Saturday, September 17, 2011

Cot Report, FOMC

Good afternoon. We are 48 hrs from launching www.silvergoldsilver.com (I think). I thank all those who have donated to the cause and thank those that are about to donate as well. As the new site moves forward, it will evolve into many spheres. Especially, the forums, in which I am going to extend the topic list to more touchy subjects if people get bored of silver and gold on some days and would like to just vent it out on another subject.

There has been some confusion as of late regarding the VIP tab. The VIP tab will not be functional on launch. That will be for a month down the road, and the information there will be privileged info that will be paid for such as a newsletter, video's, picks, etc. Paying subscribers will gain an edge before its release to the public a few days or weeks later. Were talking a very minor payment if you want to be a part of the VIP such as $5-10 a month, or something along those poverty lines. The money will be used to maintain the site.

If you do not choose to be a part of the VIP, the blog, forums and chat will still be available for free. So no worries. People thought the entire site was pay only, THIS IS NOT THE CASE.
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Cot Report: Tuesday Sept 6th-13th Only, does not include this past Wed-Fri.

Gold:

The Large Specs were caught long earlier and when the chart double topped so to speak they started pitching longs and taking provide to the tune of a massive 13,062 contracts. They also decided to add 2,462 short.

The large commercials did the very opposite: They added 9,351 long and covered 7,895 contracts on the plunge again albeit.

Remember this is as of Tuesday the 13th. So Fridays rally was not included in this, and it seems like someone got squeezed like a sour grape in the last 3 hours of trading.

Silver:

The large specs, again, did the opposite of the commercials: They sold off 597 longs and ADDED 323 short. I am assuming they covered the majority of these on Friday.

The commercials ADDED 1288 long! and Covered 631! Ha! Seems like Fridays late day rally benefited the bankers, and the larger specs got slammed.

For those thinking silver is going to roll over and head back to $12/oz...well, I'm not seeing that in this COT. In fact, being so close to the trend line, I was expecting a massive increase in the commercial shorts. It was the opposite, which tells me, that we are still in a bullish sentiment for BOTH metals. Add in the fact, that the comex deliveries are non existent, is evident of the shortage of commercial grade metal still. They painted the chart, and shorts got killed on Friday.

The week approaching is particularly important as we have a 2 day FOMC meeting, and Thursday is Comex Options expiry. So lets play out some scenarios.

1. The Ben Bernank says some sort of print hint, or print itself or twist, or whatever. The PM's should explode to the upside along with the Bank stocks. Those that have shorted the PM's for options expiry beatdown will be squeezed like lemons, seeds and all. This will pave the way for $50-75 silver and $2200-$2500 Gold by New Years Day.

2. The Ben Bernank baulks, and says he can wait for some more printing. Markets literally implodes, Gold retraces to its MA, no idea what silver does, Euro region literally catches on fire and the 2009 lows will be welcomed with at least 2 major EU banks failures, and the secession of Greece by New Years Day. After Greece leaves, the domino effect will be catastrophic. I dont care to paint that picture.

3. The Ben Bernank paints a rosy picture, no markets buy it, but no markets sell it. Non Event.

So position yourself accordingly to YOUR plan, keep buying the phyzz, and pray for the printing presses-its the path of least resistance for all markets right now.

I have already done a phone interview with an expert on the metals market. This will be available when the site is launched as an introductory series.

Have a great weekend. Keep your head up. Doesnt matter if we go up or down from here, they cant even buy time anymore with fiat. Those times are over. We will win.

17 comments:

  1. A paid VIP option you say? what do I get for that? trading entry points? buy/sell signals? Vid's n picks? like wot you find for free on youtube after a bit of web research? If I pay you $10 a mth will I get executable trade info that will recoup my $10?

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  2. Ron Paul moneybomb update. At 10:39 am eastern, it was at $137,992. At 4:07, it is at $388,928. probably won't crack a million, but that's ok.

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  3. @madgstrader

    SGS gives us the info as he sees it (and damn unique and valuable at that), but as a trader you need to be soley responsible for what you do, and not rely on being spoon fed. Besides if you are worried about recouping $10, well then you should not be messing around with AU and AG trading.

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  4. madgstrader: 1st time poster here I see. The VIP is NOT 100% yet, we will see how things go. the VIP room may also feature live market trading sessions with audio/visual, tick by tick , trade by trade with me at the wheel.

    If you cant find $10 worth of value hear, just stick with the traditional methods of thanking me for my time on here and move on to other sites.

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  5. Isn't option expiry on the 27th?

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  6. @sgs 1st time poster yep but followed your blog since it began and you have at times posted useful actionable info. I never parted with a dollar yet on a subscription site for trade info and I been a fulltime gold trtader for 3 years but a tick by tick 2 way chat/feed during the comex session? shit thats a deal. Sign me up. N' if ur any good I'd charge alot more that $10 if I was u

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  7. oh yeah madgst and gld breakingnews are the same soz for confusion.

    http://goldbreakingnews.blogspot.com/

    http://madgoldspreadtrader.blogspot.com/

    Seriously tick by tick walkthru for $10 a mth? shit thats the best deal I ever heard wot u tradin? futures, spot, gld, puts/calls? sign me up mate

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  8. "Isn't option expiry on the 27th?"

    Yes, but the majority of the damage usually is the thursday/Friday prior to the expiry.

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  9. Looking forward to tutorials on the new site.

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  10. imagine if greece defaulted the 20th and the 22nd was qe3 + operation twist...

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  11. I was buying the plunge on Thurs, that worked out well!! The chart painting was obvious, and as usual all the technical metals gurus were calling for huge downside. The FOMC, by making such as big deal of their special 2 day meeting, is telling the markets to expect more printing IMO. The path of least resistance for the metals is up, perhaps dramatically. Looking forward to the new site, and $10 for the VIP sounds like a steal to me.

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  12. Well, I've been trying to get better at reading the tea leaves on these COT reports. This one has me regretting not selling off more Friday. Seems like they are not through shorting and may be saving up some serious ammo for Monday, but the increased longs tell me they know events will soon transpire so as to drive the price way up beyond their control. I'm thinking there will be no tricks because time is short and they've got to roll it. They'll raid it big on Sunday night (Monday Asia and Europe time) and raid it again at 9 AM sharp in futures trading and continue to raid it all day to get it down to Wynter Benton's magical $36 bottom. If I see raid Sunday night, I'm dropping my PSLV shares come 9:30 and buying back when it hits its low, which may be 3:59 Monday. If that happens, I'm guessing Bernanke's going to be fessin up to QE3. If it goes up Monday, I'm thinking non-event like SGS said. I really don't see option 2 happening since the Central Bankers are all in this shenanigan together, and we are not going to let Europe go down in flames, especially after we just 'saved' them with the money swap thing.

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  13. Shit, now that I look at it- dang they added a boatload of longs and things didn't really go up that much after last Tuesday. I'm thinking the fireworks are ready to set off Monday? I'm feeling bullish.

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  15. Net is that this COT report looks more bullish for both metals than the previous report.

    But you would normally expect G&S prices to be beaten down by the bullion banks shortly before options expiry so that options expire worthless and the bullion banks win... Beat down happens early in the week if options expire late in the week (like last month), else happen late in the week if options expire near the start of the following week (like this month).

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  16. ...but all that stands in the shadow of the Fed. Most here seem to believe the FED will jump with both feet into a big QE3 and OT2, but the Bernank knows that QE2 hurt the middle and lower class with price increases, and the inflationary CPI report last week might temper the FOMC. However nobody really knows what the FOMC will do.

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  17. Why is the market still behaving as if QE3 was not already far out to sea?

    $546 billion added in just three months now. Deets on my profile link.

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