Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The Silver man Comeith

I was having one too many beers last night with a fellow American sheep I've known for half my life. We lived together in the dorm for 2 years, I know him better then he knows himself. We struck up another time consuming, half drunken stupor conversation about his great city Chicago and how nothing is in recession EXCEPT for housing.


He says he cant wait to be out of debt (housing + college) and have no burden.

Well I got news for you. That Housing thing that ties the American Dream and its wealth, that caused the 2008 catastrophe is going to take another 5-10 years (assuming no hyperinflation) to even get back to a confident level. And for all you Canadians out there thinking we are the show, and immune to real estate bubbles- you better have your jackets zipped, and winter tuuks on, because the winter of our discontent soon approaches, and it will be swift and plentiful. Housing is DEAD for 5-10 years in North America. If you just bought a house in Canada, I wish you luck. There are only so many welfare case somalian taxi drivers that can buy $280K homes in your neighborhood.

Then we went on to talk about the children and how sending them to college is going to be the best thing for them because, I quote, "They HAVE to get an education." Right. I then went on to tell him all the millionaires I know started working construction at 18, and now drive lambos and californias like its no ones buisness and laugh at us 'peasants' with that thing hanging on our walls working at a call center till you muster up a better paying $32,000 job. LOL.

Moving on the metals. According to me, the next two days should be raided, in accordance with the usual law of kicking the life out of the comex options expiry stop losses testing any weak hands but by Aug 2nd, we should be back on track. And a big track at that as the Debt ceiling thing should be done by the weekend (adding to the attack on the metals) so a 48-36 hour window of opportunity exists if you didnt buy the phyzz at $33 as a small dip may be coming. I am keeping my $75 target silver for new years day...if anyone cared.

Morgan Stanley has done us some research also from ZH. I have made some amendments to the chart.

A few things that dont make sense to me here. From 2007-2009 the price got smoked, YET, the SLV bullion holding inclined, at a loftily rate I would say wouldn't you? And the increase from $25-50 in price, in regards to them finding the required bullion to back was not so lofty, would you not say? Got PHYZZ?

This article caught my eye today on yahoos front page:

I thought it was a joke, but its real. It claims that there are more and more people coming in and trading in their chains and bracelets for cash in Toronto. Great. So while us dumb, drunk and high Americanized idiots trade in scrap gold, the Chinese and Indians and Asia can buy enough of it. What else can I say? We are being robbed before our very eyes and we sit back and let dancing with the stars tell us what to do...well good, I cant wait for the grand finale on this one because I am ready.

Going into this weekend, I would suggest buying calls and puts at the same strike if you have no idea what Sunday night brings you. The next 3 days "should" provide us with cheaper calls to pick up and hedge with. And if all else fails and you cant trade equities or options, buy the physical on the dips before the breakout to no mans land above $50-its coming sooner then you expect.


  1. I think your dead on SGS. With the miners down today I'm assuming the short miners long PM is the play. Could be a good shakeout and last call to load up. I was able to load up on GPL at .51 and AG at 4.35. I thought that was expensive then. If only I had bought more I could retire to a farm in the county...

  2. Jasper,

    What was your strike price for those?

  3. LMAO, Somalian cab drivers- 280K only gets you a 2 bedroom condo here in Calgary, tho that'll change when SHTF.
    US tankage will mean we'll have to build a pipeline to the coast so we can sell our oil to the Chinks.

  4. King otct don't need to go to far with the pipeline, you must mean Vancouver because they are already here.

  5. ROTFPMSL! treez -speechless - Awesome, and true.

  6. @highrise408

    i know you're still readin' the blog. there's no way you'd turn your back on this site that easily.

  7. Malcolm, I bought the stock for those prices then sat on my hands. I was trying to say that this may be the last time to load up big on good PM stocks. These babies at 75 phyzz will skyrocket. FYI not pumping these just trying to back my point up. FYI I also own a lot of RBY and got my ace handed to me. Never have a noob CEO was my teaching on RBY.

  8. @highrise408

    I understand that SGS is trying to do a completly different type of site. He doesn't really care to be the Norm .. or Fuck with Trolls. He wants to attract the like minded people or at least the ones that can be swayed out of the dark side.. I'm not a Trader at all, but I still Glean Very Important information off this site. I'm only interested in Stacking the Phyzzz.. And also helping people. Trolls are againts everything we stand for.. I don't believe it has a Damn thing to do with Free Speach ! One of my Favorite pass times, is Junking the Trolls on Zerohedge..lol And I've only posted there twice..

  9. Another fine post SGS.

    Loaded up on GDX calls ( cheap ) yes it comes and it will be swift.

    be well

  10. Jasper,

    I got it! LOL I was in First Majestic around July or Aug, 2010, don't remember what I paid for I could look it up, some , but I let it go at about 19 or 20! Had a couple of thousand shares, funny thing is I got the tip from the Gold Report, on a whim!

    found it 4.89 on 8/31, I think I did ok!

  11. The straddle options strategy that you are suggesting is interesting. I also think that people should bet for the volatility while waiting for August 2nd since we don't really know in what direction the equity market will be going ...

    Also, the chart with SLV holdings/silver price comparison is very interesting. However, I guess that JPM was stacking up not because they were secretly long silver, but because of SLV demand by investors ... Anyway, SLV is bullshit because the trust can always hedge using futures and settle in cash if investors ask for SLV delivery ... There is no need to have the physical for SLV ...

  12. @highrise

    Stick around to get the secret handshake...

  13. been following the metals for years and still a novice, but SGS I am curious what would you think if NO RAID comes in next two days? I mean, would that portent ANYTHING to you?

    I like turd, seems like a good guy etc, but he in no way made good calls for this summer on metals, he seems shocked as anyone--warned everyone not to buy silver or gold for a long patch etc ... then when it bounced back he was pretty quiet/shocked ... please, that's not a "cap" etc on him, the guy knows his stuff, yet his faux pas promotes William Goldman's adage, "no one knows anything."

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  15. SGS, on Harvey's blog he has been mentioning that the Comex is settling in GLD and SLV which is actually legal as I understand it. That would seem to me to be default but never the less why has no word slipped out if that is the case?

    Can you explain?

    Thx u

  16. SGS, please keep doin' what your doin' and let the haters hate somewhere else. This is your electronic living-room and nobody brings spam in here without your permission. If folks like highrise408 think it is censorship, they can start their own blog elsewhere. Nobody should be able to force others to read their crap (and I'm thinking of the Wether Eunuch). Thanks from a grateful non-finance type who hates trolls and ignorance equally.

  17. All well & good.(But, I disagree.SILVER ain't going above JPM stock price soon.Eventually yes.)

    But, dude!!

    WHERE is PART 7 BEARS???



  18. Not only COMEX, but the whole wall street system is in default...We'll see it all burning, just like in ROME soon, never ye fret!These monsters have pissed off some pretty serious people, who will win out in the end.

  19. Whats going to happen Monday with Canadian Civic Holiday, and the Swiss and Icelandic Bank Holidays on Monday 1 August?

  20. Show this to people in your life that won't buy either PHYZZ:


  21. SGS....great post. You made several good points. Yes, real estate will not come back for quite a while. I happen to be a bit more pessimistic on the housing market. I don't think it will ever come back. I know...I don't go to parties anymore. They don't want me there. I am just too damn negative...LOL.

    Anyhow, what is going on in the SLV is just criminal. Anyone who advises owning the SLV needs to check themself into the nearest CATSCAN CLINIC and get a complete workup. If you buy the SLV, do it only for trading purposes. I wouldn't even advise that, but if you must then so be it.

    COLIN...A lot of analysts called for a SLOW PATCH in gold and silver. Most of those who are interviewed on King World News said it would be an interesting summer with higher prices. That is why I stick to listening to KWN and leave most others alone.

    Ned Schmidt who I have emailed several times, has been a bear on silver since AUG-SEPT 2010. He has a chart that says the FAIR VALUE for silver is $15 an ounce. He must believe it takes $5 to produce an ounce of silver. Let me tell you....in 2010, it was several times higher than $5. Ned...eat your heart out.

    Ned Schmidt is on Financial Sense all the time. He is typical of the analysts I am talking about. They are using Technicals and Charting that is outdated and worthless. Basically they are Generals in WW2 using tactics from WW1.

    Ned Schmidt supposedly is or has managed over $3 billion in assets. Good grief. When his subscribers find out that they lost money not buying silver...Ned's gonna get some serious BLOWBACK.


    I enjoy this blog because it comes from SGS who is the type person I gravitate towards. I find those who use the most foul language, speak the most truth. That is why my favorite comedian was George Carlin. Jeesh...the guy was DEAD ON in many topics in his routine. He had a filthy mouth...and I loved it. He would be having a BALL today if he was still alive.

    I am glad I am not part of what I term the "Subscription Mill". This is the money making scheme to attract as many investors to your website service. I find the higher the yearly rate the more worthless the information. For instance, I believe Dennis Gartman charges $5,000 a year. I say take that $5,000 and buy silver and gold bullion and you would do alot better trading by hiring a pet monkey to throw shit at charts on a wall than paying Dennis Gartman all that money.

  22. My prediction for the weekend is a government manufactured crisis which puts Congress into emergency mode and forces them to increase the debt ceiling while allowing both sides to claim they never gave in, rather it was the crisis that forced them to put aside their objectives for the short term.

  23. lol... 280k. wont get you anything in vancouver. you might be able to get a studio apartment... but a 1 bedroom starts mid 3's. The funny part is, nobody thinks twice about it, they go to the bank and get a massive loan under 40 year terms. I will be renting thanks, at least until people realize its not sustainable and the whole thing collapses onto itself, maybe then I can pick up a house for what its actually worth.

  24. Financial Sense has dueling silver interviews today, Jeffrey Christian & Eric Sprott. Christian actually brings up 2 good points: 1 - Andrew Maguire won't say where's worked (Christian actually thinks he claimed to be a former JPM employee like Christian himself) and 2 - the premiums on bullion coins is shrinking.

  25. Jeff Christian is bullion banks' b*tch infamous for talking crap about GATA and so on. I'd put him in John Nadler's category.