Monday, May 9, 2011

Crude margin hike, oh yeah, this should be fun this week!


-Volume today was 139,589, and guess what? We had a green day, how fucking shocking is that?
-Volume friday was 298,406 (nope thats not a typo)...
-deposits to the dealer ZERO.
- I would like to point out the next figure which was the withdrawal out of the 'Gold vaults' today at the crimex: 282,551. This is strange to me, and should be a huge red flag.

-OI at 129,454...shorts were covering last week, especially Friday.
-Volume today was 96,579 and we went ________! you fill in the blank.
-deposits to dealer ZERO.

More to come later, thanks for answering my questions.


  1. You can sell your option contracts, so if the price goes up, values of call options go up. If the price goes down, values of put options go up.

    I trade SLV in options without EVER owning SLV. I own both puts and calls and look for BIG swings to make me money.

  2. BTW, you aren't trading on margin, so margin hikes don't impact option traders other than how it impacts the price of the stock/ETF.

    I do TD Ameritrade option contracts, 100 shares per contract. The father out the option (call or put), the more they typically cost as they expose more time for risk. In the option market, time is the enemy. I need FAST moving targets, which is why I love SLV. My biggest hope is that SLV is discovered to be a true fraud (and posted as such and the value goes to 0) in which case my very low 20$ strike price insurance bets make me win big.

  3. And in other news from the real world (disconnected from the crimex paper ponzi), at the current run rate, the US Mint is on track to sell around 4.5M ASEs this month (which would be the highest since Jan 2011).

    Looks like the 'fix' might have made the problem much more dire. Somebody needs to be held accountable here for letting the Asians soak up precious metals at such bargain prices.

  4. Also the buyer of the option can sell at any time, the seller cannot, they are stuck and have to deliver the underlying stock if the strike price is met and the buyer wants to "exercise the option" You better know what you are doing if you ever sell an option. Much better to buy the option.

  5. PS this applies to the "american option" to be able to sell any time during the contract, there are also European options which are exercised only at the expire date.

  6. K nevermind it was cleared up on a phone call...I have been asking something different...

  7. Eh, you just better have more money to play with. People holding equity positions can increase their earnings with solid contract sales. The folks selling put prices in the twenties for a month out each and every month holding silver are making pretty good coin. Of course, if you do that, and then it tanks to 0, you're out a hefty, hefty amount. It is a safer bet to sell call options that are out of the money on the top side (SLV Call options at 50 in July/October). The bad side is if SLV goes through the roof to more than 50, but then you just have to sell your SLV at 50, but you've already made hefty percentages in SLV if it runs that high. It is a limitation of your gains, but helps you increase earnings in an equity position rising gradually. There are lots, and lots of strategies here...

  8. According to the CFTC, the level of non-speculative net longs in silver is, in the week ending May 3, at the lowest since July 28, 2009.

    Shitbird says "how the fuck can that happen"

  9. So what's the move here? It seems like an obvious buy would be oil puts...I am short on experience and any advice would be taken into consideration. Thanks

  10. SGS, What about your DHS contact at the fight club? Any new info?

  11. I second that Pete. We need a morsel of insider intel. Should we buy more bacon? whiskey? ammo? life preservers? I half jest but I think I have all of these supplies I think that's in the insider code...they have to drop a few hints here and there about what's coming down or face the karmic consequences.

  12. Hmmm...... Anyone else done any test on American Eagles ? Are they really 99.9% silver ?

    There were stories about Tungsten Gold bricks. Why not some "not so perfect" silver coins ?

    Where do US mint find so much silver to mint record breaking number of bullion ? I thought there were a lot of physical shortages and US government hold no silver.

  13. Anatomy of a Futures Manipulation -ZH

    1) Margin Hikes.
    Either using control over the exchange committee system to induce sudden hikes in performance bond requirements, or opportunistically using such hikes. The hikes soften up the market by causing an initial destabilization of accounts of overleveraged long position holders. Some of the big clearing members of NYMEX have enhanced this effect by raising their own requirements higher than the exchange committee, and thereby softening up their own customers more substantially;

    2) High Frequency Trading.
    Using trading “bots” to transiently create thousands and, sometimes, tens of thousands of intra-day short positions, designed to soak up opportunistic buying by better capitalized long side oriented investors. The flooding of the market with this paper supply of imaginary “silver” prevents futures based prices from rising and triggers stop-loss orders among leveraged customers.

    3) Short Covering after 'Running the Stops'. Closing most intra-day positions into the mass of involuntary liquidations. Sometimes, “artillery” is left on the battlefield by the close of the day. This happens when transient short positions cannot be fully unloaded. In other words, the bots are competing with heavy buying from well-capitalized buyers who now want to pay the "bargain" prices created by the bots, and taking over those positions before the bots have the opportunity to buy them back. This shows up as a net increase in the “open interest” in silver, even as the price is falling. That aberrant result is impossible if a bubble were really “bursting”, because we would have run out of such buyers by now.

  14. Oh my...there are some misconceptions out here regarding options. You can buy/sell contracts during market hours. There are no restrictions there regardless of what style options you are trading. You can definitely sell an American or European settled option in the market and buy it back in 5 minutes if you want to. Lets not confuse buying/selling with exercising & assignment. American vs. European style just refers to the exercise/assignment process. American style allows you to exercise at any time, European only allows you to exercise on expiration day.

  15. Ok I just jumped the paper boat while shitting my pants , Good Luck y´all!

    I´ll be waiting at 27, eventually and desperately watching your paperrocket soar.

    What was SGS question, I have a hard time deriving it from your answers :)

  16. Today, I realized that my models for price fluctuations assumed rational human behavior. I've come to the conclusion that the conspirators are anything but rational.

    I'm actively modifying my models, I've added a few new variables;
    Φ : Conspirator Irrationality Index
    Ψ : Collusion Forcing Factor
    β : Artificial Speculation Index

    I'm trying to come up with a more realistic model that takes into account variables which (surprisingly) have a large influence on prices.

    I'm setting Φ to 0.8 as I can see that even SP was used to spread FUD yesterday. Ψ is at 0.65 due to collusion between LBMA and COMEX. β has a value of 0.7 but is weakened by an empirical multiplicative constant as many are beginning to ignore the mainstream media nowadays.

    In summary, bar a cataclysmic irrational conspiracy (5 margin hikes and ridiculous silver price fixes for example), we should have a pretty solid performance again today.

    Please verify any media headlines yourself. I advise getting your information from eyes on the ground (people like you and me) and to seek reliable sources of financial information i.e. sources preferably outside the mainstream media.

    Gook luck everyone!


    Price Fix: 38.40 USD

    Silver, let's get physical!