Saturday, August 27, 2011

COT Report, Perth Mint, My poker game

Hope everyone is having a fabulous weekend thus far as its bright and sunny here. One of those perfect weather lower humidity weekends that suit my lifestyle.

I would like to go straight into the COT report as its it seems that the criminal minds that want to keep a lid on this silver game have conspired, yet again, and this is why we saw the massive sell offs in both metals.

GOLD COT:

Commercials: ADDED 14,588 Long, and COVERED 3823

This is bullish.

SILVER COT:

Commercials: reduced longs by 274, and ADDED 6144 SHORT. If you are thinking "You have to be kidding me.." you are not alone. I am assuming the majority of these were covered on the $44-39 move as this is from Tuesday.

Not too sure what to think of this, I think they have covered most of it on the downside volatility that they manufactured themselves. If they haven't covered them yet, we should see lemons being squeezed into fresh juice within 3 weeks.

I wrote a warning about the Perth Mint being ransacked yesterday. I have now two confirmations from very large distributors, and one mint, that have heard the same thing.
Let me clarify what this is. First, all NEW orders FROM dealers that want 1 oz silver coins from the PMint has BEEN SPOKEN FOR BY A SOVEREIGN CHINESE SOMETHING. Company's like APMEX etc. may already have orders in to get them, by any NEW orders they request have been spoken for, so we hear.

So you can still get the 2012 coins, albeit they will disappear in the first day, and that may be the end to that distribution. Now, is this the Perth Mint just trying to create more sales? I am not 100% sure on this yet, but as usual, I always inform my loyal readers of any insider news I receive.

My poker game last night, with the exception of one degenerate gambler who is for sure 500K in the whole and needs serious help, was a blast. I always try to test out the public's waters once to test the 'bubble' theory of precious metals. These players that I am surrounded by have money and perceive them to be in the 'know' about our current situation. This is the polar opposite of reality. I bought in for a tube of Maples. Everyone said, "what is that?" I said its money. They said, "no no buying in with car keys and bullshit, bring out the wallets." So I gladly took my maples back (knowing full well this idea would be dismissed) and gave them fresh crisp paper linen with various worthless denominations.

So much for the bubble. Long live Silver.



46 comments:

  1. The reason they sheep out on you is because they cannot buy a house, car, food, vacation, wife's christmas present, kids worthless education with silver. Until you move to Utah, you will be sheep sheared.

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  2. My poker story. Since you opened the door, I thought I'd walk through it. I have been playing in a game for the past 9 years with the same 7 guys. With the exception of one, all have personal net worth north of 7 figures and some mid 8's. The host of our monthly game is a former hedge fund manager who recently retired and currently writes for Thestreet.com. Although I consider him my good friend, he is a know it all Wall Street type...get it?

    I first started buying gold at $600/oz. and silver in the single digits, that was about the same time I realized that the ponzi scheme was about to unravel. During our games we seemed to always turn to a Market discussion since our illustrious host consistently had an opinion he wanted to share. As the perennial naysayer I usually took the opposite side of his tout of the month and described my shit storm prophecy. Needless to say I was laughed at, especially when I told the Brain Trust I was systematically converting my portfolio to 80% precious metals, keeping the balance in cash for commodity trading.

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  3. Part II-
    Each month I would continue to profess my opinion and each month I was looked at as if I had 3 heads. Then it happened...I forget the specific date but once Silver started to rise into the 30's and gold crossed 1000/oz my boys went from "you are nuts" to " metals are in a bubble you know!" How these geniuses flipped so quickly without ever once considering the asset class is beyond me? There was a short period of time where Mr Hedgie said he would probably take a position but he was waiting for a pullback to do it. Well, every time there was a pullback, he wanted a deeper retracement and never bought a fucking ounce. Last week during our game, 2 of my poker geniuses asked me for the name of my dealer and simultaneously asked if it was too late to buy? I also died of laughter but gave them the name nonetheless.

    I view this group as the perfect bubble barometer. So long as they are talking bubble, I'm safe, once the last of them begins to buy It's time to hedge my longs.

    Footnote: Not only are these guys successful and wealthy, they all have degrees from Ivy League schools, some with MBAs and 2 with PhDs. This goes to show you that following the heard will get you DEAD!

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  4. Similar story,

    Buddy of mine calls me leaves a message that says, hey man I hope you sold you gold. This was on Monday after it went to 1900.

    I called him back yesterday, I have been telling him for two years where he need to place is assets. He only invest in companies with dividends and at this time hes most in government welfare stocks, ie defense.

    So I ask him why, would I sell my PM's, he said because they went down, I laughed and said I bought more, lol.

    I then asked him how are you finances doing, told me fine. I asked did you ever buy and Au or Ag, he says I waiting for a pull back, LOL!!!

    I said just average in, if you wait for a pull back it could be never.

    So, then the has the nerve to ask me about investing in get this, baseball cards and about buying some dudes Corvette, I kid you fucking not!!, as a fucking investment.

    I tried to school him but hes stuck on stupid, I could get it through to him, death of a currency, inflation, real money, ect..

    I even asked him a simple question, which would you rather have 1 million in gold or a million in dollars, he submitted and said gold!

    He then went on and said his aunt bought at the high in the 80's and that shes some kind of expert because shes a fucking bean counter (account) and she just broke even, lol.

    I almost called her a dumb bitch, I said she bought at the high, this is not the high, he said how do you know, I said did you aunt by and gold this year, lol. I asked did she buy tech stocks in 2001, did she buy a house in 2007.

    Anyway, I dont know why I try but man people a fucking DUMB!!!!!!

    And I have known this guy for 20 years!

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  5. Malcolm,
    Here's what I continually remind myself...If everyone you talk to is already invested in gold there will be nobody left to buy and the price will fall. So long as the majority of sheeple are thinking it's over valued we are safe!

    I find it almost comical when most non believers ask the double barreled question..."should I buy now?" and "isn't it too expensive?" my typical response is yes and no. Since I buy each and every month as you suggested to your baseball card/corvette investor I don't give a rat's ass! Eventually I will have made a monthly purchase near the dead nuts high but so far each and every buy with the exception of one that was ill timed near the Silver spike is in profit. I know that those 1000 maples I bought at $48.02 will be a solid double and every monster box that gets delivered below that price is a gift. Kepp the faith, stack that shit to the rafters.

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  6. In case you're thinking about selling grandmas silver tea service here how to determine if it's solid silver of silver plated: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6mqbQtr9DM&feature=player_detailpage#t=124s

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  7. Hey @SGS @MikeS and @malcolm: a year from now if you get together with these guys/gals, you might want to bring the game "SORRY"...now wouldn't that be funny?

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  8. Just wanted to bring to light that the energies are having a nice perk up. Crude is lagging, but that could change quickly. Nat. Gas is still the kiss of death. Gap to the upside in heating oil.

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  9. @Mike S: you think it is tough trying to convince that group? Try talking to a retired Lt. Col. that did two chopper tours in Vietnam. He "knows" it all. He caught two massive stock fiat markets & believe gold & silver are "relics", although he does agree silver has alot of uses in industry.

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  10. Malcolm, i have tons of baseball cards, the 80s was the time to buy cardboard ... tell your pal he was only 30 years late ... wish I woulda bought gold then too haha

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  11. I believe in simple indicators for bubble. As long as majority mainstream people are not into Au/Ag and not talking about how much further up these precious metals will move, it is a long way from bubble.

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  12. Its not a bubble because mining stocks are pricing in 1200 gold

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  13. I'll call your tube of Maples and raise you a tube of Eagles.

    game one. :-)

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  14. Great discussion! As the only female here, I'd like to add my 2c...every chance I get, I ask people (successful people) in the financial industry about gold/silver as my barometer. The last one is a multi-millionaire, owns three spectacular homes, etc. She said, well you can't sell it can you? I'm rotfl just thinking about it. That was around July 4th...also had another wealthy friend call in a panic on the July pullback, she sold hers b/c her son-in-law who's a very, vey wealthy international businessman sold his...I told her do what you're comfortable with, don't do as I do, etc. and low and behold here we are back up over $40. Hope it lasts,lol. Never had one single soul tell me that they're accumulating. Shhh!

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  15. I don't believe we will ever see Silver in a "Bubble"! I know there all sorts of estimates on the above ground silver supply.. Let's be generous and say there's two Billion Ounces.. With Seven and half Billion People.. Do the math ! With it also being an Industrial metal.. Gold could be a different story, but I doubt it.. Who's ever going to trust the Governments or banks of the world again. For Several Generations ! Even the Sheep will wake up !

    I believe most Precious metal collectors to be some of the most informed people on the planet! I won't say I'm the brightest, but I am informed on the world I live in.. It's weird, out side of people that visit this site, and Zerohedge and such most people haven't heard of HAARP , Scalar waves,911 scam, FEMA camps and all sorts of other shit !.. It's So much like the movie , "Matrix" and we have swallowed the Red Pill! Sometimes I wished , I swallowed the the Blue one..lol

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  16. Sister,I'm a girl, too.

    I've been telling my brother to buy some silver for ages...can't get anywhere with him!

    Last time I bought, my broker said a woman had bought 5,000 oz,only to turn around and sell it during the panic! He said he nearly tore his hair out.

    I bought at 43 and 45...a large amount, but at the time before the margin hikes, I was told that as long as I didn't buy any higher, I'd get a double. Looks like it will come true.

    Was planning to buy more gold, but not at these levels and my broker at CMI has been on silver all along...I'm thinking of buying some more, although the bulk is hard for me to handle.

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  17. PS....Thoose 40+ buys were my only mistake... the rest is in at 14 and 28...

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  18. I am curious what does anyone think of US coins. I saw the ad on the side of the page.

    http://www.uscoins.com/landing/silvereagle.htm?gclid=CLjog9CG5aoCFQnc4AodUDRw9g

    I noticed they said they are selling one silver eagle at spot price with free shipping. Probably been making SGS some clicks too.

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  19. Met an old friend last night at a bar. He had a friend with him who is a banker. Eventually the conversation turned to the economy. My friend stated that three years ago he bought 10 Philharmonics for just under 10 grand from Monex, and that he just sent them back to Monex to sell. He was under the impression that the only place he could sell them was back to Monex (that was my first palm to forehead moment). This was when it hit $1900. He said they had to take a look at them to make sure they're real, and that Monex has the amount waiting for him in an account bearing 2% compounded daily when he decides what to do. So, A. he doesn't have the gold, and B. He doesn't have the money. I told him to see if he could get them back, & if not, put it back into PMs. The banker totally dismissed gold - "You can't eat it." I tried to explain the inflation of fiat currency and the attributes of PMs, but he didn't want to hear it. At least all my drinks were free.

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  20. @sister & @Insight

    I'm 26, hardworking, and criminally good looking. How about a date?

    First response gets me!

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  21. went to the perth mint today.

    story about the dragons is bullshit

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  22. @Mike S: years back, I read this article about how to predict moves without waves or Fib. I cannot remember how he termed it, but it was essentially this. You get a move, then a consolidation. Once you see it moving again in the main trend (whether it is up or down), he suggested this to predict the next move, and I will use Soybeans as the example. Soybeans had an intraweek low of 926 week of 6/11/10. An intraweek high of 1455.75 week of 2/11/11. Consolidation low of 1270 week of 3/18/11. The difference between low & high is +529.75. This guys theory is to add the 529.75 to the intraweek low (consolidation) which is 1270. That takes it up to 1799.75. So far, the all-time high is 1663, so 1799 doesn't seem too far fetched. Thoughts?

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  23. Have been buying silver and gold on a cummalative basis since silve was around $16.00 and gold was around $1200.00 ish (I think - losing track of time as I get older). My father in law - a wealthy man - came to me when silver hit $30.00 and tried to get me to sell. He said he new I was buying it and was concerned and his financial advisor said I should sell because it was overvalued. I told him everything is worth what it's buyer will pay. TThanks for your help pops but I think I'll hold onto my metal. He is fully invested in the stock market. We don't talk about money anymore.

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  24. From Jim Willie's Jackass Newsletter: Subscribe it the best financial geopolitical, economic news letter out there!

    "Dictator Hugo Chavez has retrieved the Venezuelan gold bullion held abroad. It is not planned, but rather done. He intends to nationalize the gold mining industry, since it is vital to monetary health during the global financial crisis, if not survival. The Chavez emissaries demanded the 99 tons of gold from their account at the Bank of England. The total amount was much more like 211 tons from the various accounts. The bankers had to appeal to the continent, which was successfully drained of gold bullion from other banks in the land of watches, chocolate, and yodeling. According to Bloomberg, other Venezuelan gold accounts are held under the trusty hands of banks in New York, London, and Toronto. The JPMorgan vault only contains 10.6 tons of physical gold. Actually from the CME update of metal depository statistics, JPM only has 338,303 ounces of registered gold in storage. Keep in mind that JPMorgan and other big US and London banks typically have pledged 100 times as much via their fractional banking and associated paper contract games. So the Bank of England and JPMorgan had to solicit substantial other supplies from Central Europe, where the sweat beaded on the foreheads and the glances were stern. But the gold was handed over in volume. Men armed with court action threats and other men armed with weapons were reportedly present.

    A well connected source informed that "the logistics of the relocation of Venezuelan gold was known. They retained experienced and efficient professionals. The retrieval and delivery was done under the radar screen and published publicly as a time lagged news story, once all was completed. The retrieval will crush many of the major bullion banks. These criminals have sold in excess of 50 thousand metric tones of allocated metal they do not actually have to unassuming customers. That quantity equates to approx to 25 years of global production. If you think the subprime mortgage chapter was a mega-fraud, then what comes next will be a shocker." In no way did the London and European bank supervisors wish to deny a hostile client like Chavez, who would rant and rave about corrupt gold banking practices from his Caracas pulpit for the world to hear, for days on end, but with credibility. The key fact is that the majority bulk of Venezuelan gold bullion was retrieved quickly and quietly, without incident, efficiently, and then reported publicly. One should infer that great precision was deployed, and pressure exerted to extract the gold at pressure points. The ripple effects will be felt next, in my view as weakening the gold banking system in general. Savvy analyst Ben Davies believes the Chavez gold delivery demands make for a major Game Changer, exposing the fractional gold banking practices as corrupt, causing great problems. Some unexpected consequences will make their way to the surface in coming months, maybe weeks. Look for fresh evidence of massive drainage of GLD inventory, since designed for corrupted diversions and betrayal of its investors. Adam Hamilton of Zeal (non-)Intelligence is due for a rude awakening, cold water on its naive clueless face.

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  25. Implications are rather big. The Venezuelan Govt is alarmed at the monetary system breakdown and seeks preparation for the upcoming shocks. Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro lectured about how the global financial system based on the USDollar had entered into a crisis of uncertainty. He claimed to be part of a plan to construct a new international monetary system, for particular usage in South America, to protect his nation from this situation. Such a vehicle would be incredibly difficult to manage and create. This bears watching, to see if a fledgling barter system is created at a high level. Details on the Venezuelan reserves makeup have been revealed. Official figures cite their total gold holdings at 365 tons, of which 211 tons are held overseas at the Bank of England, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and the Bank of Nova Scotia. Since 1980, Venezuela has held 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England, which is destined to come home. Strongman autocrat Chavez intends to eliminate the dictatorship of the USDollar as he calls it, by putting into action a plan to diversify its $28.7 billion in reserves away from US banks. Other cash reserves totaling $6.3 billion will be shifted into currencies from emerging markets where Venezuela feels loyalty and brotherhood. Funds will shift toward China, Russia, Brazil, and India, according to the central bank head Nelson Merentes. The 365.8 metric tons of gold reserves owned by Venezuela makes it the 15th-largest holder of the precious metal in the world, according the World Gold Council. Their gold holdings accounted for about 61% of the country's international reserves. Venezuela produces 11 metric tons of gold per year, and pirate miners extract an additional 10 to 11 tons a year, so claims the government. See the Bloomberg article (CLICK HERE)."

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  26. Gold Silver Gold analysts piece together other ripple effects, which could reach the GLD corrupted fund and raid their inventory. The JPM vaults are about to be caught offside, if not already. Blogger Dave in Denver adds perspective. He wrote, "Here is how it works. JPMorgan sells COMEX gold to hedge funds, who then opt to safe keep it at JPMorgan's COMEX depository for a 15 basis point fee. That makes the purchase very simple, the storage inexpensive, and enables the hedge fund to seemingly have possession of physical gold. But in reality all the hedge fund gains is a security interest, or paper documentation [certificate], in the gold rather than the actual gold. This enables JPMorgan to make an electronic ledger entry and create an account statement showing the market value of the gold purchased. But it never has to actually produce the physical bars and deliver them. This dynamic permits JPMorgan to sell gold that the bank is never held accountable for. This is exactly the scheme Morgan Stanley used with their silver fraud on a much smaller scale, that GLD and SLV use and that the COMEX, and the LBMA bullion banks use for their futures & forwards business." It is part and parcel of the fraudulent fractional gold banking scheme. JPMorgan has given clues openly on the fraud scheme, buying up warehouses and vault sites, extending their cancer. The game will continue to unravel and eventually expose deep criminal banking activity. The downstream consequences become intense and dangerous for the banks because this acts just like a bank run, except with gold instead of cash. The run on the bullion banks has already commenced.

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  27. My first silver was purchased @$12/ounce. My last silver was purchased at $42.50. I'm still a happy camper.

    My brother is so hopelessly enslaved to Keynesianism that I am afraid I have gone and offended him because I said he was "absolutely suicidal".

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  28. Why Governments try to control prices, by Keynes

    "A sentiment of trust in the legal money of the State is so deeply implanted in the citizens of all countries that they cannot but believe that some day this money must recover a part at least of its former value. To their minds it appears that value is inherent in money as such, and they do not apprehend that the real wealth, which this money might have stood for, has been dissipated once and for all.

    This sentiment is supported by the various legal regulations with which the Governments endeavor to control internal prices, and so to preserve some purchasing power for their legal tender. Thus the force of law preserves a measure of immediate purchasing power over some commodities and the force of sentiment and custom maintains, especially amongst peasants, a willingness to hoard paper which is really worthless...

    If, however, a government refrains from regulations and allows matters to take their course, essential commodities soon attain a level of price out of the reach of all but the rich, the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent, and the fraud upon the public can be concealed no longer."
    John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace, NY, 1920, p. 239-40

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  29. “Hundreds of thousands of rouble notes are being issued daily by our treasury. This is done, not in order to fill the coffers of the State with practically worthless paper, but with the deliberate intention of destroying the value of money as a means of payment. There is no justification for the existence of money in the Bolshevik state, where the necessities of life shall be paid for by work alone.

    Experience has taught us it is impossible to root out the evils of capitalism merely by confiscation and expropriation, for however ruthlessly such measures may be applied, astute speculators and obstinate survivors of the capitalist classes will always manage to evade them and continue to corrupt the life of the community. The simplest way to exterminate the very spirit of capitalism is therefore to flood the country with notes of a high face-value without financial guarantees of any sort.

    Already even a hundred-rouble note is almost valueless in Russia. Soon even the simplest peasant will realise that it is only a scrap of paper, not worth more than the rags from which it is manufactured. Men will cease to covet and hoard it so soon as they discover it will not buy anything, and the great illusion of the value and power of money, on which the capitalist state is based will have been definitely destroyed.”
    ~ Vladimir Lenin

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    “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers,’ who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
    Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
    ~ John Maynard Keynes

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  30. I've been telling friends and family to get out of the stock market, but most look at me and say, "it'll bounce back, it always does" and I say "no it won't, things are different now" but they just don't want to cut their losses and live in hope of a miraculous rally. Only one of my friends who I managed to wake up has smelt the coffee and is getting into PMs. I suppose one person is better than none.

    I count myself as lucky as I managed to surf the property boom here in Australia and used the capital gains from my investment properties to pay off all my debt. Now that I am no longer a debt slave I'm sinking all my fiat into PMs because lets face it there is simply nothing left worth investing in.

    It saddens me because most people I know will be slaughtered once the ponzi scheme collapses into a black hole.

    I have a 2 friends who have degrees in finance and neither of them knew anything about the reserve banking system or fraction reserve banking. WTF are they teaching at university these days? Looks like a dumb ass high school graduate like myself knows more about real world economics than a university graduate. Go figure!!!

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  31. "went to the perth mint today.

    story about the dragons is bullshit "

    Right, bc they would tell you there entire inventory is spoken for....like that would wipe out there current supply in about 4 min if they actually told the public.
    I'm still getting more info on this....

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  32. @heath9069: Unfortunately, what you described is all too common. It is heartbreaking to say the least.

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  33. I've being going to the Perth mint for months now, and most of their bullion bars are on back order with delivery scheduled for 4-6 weeks. They are having problems keeping up with demand. No sooner they get stock then its gone. Word must be getting out.

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  34. Led,
    I have been mentored by one of the greatest traders of all time. I won't say who but read Market Wizards. He called and showed me the way in corn, sugar, silver, gold and now beanmeal. When I first posted here I spoke of the "inner circle" many believe in efficient market theory...I do NOT. I believe in the cartel, the insiders, the "wizards" if you will. I am a technician but only when combined with knowledge of the smart money intentions. Corn has been a perfect example. When the chart looked like death but the smart money was buying weakness, no technician in the world could have predicted the move to new highs based on the chart action.

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  35. gainesville and apmex are both out of 1oz perth mint dragons.

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  36. @MikeS, we should all be so fortunate. Well, when you post, I'll for sure read. Thanks.

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  37. When the Dragons officially go on sale at the Perth Mint(sept 1st), you will still be able to buy 1oz dragons, but it is limited to 20 coins per customer.
    Dealers were able to pre order a small amount of these coins about to months ago. I imagine that China would've scooped up most of them then.

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  38. Dano:

    You are right. Maybe you missed yesterdays post when I said any additional orders after the original ones might be spoken for.

    Still trying to get an answer from my boy over there but he was gone this weekend. I should have full details soon.

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  39. SGS

    You made the Perth Mint Blog page here in Australia.

    Lunar Series II started in 2008 which features the 2012 1oz Dragon. The 10kg and 1oz silver bullion coin have a mint limit of 1000 and 300,000 respectively. (With Proof 1oz of only 6000.)

    My dealer is more than likely the Chinese Whisper you speak of.

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  40. Hey, I thought we were supposed to get a CME margin hike on SI last week, to follow gold. No?

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  41. SGS, paulo is correct - Perth Mint has issued a public statement which announces the rumour about the Chinese Buyout being a false one. http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blog/blog/11-08-29/No_Truth_In_%E2%80%9CChinese%E2%80%9D_Rumour.aspx. Regards, Warren

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  42. sure are beautiful coins, got some of the larger ones today

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