hurt at all.
    The dollar is dying, slowly yes, and the middle east manipulated worse than Silver.
    Watching crude fall like Silver, and brent crude like Gold, would you think devaluing the east's oil supply, would also lessen the amount of wealth going to the Arab's. As the supply dries up, and shortly from now, the Dollar will plunge again. But, by then, with in 40 - 90 days, America will have a tougher time securing crude. This will allow further advancements in drilling, and producing oil in the USA.
    For the past few months, with gaining speed K C ARAB (Barack) has certainly been talking the at home oil future. To become non dependent
    on over seas oil.
    As the shuffle takes place, silver will hit $50.00 p/oz 60-90 days?
    And next year 2012 as the year goes on... Oil Sweet Crude $150.00 _?% pumped and produced in the USA, a good amount for sure. Brent Oil $190.00 +
    The Dollar then, what dollar, .20 cents.....

    So... Keep one eye on Silver, the Other on Gold

    And it's the Phyzzz that takes the Prize..

    ReplyDelete
  32. What the @#$% does a hedgefund manager know about silver's 'fair value' and a reasonable gold:silver ratio?
    Miners holding up nicely....Next rally, and it is coming, will take them over the rainbow

    ReplyDelete
  33. Ok, a little logic here:
    As with usual corrections, it will probably go up a bit from $36 during the night, but then settle down even more tomorrow (people generally dont wanna be "in" during weekends.

    Thus it will hopefully start a steady climb monday morning _AFTER_ suspicious Chindustralia has closed that is. THATS when you should hit it with your best shot!

    Coincides with RSI planing out as well.

    My guess BTFD^3 @ $32.5

    ReplyDelete
  34. People, get into the habit of checking the silver price fix every day:

    http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=46&title=current_statistics

    Those in charge of setting it are truly clueless.

    @SGS OT, I remember you mentioned them a while back, are the silver Buffaloes nice? I'm thinking of getting my paws on some today.

    ReplyDelete
  35. That $35 call a few weeks back was in the know then!

    We've all got to remember, it's the ounces that matter. When JPM have covered enough shorts, they'll let the elastic band go and we'll all wonder what the fuck happened. The schills that ducked out will be chasing a train that's left the station. I love to mix metaphors. BT(Big)FD

    Never forgetting SGS has been a gold (natch) mine of info.
    Cheers dude as always.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Get this. CME did us a favour.
    It needed to correct and now it has.
    Sideways for a couple of months then we'll be up up and away again.

    AColin

    ReplyDelete
  37. Remember, the spot prices you are seeing are the paper prices, go to ebay and see silver eagles still selling for over $900 a roll!

    ReplyDelete
  38. don't think it's over. they'd be jerkoffs not to finish off all they could now. wouldn't surprise me if they wacked everyone again on sunday nite just for respect and teach any wiseguys who bought back in a lesson.(their thinking, not mine)george sorros had a lot to do with that planned dump. just because that prick cocksucker is still living should make us want to hold tougher. i lost a few bucks on margin, went to fully paid ,and will wait till doomsday before i sell any phyzz.

    ReplyDelete
  39. sgs,

    you keep saying you got in on a certain physical floor, say 10.15.20 etc ... many of us did, but dont forget a lot of newbies came to your site, and others, at much diff stages, so they are getting their asses handed to them right now and I am sure they even donated to you... not giving you shit, just reminding you that the come-latelies are terrified and have lost a lot of money that they have to explain to the Misses etc...

    ReplyDelete
  40. One aspect I don't understand: aren't the big guys going to have to sell silver at 25 when just a couple of weeks ago they were begging us to sell ours? Won't they be selling us silver they bought at nearly 50 to cover their shortages? Wouldn't it be human nature for them to let the price go skyward after they've refilled their coffers? And this time when it goes up won't we be with them instead of against them? I don't care about wars and fighting and all that crap I'm here to make money.

    ReplyDelete
  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  42. james,

    remember too that many of those ebay bids can be from as much as a week ago ... why buy on ebay when online sites and CL and local coin shops have much better prices? ebay people can be inbred

    ReplyDelete
  43. "As I stare into the tele-prompter, I tell you that not only did I END the terror from Osama, as I now hold his head in my hand,......but I ended the terror of the speculators in OIL, Gold, and Silver, as I hold their sack in my other hand.....another squeeze will be had IF you test me!......Be glad I am here to protect you from evil!"

    ReplyDelete
  44. It pretty fucking simple. A raid was planned in AG because the big boys knew about the margin hikes. Weak hands were shaken out.
    POSX (USDX)up only because the EURO got trashed.
    USD still a POS. All fiats still a POS. No financial recovery and suppossed deflation now. Buttfucked Ben has NO choice but to keep QE program to keep economy from tanking. He can't raise interest rates. The Fed is 80% of the buyer market of Treasury bonds. Without the Fed, bond auctions fail or rates go throught the ceiling which Buttfuck Ben can't deal with.
    AG/AU are you hedges against a crippled dollar and all fiat currencies. AG is in backwardation and leased rated are up.
    What the fuck more could you ask for?

    Jesse also has some great commentary on his ideas of the AG situation.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/interesting-theory-on-silver-for.html

    Buy and hold your PHYZZ and the banks will implode by August 1...

    ReplyDelete
  45. Yo
    I hear you, I am a newbie, though of only phyzz... I just convinced my misses to buy well 300 Maples last week, so now, no explaining, why.... I am only glad she never went paper
    Cant seem to locate much of them today, looks my dealer is 2 months back, J&M at least 2 months, Cant access silvergoldbull.com, and e-bay lowest buy now for a Leaf sits at about $50.00 CAD
    1/2 ounce Wolf from J&M is $28.00 rite now.
    I've been buying weekly, I may go in withdraw now.... lol... but really...

    And SGS I think your the shit man,
    No matter what, everybody here is a big boy/gal, and at the end of the day, they all make they're own choices. There are tones of sites/blogs to get advice from. Yours is well put, and is just what is, good as it gets info...
    Service for a buck, and/or even not...
    So, who ever, Don't complain to SGS....

    ReplyDelete
  46. @ Colin, agreed newbies maybe bought above $35 or $40, but if they bought physical, there's no sweating. Just look away and wait a week. You'll then be reminded what a good decision you made, and you'll still be buying at $60, $70, $100. This shit has a long way to go, just ask Bix.

    If you bought SLV as a solid investment, you're a fucktard and no mistake.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hinde Capital 32 page report a must read on Silver correction and where we go from here: Ben Davies Interview with Eric King

    http://seculartrends.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver-corrects-whats-next.html

    ReplyDelete
  48. Wowsa, we're into 34-land. This is turning into one helluva dip. The lil smoky I threw into ZSL is getting a real hard-on.

    ReplyDelete
  49. fwiw,

    If on the level, both Chapman and Maloney told listeners they bought more silver over last weekend, so even the gurus' sagacity can be purblind, unless they are actually Matrix shills (gawd, nothing would shock me these days)

    ReplyDelete
  50. yeh....
    funny, that thought of manipulative suggestiveness from them over the weekend also jagged inside my brains, as well as other intuitive fields I muster... so, so correct,
    Certainly many individuals are in the know, and are also instrumental in what ever change needed, and when...

    ReplyDelete
  51. Soros supposedly sold his shares (however many those were) two weeks ago... But I have been looking into so many gov lies for so long, using the MSM to jerk the chattel around is always #1 in my mind... So who's to say Keiser's "break the Morg" by buying one silver eagle wasn't all a psyop? ... we will soon see, by the summer it should wash out; but then I suppose they will go on to another prank no one could presage.

    I have silver and gold and diff prices (gold 3 years ago, tho down 110 this week) and silver at 20% of gold holdings, but I have to shake my head and laugh at the Masters' ability to manipulate ... this latest string pull will chase many people away.

    I was in coin shop yest for only a blink and I saw the pie eyed look in several customers expressions as the brought boxes in to sell; are the sheep selling at wrong time, or just panicking at decent window to get some profits or loss?

    who knows until the summer swelter arrives.

    ReplyDelete
  52. chapman on now... saying crooks are killing us etc ... oh well, thanks Bob haha

    http://www.americanfreedomradio.com/listen_live.html

    ReplyDelete
  53. Silver is still up over 4 fold from the 2008 panic lows in the $8's people. We'll look back on the low $30's in another 2-3 years from $150 with the same perspective. Quit freaking out and BTFD!

    www.silverdoctors.com

    ReplyDelete
  54. I sold my position (over 500 ounces with a profit) at 39.38( I came in at $29) I plan to get back in at the bottom. Don't worry Chris all of us are like alligators lurking ready to spring at the first sign of an upturn. I got 125,000 Chinese Yuan ready to blow. Hoping for 29 dollars somewhere around there on Tuesday(Shanghai Time)

    ReplyDelete
  55. If my local bullion exchange has any Maple Leafs or 10oz bars on Monday I'm in there.

    Fucking hilarious seeing some people here on full TILT.

    You play with paper against criminal who make the rules, this is the result of the chances one takes. Hold physical and it's just a short term adjustment denominated in dying paper currency.

    Keep the faith people and go and buy some more metal FFS!

    ReplyDelete