Monday, May 23, 2011

$US 76


Anyone not using candle stick charting should proceed to choke themselves. Notice how many Doji's are at that bottom?

On friday I gave a clear cut reco to buy some PUTS on AMZN. The $US looks like its okay here, I would suspect a broad market selloff tomorrow. I will sell my puts again somewhere around $193 again to be safe if we get major selling. Anything can happen overnight, but I think the great QE bubble may be coming to an abrupt halt. Hedge, protect your longs, and keep buying the PHYZZ on dips.

Its a holiday tomorrow here, I will be trading all day helping to perpetuate the ponzi in order to put some T-bone on the table...thats all we really want right?
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26 comments:

  1. indosilMay 23, 2011 at 1:27 AM

    @SGS

    QE BUBBLE!!!!!!!
    do u mean to say no qe3,4,....n ??what will happen to PMs?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dr Maneki NekoMay 23, 2011 at 2:12 AM

    @indosil: if there is no explicit QE3 (or QE 2.5), the dollar carry trade will stop, the dollar will rally and commodities will drop like a stone (surprisingly, as I would expect people to flee into gold and silver, but they will go down). If anybody can explain *why*, that would be great.

    ReplyDelete
  3. walp86May 23, 2011 at 2:45 AM

    I know what a Doji's are, but is it actually an acronym, or does it mean something else, like the rodents I get on Google search?

    Nikkei -1.6%
    Hang Seng -2% roughly

    DAX is gonna stage dive in less than 15 minutes, and drag the poor unawarable public down, believe me.

    I mean, come on, Greek firefighters seldom strike the police literally? Thats huge.

    And Spain is really starting to look like a red hornets nest.

    Economical SHTF?
    Obongo crack corn, and I dont care!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Building Rome TraderMay 23, 2011 at 2:50 AM

    You don't think the recent drop in commodities was the unwinding already, markets being fwd looking? Who wanted to be the last one at the party?

    Does "why" matter? Nope. It's the question we always want answered though.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 5:10 AM

    Interesting blog. Anybody care to comment.

    http://www.myspace.com/tom_heneghan_intel/blog

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 5:12 AM

    At this point in the precious metals cycle I revisited some very important long reads about the history of precious metals as currency etc, particularly Silver.

    If none of you have read – Silver Money by Dickson H. Leavens

    http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cm/m04/index.htm

    What stands out for me is that the western world has tried 3 times to “manipulate” China with regard to compensation for goods. Opium payment was one of them – as documented by Rickards. But then the west started paying up with Silver but soon devalued it slowly – in the modern world its with the dollar and treasuries and once again this devaluation hits China. I think they have had enough now and will force the issue.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 5:14 AM

    Then there is a boring but important read – A Cross of Gold by Viera
    Google it – its on GATA site.
    The last two paragraphs quoted…
    **********************************************************************
    “So why are not more of the champions of sound money, limited government, and free markets actively promoting the adoption of an alternative gold currency?

    The present economic crisis presents the best opportunity since 1932 for taking the steps necessary and sufficient to free the American people from their thralldom to the Federal Reserve System and the vicious factions behind it. Under the pressure of this crisis, common people are finally awakening to their predicament, and sensing what needs to be done—because, as Samuel Johnson once observed, nothing focuses a man’s mind more sharply than his impending hanging. Moreover, this may be the last opportunity of its kind for a long time to come. For if “the financial community” can succeed in jury-rigging some supra-national global currency and central bank, the Ponzi scheme of fiat currency can probably be kept inflated for another generation, until a final, utterly catastrophic breakdown sweeps across the entire world.

    So, the American people must be convinced now—immediately, if not sooner—ahora
    mismo—that this country’s economy cannot be restored by mere repair or renovation of the existing edifice of money and banking, but only by its total replacement. The present structure is rotten to its very foundations, and even below. It lacks the capacity to survive—and can claim no right to be saved. A new structure must be built from the ground up, on a new site, according to a different plan, with better workmen. If this can be accomplished, then for the first time in generations Americans, indeed all of mankind, will enjoy honest weights and measures in the monetary field—and with that reform, will have a realistic hope to restore honest commerce and honest politics as well.
    ***********************************************************************

    The elite realize this and hence are working towards that goal but they want the fewest people to be on the same road. Hence according to Lindsey Williams – the elite is buying up Gold and Silver physical on the cheap and rigging the paper market so that the populous will sit with the short position in paper, ie TBTF bailout once again.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 5:16 AM

    Anybody who hasn't read this yet - needs to.

    The next good read is a history of Silver Stealers by Charles Savoie. www.silverstealers.net

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dr Maneki NekoMay 23, 2011 at 5:29 AM

    shaun: the "why" kind of matters if you want to find a correlation between event and reaction. Again, if QE2 stops and there is no QE3, who will buy up the debt (if you are allowed to raise the debt ceiling ;-), so that should undermine the reserve currency status of the $USD and weaken it... But it looks like it will rally instead. And paper silver (and silver related companies) take a dive. Perhaps phyzz will get even bigger premiums to compensate for this unlogical move?

    ReplyDelete
  10. UnknownMay 23, 2011 at 8:03 AM

    If you hold "paper metals" you are going to get hurt, big time. Hold physical gold and $ilver to win-win, also ammo and whiskey to trade for food.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Louis CypherMay 23, 2011 at 8:09 AM

    On the the SLV database help wanted....

    Just to expand a bit on what we are trying to accomplish. If we can track the movements of these bars whether they are real or imagined we should be able to see patterns forming. If we can see patterns then they become predictable and possibly tradeable. By applying statistics to the results we may be able to uncover mistakes or abnormal behavior. We could figure out for instance by bar movements whether it is physically possible for bars to enter and leave within certain time frames. In other words we intend to pick at this like a scab until it bleeds. Is it the same bars entering and leaving all the times? etc etc.
    Also the owners of these bars might be curious to look at this stuff and if they notice their bars moving when they shouldn't well then we have something interesting ....

    ReplyDelete
  12. DavidMay 23, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Can anyone recommend any inventory software for PHYZZ? I have bars with different cost bases (basises?) that I need to keep track of, also purchase date and now I am gifting bars to my minor children before the price explodes, so I need to keep track of what bar number belongs to whom etc etc. I know, nice problem to have.

    ReplyDelete
  13. silvergoldsilverMay 23, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    LC email me more on this please mrsilvergoldsilver@yahoo.com

    AMZN @193 already, but I guess I'm a shill now. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  14. Garry LindsayMay 23, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    I am amazed silver and gold are not getting hammered way more than they are right now, considering we have a 1.2% rise in the .DXY!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Garry LindsayMay 23, 2011 at 9:52 AM

    Well I just lost $3000!!! I assumed Silver was about to drop and its up and so is the dollar, WTF is going on!

    ReplyDelete
  16. UnknownMay 23, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    portfolio calculator down load at
    http://www.the-moneychanger.com/entry.phtml

    ReplyDelete
  17. silvergoldsilverMay 23, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    Garry, take it easy, you need to start listening to me. I am now out of my AMZN trade for a 50% gain overnight.
    Trading silver with correlated $US is a death wish full of noise right now. Stop. Focus on some low lying fruit right now away form the shit storm. Dont worry, give it a month, I will get back int o trading the PM's with you.

    So for the record bought the $3 PUT, sold the $5 PUT. Moving on.

    ReplyDelete
  18. BuckanearMay 23, 2011 at 10:04 AM

    A friend of mine is in Europe and in Spain yesterday - the riots in the streets are real folks....

    I am traveling in Europe. Off to Florence today. Yesterday I witnessed a large demonstration in Spain (election day) against the bankers and Spanish gov´t. People are fed up...more pay cuts to teachers, nurses, policemen, firemen, while the salaries and bonuses boom for bank executives. And you can´t walk away from mortgage like you can in
    America. In debt for life.

    I´ll listen to your youtube link in Italy. I loved the one about how the banks are screwing the people of Ireland (Max Kieser) -- the non-fighting Irish?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Garry LindsayMay 23, 2011 at 10:12 AM

    SGS, where is a good place to learn/ read about PUT and CALL options trading. I am a complete novice. As you said I am just trying to make some cash so the family can have a life etc...! Trading PM's straight up right now is a nightmare!

    Whats the best brokerage account to trade options online?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Garry LindsayMay 23, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    SGS is your success at trading PUTS and CALLS related to you knowing trends and the worth of a stock. Or are other people just plain novices. Surely when you make money somebody is loosing money? Surely you have loosers as well as winners?

    ReplyDelete
  21. malcolmMay 23, 2011 at 10:33 AM

    SGS,

    Whats the next move? I missed this trade! Damn!

    Garry,

    I'm with optionsxpress, I really like them.

    ReplyDelete
  22. walp86May 23, 2011 at 10:36 AM

    lol, I have both buy and sell warrants on oil right now, anything big can happend to that sucker.

    Liquidity crisis - Tank
    WW3 - Skyrocket

    You might as well say that I have a RocketTank full of oil ;)

    Win Win scenario, unless Status Quo remains of course, but being a mathematician and all, singularities seldom exists in practice...

    ReplyDelete
  23. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 10:45 AM

    mrttt63,

    JFC!!!!!!! I had no idea about Executive Order 6814 in 1934 after the passage of the Silver Purchase Act of 1934!!!

    What?! This is another huge piece of detail missing from my research. Not once did any of my sources mention this EO on silver... Why the F* didn't anybody say this?! I never knew this existed. Now, I'm having to re-evaluate everything and determine where I need to go from here. Now, I'm getting the feeling that my plan to massively expand my purchase of tangible goods this year is a very solid plan to go.

    SE

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    I have decided that the book, The Silver Stealers linked above, is something worth reading, and I just got through the first few pages, and it's convinced that if anyone need to be assigned the familial responsibility for preparing the family for the future, it's going to have to be me and me only, because it is way too much detail, too much information for me to leave or even share the responsibility with another family member, except perhaps their money if they are so incline, but none of them have any clue what's going on. Just too much can go wrong. I'm researching from this book to see what I need to do.

    SE

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousMay 23, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    Yes, the Silver Stealers is a good read. They hate fucking silver. For all you peak oil fans, punch in $silver:$wtic on a weekly three year chart to see something fantastic. Finally a way to profit from peak oil without buying an oil well or rolling futures contracts every month.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Adam ChalmersMay 23, 2011 at 3:39 PM

    @Gary Lindsay...

    NIA just came out with an education report on options trading. Not sure how good it is but here's the link...

    http://inflation.us/NIA_Educational_Report_Options.pdf

    ReplyDelete

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