When I see this in MSM, I always think about what James Bond told in the beginning QOS movie (after the nice ride) to Mr White: TIME TO GET OUT.
But I'm a stubborn beast 1) waiting for gold @ several thousands and silver several hundreds 2) not willing to get out EVER. Once you hold 1kg kookaburra in your hand, you know what I mean.
There is something quite interesting to note. One of the top institutional holders in Yahoo! is BlackRock Institutional Trust, N.A. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=YHOO
Why is this interesting? http://www2.blackrock.com/US/individual-investors/products/ishares-exchange-traded-funds
wtf...is this the start of the mania or did OweBama manage to steal some metal from Go Daffy for JPM and they are ready to push it down a bit? I'm so confused.
I don't know why everyone assumes this is the final phase of the bull run for precious metals and therefore prices can't go down only to return higher in the future.
Articles like the one referenced here and the constant mention of PM's by the talking heads are common during the final wave of a move (Wave V for the EW guys out there).
I'm expecting a run towards $50 followed by a huge selloff. Maybe the selloff comes now, maybe later. What's clear is that small money is beginning to chase the momentum of PMs and this is the start of a major trend. I purchased a put option on silver today to hedge and take advantage of the likely increase in IV next week.
If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30, then run to $100.... does it make any difference at the end of the day? Everyone who knows the true value of gold and silver should be paying attention to the only valuations that matter (Gold/Silver ratio and Gold/Dow ratio). Buy physical and wait for the "moment of truth" whenever it comes. Trust me that by that time the price won't be quoted in dollar increments.
could this perhaps be a trap for the sheeple to get a few to buy physical then Blythe and friends come to the rescue and beat the fuck out of it causing the sheeple to have a traumatic experience thus making them return to their fiat just before SHTF???
Does anyone else get the sneaking suspicion that silvers back is gonna get broken soon? When the main stream media is telling joe schmoe that silver is the shiznit would create the opportune time for paper shorters to rape the market and shake out a booty load of investment supply overhang from the market to be sucked up into the industry side of things for a pretty profit before the CRIMEX defaults and assets are established in asian markets.
I'd agree with you Chris. Be prepared that this is a trap. They are doig the opposite of what everyone expects. Run the silver market up very fast and hard, then have a major bash down over a period of a month or so, then keep it at the new levels long enough to unwind some of there contracts.
When PM's make headline news, it doesn't mean a thing to the sheeple. They'll think it's another bubble, and they wouldn't know where to get it even if they wanted it.
So I'm not worried at all the PM's are getting more airtime. It's perfect opportunity for all the media to bash it while I continue to stock up as the dollar falls to it's timely death.
a 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
There was an article on main Yahoo page a month or so ago that featured value of copper pennies. No one gives a shit anymore. People care about who is getting voted off American Idol. Until gold/silver are accepted at merchants then all is safe as far as I am concerned. Heck, the local gunshops in my town now say "GUN SHOP - We Buy Gold."
Why would they feel the need to sucker people into PM's? They have already suckered them into tax free savings accounts and mutual funds that have a rate of return in real terms of -30% due to inflation.
If they drop the price the Chinese will come in and clean us out, more so.
Internet news, meh, when its blasting across CNN and FOX, and Global News I will be afraid.
The debt spiral is just going to get worse, the trust in paper money is going to get broken eventually and when it happens you better have your physical and some food.
I personally wouldn't hold anything that is depreciating as quick as the dollar.
@Terry, it seems to me that buying physical silver now carries a small risk of it falling by a few dollars. Not owning silver now carries an almost certain risk of silver climbing another $5 to $10 dollars eventually. The call is yours.
As for me, I'm fully invested in physical silver, and as of this afternoon, frozen, dry, and canned foods.
If the government shuts down, silver is going up. If the debt ceiling is raised, silver is going up. Heads, I win. Tails, I win big.
@SpyderTL I like the way you think my friend..Think big...I mean I am going to try to hold out until my silver can buy A new house... and then ride that bubble :O) Thanks SGS
Go ahead and make a friggen flow chart outlining ever possible scenario for the movement of silver over time. Come to your "top price" so you feel better. You're wasting your time if you're long physical. Think about it.
This was a great week. If it vomits all the gain back up plus another 5%, guess what...load up again. Even better. Shake out the weak. BTFD, rince, repeat.
How insane of a notion is it that people will someday be clambering to trade their poop paper Benny Bucks for old, worn silver coins worth 100x the original face value. If that's not inflation, give me a silver bullet in the side of the head.
@mossmoon, always! As on commenter said earlier, at this point, rate hikes are like blood in the water for the Sharks. We are the Sharks, BTW.
@Patrick, I'm locked in to a 30 year mortgage, which may turn out to be a pretty good move, if Hyperinflation takes off without notice. A $200,000 house could be a $20,000,000 house in a matter of weeks. The whole point of physical gold and silver is a shield against long-term or hyperinflation. Locking in a mortgage now is not much different than stocking up on wheat and rice. There's a 90% chance that they will cost you 100% or more next year.
I'm not a gambler. If I wanted to roll the dice with my life savings, I would just go to Vegas and bet it all on Black. I bought physical silver because it became obvious that keeping money in a savings account was becoming an even bigger gamble than investing in the stock market. That was 6 months ago. Today, a savings account isn't even a straight up game of chance... It's more like an endless russian roulette tournament.
To answer the questions being posed: Anyone who understands the true fundamental reason for holding gold and silver (store of value and purchasing power, NOT speculative gains) isn't concerned much with the fiat price of the metals. It's all about purchasing power.
The reason we're likely to see a rather massive drop in the fiat price before the "end times" is that the current monetary policy is in place to fight debt deflation. Don't let the absurd policies of the last year fool you all into believing that the consumer and private sectors aren't still deleveraging. It won't take much more than central banks taking their feet off the gas pedal to result in the next deflationary headfake scare.
I'm not saying go sell your physical metals (because trading them for fiat is flat out foolishness), but anyone holding leveraged paper positions should be wary of the possibility of a huge selloff this year.
Like I said before, if the USD fiat price goes from $50 to $30 and then to $100, $1,000, $100,000, etc. then the drop to $30 was merely a minor counter trend in the major trend.
The major trend is up. Anyone with two eyeballs can see this. But every major trend has counter trends and those who practice irrational exuberance will get burned in any market.
If you're holding paper at $41, then hopefully you're taking some of those profits and buying physical or at least hedging with some very cheap out of the money puts.
"Historic" Congress/OWEF***BAMA cut 38 Billion...... Now What?????????????????????? This reality TV show has take a turn for the worse. How do I change the channel???
I imagine silver will drop a few percent on Sunday when the market opens, due to the last minute $38 billion budget cuts. But I don't think it will take long for people to realize that we are still just as screwed financially as we were a week ago. Not long at all... Maybe a few hours...
There is a lot of talk about "When do I sell my Silver".
I think this is an "elite" scam to make weak hands panic when the price reaches $50 (when the Hunt brothers crashed).
As an "investor" not a "trader" I believe the only time you will sell some of your Silver is if you want to buy a new car (as an example) or some other "thing" that you want.
What you must never do is sell ALL of your Silver for FIAT currency.
There will never be a time to sell unless FIAT is replaced with REAL money.
So there is no need to constantly think "when do I sell".
To be honest, I'm not sure there will be a sell-off of silver even with the budget going through and the dollar recovering much.
Why?
There are still only a small percentage of people in PM's. Asian demand is massive and most people who are into silver aren't getting out because they know what is coming down the road with fiat currency.
SGS, Master, perhaps your most interesting of the many interesting post you've made. Should I hedge at $50.
"If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30"
a 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
Plz explain this possible mother of all buying opportunities? A retrace to 30 would make us (you the master of the universe and cement your legend)
Plz explain this as your humble servant wonders if we should hedge or plan for the mother off all buying opportunities.
"If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30"
a 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
When I see this in MSM, I always think about what James Bond told in the beginning QOS movie (after the nice ride) to Mr White: TIME TO GET OUT.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm a stubborn beast
1) waiting for gold @ several thousands and silver several hundreds
2) not willing to get out EVER. Once you hold 1kg kookaburra in your hand, you know what I mean.
Cheers
Get out? This ride is just getting started!
ReplyDelete@SGS this was in Yahoo Finance three days ago too:
ReplyDeletehttp://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Sprott-Silver-Is-The-indie-338180845.html?x=0
There is something quite interesting to note. One of the top institutional holders in Yahoo! is BlackRock Institutional Trust, N.A. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=YHOO
Why is this interesting? http://www2.blackrock.com/US/individual-investors/products/ishares-exchange-traded-funds
wtf...is this the start of the mania or did OweBama manage to steal some metal from Go Daffy for JPM and they are ready to push it down a bit? I'm so confused.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why everyone assumes this is the final phase of the bull run for precious metals and therefore prices can't go down only to return higher in the future.
ReplyDeleteArticles like the one referenced here and the constant mention of PM's by the talking heads are common during the final wave of a move (Wave V for the EW guys out there).
I'm expecting a run towards $50 followed by a huge selloff. Maybe the selloff comes now, maybe later. What's clear is that small money is beginning to chase the momentum of PMs and this is the start of a major trend. I purchased a put option on silver today to hedge and take advantage of the likely increase in IV next week.
If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30, then run to $100.... does it make any difference at the end of the day? Everyone who knows the true value of gold and silver should be paying attention to the only valuations that matter (Gold/Silver ratio and Gold/Dow ratio). Buy physical and wait for the "moment of truth" whenever it comes. Trust me that by that time the price won't be quoted in dollar increments.
could this perhaps be a trap for the sheeple to get a few to buy physical then Blythe and friends come to the rescue and beat the fuck out of it causing the sheeple to have a traumatic experience thus making them return to their fiat just before SHTF???
ReplyDeleteand leaving the PMs for good?
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else get the sneaking suspicion that silvers back is gonna get broken soon? When the main stream media is telling joe schmoe that silver is the shiznit would create the opportune time for paper shorters to rape the market and shake out a booty load of investment supply overhang from the market to be sucked up into the industry side of things for a pretty profit before the CRIMEX defaults and assets are established in asian markets.
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with you Chris. Be prepared that this is a trap. They are doig the opposite of what everyone expects. Run the silver market up very fast and hard, then have a major bash down over a period of a month or so, then keep it at the new levels long enough to unwind some of there contracts.
ReplyDeletesry, my grammar sucked on that one, but you get the idea
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIs this dumbfuck Friday?
ReplyDeleteBoys and wanna be boys, the fundamentals for silver are huge and The Morgue and HSBC are short 7 billion ounces. Don't be baa baa sheep fuckatrons...
When PM's make headline news, it doesn't mean a thing to the sheeple. They'll think it's another bubble, and they wouldn't know where to get it even if they wanted it.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm not worried at all the PM's are getting more airtime. It's perfect opportunity for all the media to bash it while I continue to stock up as the dollar falls to it's timely death.
What a great day for Silver and A Bit Sad Day for me.
ReplyDeleteI got out of my Long position at 40.2 and Silver Ran till 40.95
Don't know If I should wait for a Pull back or Enter on Monday Morning ?
Any suggestion will be appreciated highly.
SGS: Can not Thank you Enuf for educating us enter in this Secular Bull Market at early stage.
"If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30"
ReplyDeletea 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
There was an article on main Yahoo page a month or so ago that featured value of copper pennies. No one gives a shit anymore. People care about who is getting voted off American Idol. Until gold/silver are accepted at merchants then all is safe as far as I am concerned. Heck, the local gunshops in my town now say "GUN SHOP - We Buy Gold."
ReplyDeleteWhy would they feel the need to sucker people into PM's? They have already suckered them into tax free savings accounts and mutual funds that have a rate of return in real terms of -30% due to inflation.
ReplyDeleteIf they drop the price the Chinese will come in and clean us out, more so.
Internet news, meh, when its blasting across CNN and FOX, and Global News I will be afraid.
The debt spiral is just going to get worse, the trust in paper money is going to get broken eventually and when it happens you better have your physical and some food.
I personally wouldn't hold anything that is depreciating as quick as the dollar.
@Terry, it seems to me that buying physical silver now carries a small risk of it falling by a few dollars. Not owning silver now carries an almost certain risk of silver climbing another $5 to $10 dollars eventually. The call is yours.
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I'm fully invested in physical silver, and as of this afternoon, frozen, dry, and canned foods.
If the government shuts down, silver is going up. If the debt ceiling is raised, silver is going up. Heads, I win. Tails, I win big.
@SpyderTL I like the way you think my friend..Think big...I mean I am going to try to hold out until my silver can buy A new house... and then ride that bubble :O) Thanks SGS
ReplyDeleteGo ahead and make a friggen flow chart outlining ever possible scenario for the movement of silver over time. Come to your "top price" so you feel better. You're wasting your time if you're long physical. Think about it.
ReplyDeleteThis was a great week. If it vomits all the gain back up plus another 5%, guess what...load up again. Even better. Shake out the weak. BTFD, rince, repeat.
How insane of a notion is it that people will someday be clambering to trade their poop paper Benny Bucks for old, worn silver coins worth 100x the original face value. If that's not inflation, give me a silver bullet in the side of the head.
Anyone expecting a margin hike?
ReplyDelete@mossmoon, always! As on commenter said earlier, at this point, rate hikes are like blood in the water for the Sharks. We are the Sharks, BTW.
ReplyDelete@Patrick, I'm locked in to a 30 year mortgage, which may turn out to be a pretty good move, if Hyperinflation takes off without notice. A $200,000 house could be a $20,000,000 house in a matter of weeks. The whole point of physical gold and silver is a shield against long-term or hyperinflation. Locking in a mortgage now is not much different than stocking up on wheat and rice. There's a 90% chance that they will cost you 100% or more next year.
I'm not a gambler. If I wanted to roll the dice with my life savings, I would just go to Vegas and bet it all on Black. I bought physical silver because it became obvious that keeping money in a savings account was becoming an even bigger gamble than investing in the stock market. That was 6 months ago. Today, a savings account isn't even a straight up game of chance... It's more like an endless russian roulette tournament.
To answer the questions being posed: Anyone who understands the true fundamental reason for holding gold and silver (store of value and purchasing power, NOT speculative gains) isn't concerned much with the fiat price of the metals. It's all about purchasing power.
ReplyDeleteThe reason we're likely to see a rather massive drop in the fiat price before the "end times" is that the current monetary policy is in place to fight debt deflation. Don't let the absurd policies of the last year fool you all into believing that the consumer and private sectors aren't still deleveraging. It won't take much more than central banks taking their feet off the gas pedal to result in the next deflationary headfake scare.
I'm not saying go sell your physical metals (because trading them for fiat is flat out foolishness), but anyone holding leveraged paper positions should be wary of the possibility of a huge selloff this year.
Like I said before, if the USD fiat price goes from $50 to $30 and then to $100, $1,000, $100,000, etc. then the drop to $30 was merely a minor counter trend in the major trend.
The major trend is up. Anyone with two eyeballs can see this. But every major trend has counter trends and those who practice irrational exuberance will get burned in any market.
If you're holding paper at $41, then hopefully you're taking some of those profits and buying physical or at least hedging with some very cheap out of the money puts.
I think I'll sell some silver and buy some YUAN paper.
ReplyDelete"Historic" Congress/OWEF***BAMA cut 38 Billion...... Now What?????????????????????? This reality TV show has take a turn for the worse. How do I change the channel???
ReplyDeleteI imagine silver will drop a few percent on Sunday when the market opens, due to the last minute $38 billion budget cuts. But I don't think it will take long for people to realize that we are still just as screwed financially as we were a week ago. Not long at all... Maybe a few hours...
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of talk about "When do I sell my Silver".
ReplyDeleteI think this is an "elite" scam to make weak hands panic when the price reaches $50 (when the Hunt brothers crashed).
As an "investor" not a "trader" I believe the only time you will sell some of your Silver is if you want to buy a new car (as an example) or some other "thing" that you want.
What you must never do is sell ALL of your Silver for FIAT currency.
There will never be a time to sell unless FIAT is replaced with REAL money.
So there is no need to constantly think "when do I sell".
To be honest, I'm not sure there will be a sell-off of silver even with the budget going through and the dollar recovering much.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
There are still only a small percentage of people in PM's. Asian demand is massive and most people who are into silver aren't getting out because they know what is coming down the road with fiat currency.
Small pullback? Maybe. Perhaps nothing, however.
Sprott believe the gold:Sil ratio will go to 10:1, historic is 16:1 as you all know. Mike Maloney, when to sell, v good vid.
ReplyDeletehttp://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2011/04/mike-maloney-when-to-sell-your.html
seclartrends.blogspot.com
SGS, Master, perhaps your most interesting of the many interesting post you've made. Should I hedge at $50.
ReplyDelete"If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30"
a 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
Plz explain this possible mother of all buying opportunities? A retrace to 30 would make us (you the master of the universe and cement your legend)
Save my skin and make us RICH..
Your humble Minion
1234 blastoff
ReplyDeleteSGS, Master
ReplyDeletePlz explain this as your humble servant wonders if we should hedge or plan for the mother off all buying opportunities.
"If we run to $50, then selloff to $25-30"
a 50% selloff will not happened after $50, infact me thinks we will see $75 and pully back to $60's...or the world ends, whichever comes first in the next 12 months from here.
Plz cement your legend and save my life savings!